Download or read book Pricing China s Crude Oil Futures written by Ming Dong and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-02 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world oil prices have raised and fluctuated a lot during the past ten years. In order to hedge the risks, developing Chinese petroleum futures market is important. However, lacking pricing system is a main issue. In this paper, I use the two-factor model and a seemingly unrelated regression method from Gibson & Schwartz (1990) to price China s one-month crude oil future contract. First, I estimate the future prices by assuming that China has the same convenience yield as the U.S. market. Second, I study the possibilities of real convenience yield in China based on macroeconomic analysis. Third, arbitrage theory provides the reasonable future prices. In the end, statistical tests prove that the calculated China s crude oil future prices have the price discovery function for the Daqing spot prices and the ability of hedging international oil shocks. This work should be useful to professioinals in asset pricing and commodity derivatives fields, or anyone else who may be considering commodity market as a interest.
Download or read book Crude Oil Futures Price and Stock Market Returns in Russia and China written by Ekaterina Petrovich and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book China written by Mamdouh G. Salameh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The single most important driver of shifting dynamics in world oil markets is China. It alone will continue to account for most of the world demand growth throughout this decade and probably the next. By October 2013, China's net oil imports are projected to exceed those of the United States on a monthly basis and by 2014 on an annual basis, making it the largest importer of oil in the world. In order to satisfy its thirst for oil, China has aggressively used its financial reserves to offer billions in development credit, underwritten with oil, especially in Africa, Latin America, and even Russia. From energy security point of view, one of the biggest threats to maintaining a stable oil price in the long run will be satisfying growth in Chinese demand. That is what is putting pressure on prices. An optimistic oil price could range from $100 to $130a barrel. However, this paper will argue that in a supply-constrained world and with OPEC's spare capacity continuing to shrink, oil is unlikely to spend much time hovering around that price range. It will suggest that prices will continue to spike over the next five years occasionally reaching $200/barrel in order to keep oil demand in check. The paper will also argue that the global economy can at most sustain oil prices that represent just about 6% of GDP translating into $137 a barrel of Brent crude by 2015, $156 by 2020, and $241 by 2035. It will conclude that China's steep-rising oil demand, its search for new sources of oil and also its acquiring of oil assets around the world will ultimately give it the final say on the oil price globally.
Download or read book China s Oil Future written by Randall W. Hardy and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-13 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much has been written recently about China's emergence as a potential oil power. Comparisons have ranged from those that picture China as another Middle East, with a Middle East-like impact on future global oil markets, to more modest images of an oil-producing nation that can meet its rapidly expanding internal needs through the late 1980s and still have some oil for export to its neighbor, Japan. Yet to fulfill even the latter prediction, the People's Republic of China will have to surmount a series of substantial political and technical obstacles. This book identifies those constraints, assesses the likelihood of China's overcoming them, examines the incentives for increasing Chinese petroleum exports, and analyzes the role such exports could play in Peking's foreign policy.
Download or read book Opening Up China s Markets Of Crude Oil And Petroleum Products Theoretical Research And Reform Solutions written by Hong Sheng and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive and unique perspective on China's oil and natural gas industry and a practical roadmap to reforms.The book begins with a thorough examination of the status quo of China's oil and natural gas industry. It explores the evolution, transition, and characteristics of the oil industry of China, and unveils the problems that caused ineffectiveness of the oil and petroleum products market, namely, the dominance of monopoly enterprises, price regulation, and restriction to entry. It provides an insightful analysis on the efficiency losses and welfare losses the monopoly system brings to the society as the current system distorts income distribution, violates the principle of fairness, and stands against the market rules and the legal pillars of the Chinese constitution. This book argues that the monopoly system in the oil industry of China results in a variety of toxic influences and that reforms are needed. It then offers a roadmap to reforms in the oil and petroleum products market in an incremental fashion.The findings and proposals of the Chinese version of this book have proved to be successful, as they led to immediate shifts in the policies of the Chinese authorities. This book provides valuable insights into the urgency involved in carrying out reforms in the oil and petroleum products market in China, with concrete and up-to-date statistics, comprehensive and detailed analyses, and authoritative and authentic sources.
Download or read book China s Footprint in Global Commodity Markets written by Ms.Christina Kolerus and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China’s economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impact differs across commodity markets, with industrial production shocks having a substantial impact on metals and crude oil prices and less so on food prices. The size of the impact on the prices of specific commodities varies with China’s footprint in the market for those commodities; the empirical estimates indicate that, over a one-year horizon, a 1 percent increase in industrial production leads to a 5–7 percent rise in metals and fuel prices. The surprise component in Chinese industrial production announcements has a bearing on commodity prices that is comparable in magnitude to that of industrial production surprises in the United States, and this impact is much larger when global risk aversion is high.
Download or read book Peaks Spikes and Barrels written by Ms.Malika Pant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Download or read book Trading Activity and Price Discovery of the Chinese Crude Oil Futures Contract written by Petko S. Kalev and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using high-frequency intraday data sampled on half-a-second frequencies for the Chinese crude oil futures contract (SC), we examine and compare trading dynamics of SC with both WTI and Brent oil futures contracts. We use a modified volume method to create a continuous SC time series, facilitating comparisons to both WTI and Brent oil securities. First, we present descriptive results for SC trading characteristics for the three trading sub-periods (morning, afternoon, and overnight sessions). Next, we examine the key market quality variables: price volatility, intraday trading volume, and liquidity for any of the trading sessions. Finally, we perform a price discovery analysis using the state-of-the-art Information Leadership Share metric. In contrast to the prior literature, we find that the SC dominates the WTI throughout all trading sessions. The Brent dominates the SC during the overnight session. However, the SC contributes more to the price discovery process during both daily trading periods. Our findings are of interest to oil traders, commodity investors, futures exchange officials, and financial risk managers seeking to understand or engage with the Chinese oil futures markets.
Download or read book China s Rising Oil Consumption and its Impact on the Global Oilmarket written by Carina Schlesing and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-02-20 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Geography / Earth Science - Geology, Mineralogy, Soil Science, grade: 1,3, RWTH Aachen University, language: English, abstract: 1. Introduction 1.1 Way of Posing a Problem Today’s global economy depends on nearly one single resource: oil! Oil is the main driving force of the global economy. The global hunger for raw materials is increasing particularly in fast growing economies such as China, India or even Brazil. Globalization, the growth of population and the ever-advancing technologies are the main reasons for this growth in demand. Experts estimate that for example, China’s demand for energy will triple by 2020. Commodities, especially oil, are scarce goods on the world markets. This becomes apparent, above all, by soaring commodity prices. In the next few years the pace of growth in China’s demand for oil could be a key factor contributing to further increases in the prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products. Those price increases could affect the demand for petroleum and influence the investment decisions of refiners worldwide. Oil is a finite resource. The following paper deals with the question of the effects and impact on the global oil market associated with the rising demand for raw materials and economic growth in China. 1.2 Research Objective and Thesis organisation The aim of this bachelor thesis is to clarify the effects of to the growing demand for oil on the global market. China, a country that is currently experiencing an incredible rate of economic growth, serves as a dynamic example. This situation results in a series of questions the answers of which must be based on an extensive knowledge of the global resources of raw materials to produce energy and also on their availability. It also needs some insight into the regularities of the market for energies, its way of operation and its variables. This thesis starts by describing the formation of oil to make transparent that the genesis of oil comprises a long time interval, which makes oil therefore a precious good. Oil consumption as well as the distinction between the terms reserves and resources play here an important role. The social relevance of oil and the oil peak in the subsequent chapters, are an important basis to understand price and market developments. The chapter "Trading with Oil-the global oil market” is to give an insight and overview of the current oil market and the underlying system. ......
Download or read book Overcoming Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices written by and published by UN. This book was released on 2007 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soaring oil prices are threatening the prospects of millions of people in the developing world and posing an unforeseen challenge to the Millennium Development Goals. This report examines the impact of rising oil prices since 2003 on developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It represents a set of policy options and priorities that can help reduce national vulnerability to future price rises and protect the interests of the poor. The report also includes field studies carried out in rural and urban areas of four countries: China, India, Indonesia and Lao PDR.
Download or read book Three essays on Hedging in China s oil futures market Gold oil and stock market price volatility links in the USA and Currency fluctuations in S E and Pacific Asia written by Wei Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hedging in China s Oil Futures Market Gold Oil and Stock Market Price Volatility Links in the USA And Currency Fluctuations in S E and Pacific Asia written by Wei Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis empirically evaluates three key financial and macroeconomic issues: Essay 1 examines the effectiveness of China fuel oil futures in hedging a domestic spot fuel oil position as well as hedging a spot position in the Singapore fuel oil market. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this kind. Dynamic Bi-variate GARCH and constant volatility models are estimated to derive the optimal hedging ratios and hedging effectiveness of China fuel oil futures. That effectiveness is assessed by several criteria, for both in- and out-of-sample periods. Essay 2 aims to investigate the relationship between the oil, gold and US stock markets. By employing a Tri-variate GARCH(1,1) model, this is the first study to explore how volatility is transmitted among those three markets. Additionally, this is the first study to compare Tri-variate GARCH and Bi-variate GARCH modelling strategies as vehicles for determining the volatility interrelations between these markets. Essay 3 explores the power of conventional macroeconomic factors to explain the currency fluctuations over recent years, including the 1997 crises, in six Asian countries. Two regimes Markov Switching TGARCH and constant volatility models are used to determine the causes of market pressures on exchange rates, and the probability of the timing of a currency attack. The Markov Switching models do not require an ex-ante definition of a threshold value to distinguish stable and volatile state like Logit models do, and they can capture the appreciating currency attacks as well as the depreciating ones. The Markov Switching models are also compared with Multinomial Logit models in their ability to detect crises.
Download or read book Crude Volatility written by Robert McNally and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Download or read book Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Download or read book An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Download or read book GUIDE TO CHINESE CLIMATE POLICY 2022 written by DAVID SANDALOW. and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
