Download or read book Price Dividend Ratio and Long run Stock Returns a Score Driven State Space Model written by Davide Delle Monache and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices, where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying matrices. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship between the price dividend ratio, expected stock returns and expected dividend growth in the US since 1880. We find a significant increase in the long-run equilibrium value of the price dividend ratio over time, associated with a fall in the long-run expected rate of return on stocks. The latter can be attributed mainly to a decrease in the natural rate of interest, as the long-run risk premium has only slightly fallen.

Download or read book Price Dividend Ratio and Long run Stock Returns written by Davide Delle Monache and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stock Market Equilibrium and the Dividend Yield written by Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.

Download or read book Price Dividend Ratio Factors written by Ravi Jagannathan and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the empirical support for a broad class of long run risk models using information in factors extracted through principal component analysis of the covariance matrix of log price dividend ratios of twenty five equity portfolios formed on Size and Book-to-Market. We identify two price-dividend ratio factor proxies for economy wide long run risk, one tracking the volatility of the growth rate in economy wide aggregate consumption, and the other predicting the growth rates in the stock index portfolio dividends and aggregate consumption, consistent with the implications of these models. We show that that the long run risk factor driving expected consumption growth is not recoverable from the cross section of excess returns alone. The price dividend ratio factors perform better than the stock index price dividend ratio and the corporate yield spread, and has information in addition to what is in the slope of the term structure of interest rates, in forecasting the growth rate in real time consumption and stock index dividends. The covariance of excess returns with factor innovations explain the cross section of excess returns on size, book/market, earnings/price ratio, long term reversal, and short term reversal sorted portfolios in a manner robust to look-ahead and useless factor biases. Our findings suggest that the widely used Fama and French (1993) three factor model and the long run risk models studied in the literature are not necessarily inconsistent with each other. They may be representing the same underlying phenomenon, but emphasizing different aspects of reality.

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Download or read book Long Run Risks Price Dividend Ratio Factors written by Ravi Jagannathan and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that long run consumption risk models imply that the covariance matrix of the logarithm of price to dividend (P/D) ratios of stocks has a strict factor structure. Factor analysis of the P/D ratios of 25 portfolios formed by sorting stocks based on their size and book to market ratio during the 1943 to 2008 reveals two significant factors. Consistent with theory, these factors predict growth in US aggregate consumption & dividends and consumption growth volatility, and explain the cross section of average excess returns on portfolios based on size, book/market, long term reversal, short term reversal, and earnings to price ratios -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Download or read book Dividends Versus Stock Repurchases and Long Run Stock Returns Under Heterogeneous Beliefs written by Onur Bayar and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze a firm's choice between dividend payments and stock repurchases under heterogeneous beliefs and the subsequent long-term stock return performance of firms adopting the two forms of payout. Firm insiders, owning a certain fraction of its equity, choose between paying out its cash available through a dividend payment or a stock repurchase, as well as the level of investment in its project. Outsiders have heterogeneous beliefs about project success, and may have beliefs different from firm insiders as well. In equilibrium, the firm distributes value through dividends alone; through a repurchase alone; or through a combination. We characterize the conditions under which each form of payout occurs, as well as the firm's optimal scale of investment. We show that, in some situations, the firm may raise external financing to fund its payout in equilibrium, with the form of external financing (equity or debt) chosen jointly with its method of payout and scale of investment. Finally, we develop a number of new results characterizing a firm's long-run stock returns following dividend payments and stocks repurchases, and show how, consistent with the evidence, positive or negative long-run stock returns following such payouts may arise in equilibrium.

Download or read book Price Dividend Ratio Factors written by Ravi Jagannathan and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Demographic trends the dividend price ratio and the predictability of long run stock market returns written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dpt, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of dpt from this long-run component explain transitory but persistent fluctuations in stock market returns. The relation between MY and dpt is a prediction of an overlapping generation model. The joint significance of MY and dpt in long-horizon forecasting regressions for market returns explain the mixed evidence on the ability of dpt to predict stock returns and provide a model-based interpretation of statistical corrections for breaks in the mean of this financial ratio.

Download or read book Demographic Trends the Dividend price Ratio and the Pedictability of Long run Stock Market Returns written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Long Run Factors and Fluctuations in Dividend Price written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamic dividend growth model linking the log dividend yield to future expected dividend growth and stock market returns has been extensively used in the literature for forecasting stock returns. The empirical evidence on the performance of the model is mixed as its strength varies with the sample choice. This model is derived on the assumption of stationary log dividend-price ratio. The empirical validity of such hypothesis has been challenged in the recent literature (Lettauamp;Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008) with strong evidence on a time varying mean, due to breaks, in this financial ratio. In this paper, we show that the slowly evolving mean toward which the dividend price ratio is reverting is driven by a demographic factor and a technological trend. We also show that an empirical model using information in long-run factors overperforms virtually all alternative models proposed in the literature within the framework of the dynamic dividend growth model. Finally, we exploit the exogeneity and predictability of the demographic factor to simulate the equity risk premium up to 2050.

Download or read book Persistence of the Price Dividend Ratio in a Present Value Model of Stock Prices written by Adam Golinski and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find evidence of antipersistence in returns and dividend growth, while the price-dividend ratio appears to exhibit nonstationary long memory, which seems contradictory in the present-value context. We reconcile these findings by showing that the aggregation of antipersistent expected dividend growth and expected returns gives the price-dividend ratio non-standard properties: a) asymptotically, the moving average coefficients decay hyperbolically at the same rate as the underlying antipersistent expected dividend growth and expected returns series; b) the spectral density at the zero frequency is finite and bounded away from zero as in short memory processes; c) close to zero frequency the spectral density is convex, which can imitate long memory in finite samples. Taking these features into account, we extend and estimate the present-value model by allowing for fractionally integrated processes in expected returns and dividend growth. We show this improves the model's forecasting power in-sample and out-of-sample.

Download or read book Growth Expectations Dividend Yields and Future Stock Returns written by Zhi Da and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the dynamic version of the Gordon growth model, the long-run expected return on stocks, stock yield, is the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We construct a measure of stock yield based on sell-side analysts' near-term earnings forecasts that predicts US stock index returns well, with an out-of-sample R-squared that is consistently above 2% at monthly frequency over our sample period. Stock yield also predicts future stock index returns in the US and other G7 countries and returns of US stock portfolios formed by sorting stocks based on firm characteristics, at various horizons. The findings are consistent with a single dominant factor driving expected returns on stocks over different holding periods. That single factor extracted from the cross section of stock yields using the Kelly and Pruitt (2013) partial regressions method predicts stock index returns better. The performance of the Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) latent factor model for forecasting stock returns improves significantly when stock yield is included as an imperfect observation of expected return on stocks. Consistent with folk wisdom, stock returns are more predictable coming out of a recession. Our measure performs as well in predicting stock returns as the implied cost of capital, another common stock yield measure that uses additional information.

Download or read book Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth written by Martin Lettau and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, despite the failure of the dividend-price ratio to uncover such variation. In addition, these dividend forecasts are found to covary with changing forecasts of excess stock returns. The variation in expected dividend growth we uncover is positively correlated with changing forecasts of excess returns and occurs at business cycle frequencies, those ranging from one to six years. Because positively correlated fluctuations in expected dividend growth and expected returns have offsetting affects on the log dividend-price ratio, the results imply that both the market risk-premium and expected dividend growth vary considerably more than what can be revealed using the log dividend-price ratio alone as a predictive variable.

Download or read book Demographic Trends the Dividend price Ration and the Predictability of Long run Stock Market Returns written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stock Market Returns in the Long Run written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the forward-looking long-term equity risk by extrapolating the way it participated in the real economy. We decompose the 1926-2000 historical equity returns into supply factors including inflation, earnings, dividends, price to earnings ratio, dividend payout ratio, book value, return on equity, and GDP per capita. There are several key findings: First, the growth in corporate productivity measured by earnings is in line with the growth of overall economic productivity. Second, P/E increases account for only a small portion of the total return of equity (1.25% of the total 10.70%). The bulk of the return is attributable to dividend payments and nominal earnings growth (including inflation and real earnings growth). Third, the increase in factor share of equity relative to the overall economy can be more than fully attributed to the increase in the P/E ratio. Fourth, there is a secular decline in the dividend yield and payout ratio, rendering dividend growth alone a poor measure of corporate profitability and future growth. Contrary to several recent studies, our supply side model forecast of the equity risk premium is only slightly lower than the pure historical return estimate. The long-term equity risk premium (relative to the long-term government bond yield) is estimated to be about 6% arithmetically, and 4% geometrically. Our estimate is in line with both the historical supply measures of the public corporations (i.e., earnings) and the overall economic productivity (GDP per capita).

Download or read book Changes in the Composition of Publicly Traded Firms written by Stephan Jank and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio is less persistent, in-sample evidence for predictability is more pronounced, there is greater parameter stability in the predictive regression (particularly during the 1990s), and there is evidence of out-of-sample predictability.