Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Download or read book Option Volatility Pricing Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques written by Sheldon Natenberg and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1994-08 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a thorough discussion of volatility, the most important aspect of options trading. Shows how to identify mispriced options and to construct volatility and "delta neutral" spreads.

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Download or read book Volatility Trading website written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.

Download or read book Crude Volatility written by Robert McNally and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

Download or read book Explaining and evaluating price volatility and price levels in world agricultural markets written by Palina Moleva and published by Cuvillier Verlag. This book was released on 2017-02-15 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The worldwide explosions of agricultural commodity and staple food prices in the years 2007/08 and the subsequent recession-related decline in 2009 have not only surprised many market observers, but has also caused an intensive discussion about the causes, the consequences and the necessary policy responses. The new price spike in the years 2011 until 2013 and the current price crisis, especially for dairy and meat products since 2014/15, revived this debate again and raised the question, of how to explain and to evaluate such extreme level shifts and volatilities of agricultural prices, and where the prices move in the long run.

Download or read book Multi Asset Risk Modeling written by Morton Glantz and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multi-Asset Risk Modeling describes, in a single volume, the latest and most advanced risk modeling techniques for equities, debt, fixed income, futures and derivatives, commodities, and foreign exchange, as well as advanced algorithmic and electronic risk management. Beginning with the fundamentals of risk mathematics and quantitative risk analysis, the book moves on to discuss the laws in standard models that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and talks about current and future banking regulation. Importantly, it also explores algorithmic trading, which currently receives sparse attention in the literature. By giving coherent recommendations about which statistical models to use for which asset class, this book makes a real contribution to the sciences of portfolio management and risk management. - Covers all asset classes - Provides mathematical theoretical explanations of risk as well as practical examples with empirical data - Includes sections on equity risk modeling, futures and derivatives, credit markets, foreign exchange, and commodities

Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Download or read book Oil Price Uncertainty written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2012 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.

Download or read book Advanced Fixed Income Analysis written by Moorad Choudhry and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each new chapter of the Second Edition covers an aspect of the fixed income market that has become relevant to investors but is not covered at an advanced level in existing textbooks. This is material that is pertinent to the investment decisions but is not freely available to those not originating the products. Professor Choudhry's method is to place ideas into contexts in order to keep them from becoming too theoretical. While the level of mathematical sophistication is both high and specialized, he includes a brief introduction to the key mathematical concepts. This is a book on the financial markets, not mathematics, and he provides few derivations and fewer proofs. He draws on both his personal experience as well as his own research to bring together subjects of practical importance to bond market investors and analysts. - Presents practitioner-level theories and applications, never available in textbooks - Focuses on financial markets, not mathematics - Covers relative value investing, returns analysis, and risk estimation

Download or read book Basic Option Volatility Strategies written by Sheldon Natenberg and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-09-27 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now you can learn directly from Sheldon Natenberg! In this unique multimedia course, Natenberg will explain the most popular option pricing strategies. Follow along as this trading legend walks you through the calculations and key elements of option volatility in this video, companion book, and self-test combination. Get The Full Impact Of Every Word Of This Traders' Hall Of Fame Presentation. You'll learn: Implied volatility and how it is calculated, so you can find the best positions; What assumptions are driving an options pricing model to be ahead of the trade; Proven techniques for comparing price to value to increase your number of winning trade; How you can use probability to estimate option prices to increase trading income. Spending time with a trading legend is usually a dream for most traders, but this is your opportunity to get the inside tactics of one of the most sought-after educators in options. With the personal touch of his presentation, Natenberg's educational tool gives all traders, beginner to advanced, access to the powerful insights that can bring ongoing option trading success.

Download or read book The Science of Algorithmic Trading and Portfolio Management written by Robert Kissell and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-10-01 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Science of Algorithmic Trading and Portfolio Management, with its emphasis on algorithmic trading processes and current trading models, sits apart from others of its kind. Robert Kissell, the first author to discuss algorithmic trading across the various asset classes, provides key insights into ways to develop, test, and build trading algorithms. Readers learn how to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers, and acquire the knowledge to implement electronic trading systems. This valuable book summarizes market structure, the formation of prices, and how different participants interact with one another, including bluffing, speculating, and gambling. Readers learn the underlying details and mathematics of customized trading algorithms, as well as advanced modeling techniques to improve profitability through algorithmic trading and appropriate risk management techniques. Portfolio management topics, including quant factors and black box models, are discussed, and an accompanying website includes examples, data sets supplementing exercises in the book, and large projects. - Prepares readers to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers. - Helps readers design systems to manage algorithmic risk and dark pool uncertainty. - Summarizes an algorithmic decision making framework to ensure consistency between investment objectives and trading objectives.

Download or read book Finance and Risk Management for International Logistics and the Supply Chain written by Stephen Gong and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance and Risk Management for International Logistics and the Supply Chain presents a detailed overview of financial and risk management tools, activity-based costing, and multi-criteria decision-making, providing comprehensive guidance for those researching and working in logistics and supply chain management. The book breaks new ground, combining the expertise of leading authorities to analyze and navigate the funding components for these critical transportation functions. As the international logistics and supply chain transportation fields have recently received heavy investments, this research and the theory behind it provide a timely update on risk management, finance and legal and environmental impacts. Users will find sections that address the wide-ranging issues related to this emerging field that are presented from an international and holistic perspective. - Provides a valuable reference covering the full slate of financial issues of interest to global players in the international transport, logistics and supply chain industries - Covers a truly international perspective, addressing a diverse variety of worldwide transport, logistics and supply chain contexts - Features finance and risk-management strategies related to the banking industry, exchange rates, fuel prices, climate-related funding, freight derivatives and legal aspects