Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices written by L. Alan Winters and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-03-08 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.
Download or read book Primary commodity markets and models written by Walter C. Labys and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.
Download or read book The Economics of Primary Commodities written by David Sapsford and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1994 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contributions by leading economists in the area of the economic analysis of primary commodity markets are brought together in this volume. It provides a detailed coverage of major recent developments in the economic analysis of primary commodity markets, including modelling and policy issues. The essays should provide the reader with an overview of the current state of the art and also a useful platform on which future research might be based.
Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1984 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Primary commodity markets in a world model system written by Francis Gerard Adams and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis written by O. Güvenen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com modity markets.
Download or read book International Commodity Market Models written by Orhan Güvenen and published by Reviews of United Kingdom Stat. This book was released on 1991 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of a series, this volume comprises a selection of methodology-oriented papers presented at the 25th International Conference of the Applied Econometrics Association on International Commodity Market Modelling which took place at the World Bank, Washington, 1988.
Download or read book Recent Developments in Commodity Modeling written by Walter C. Labys and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1988 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A review of the state of the art of Bank commodity modeling for forecasting and analysis of supplies, demand, and prices.
Download or read book Commodity Modeling and Pricing written by Peter V. Schaeffer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Models of Primary Commodity Prices written by C. L. Gilbert and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard linear model fails to account for primary commodity price movements in any significant area, so it is important to do more empirical work to learn to which commodities this nonlinear model applies.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets written by Viviana Fanelli and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-01-14 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides a basic and self-contained introduction to the ideas underpinning financial modelling of products in commodity markets. The book offers a concise and operational vision of the main models used to represent, assess and simulate real assets and financial positions related to the commodity markets. It discusses statistical and mathematical tools important for estimating, implementing and calibrating quantitative models used for pricing and trading commodity-linked products and for managing basic and complex portfolio risks. Key features: Provides a step-by-step guide to the construction of pricing models, and for the applications of such models for the analysis of real data Written for scholars from a wide range of scientific fields, including economics and finance, mathematics, engineering and statistics, as well as for practitioners Illustrates some important pricing models using real data sets that will be commonly used in financial markets
Download or read book A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy written by Marian Radetzki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revised edition of A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy, 2017.
Download or read book The Comovement in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
