Download or read book Price and Liquidity Discovery Jumps and Co jumps Using High Frequency Data from the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Vincenzo Maini and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis provides a novel contribution to the literature of microstructural theory and discovery models. The main contributions are twofolds. First, we move from price to liquidity discovery and explicitly study the dynamic behavior of a direct measure of liquidity observed from the foreign exchange markets. We extend the framework presented by Hasbrouck (1991) and Dufour and Engle (2000) by allowing the coefficients of both liquidity and trade activity to be time dependent. We find that liquidity time is characterized by a strong stochastic component and that liquidity shocks tend to have temporary effects when transactional time is low or equivalently when trading volatility is high. We then analyze the contribution of liquidity to systemic risk and contagion and, in particular, assess the price impact of liquidity shocks. We extend the approach in Dumitru and Urga (2012) and present a co-jump testing procedure, robust to microstructural noise and spurious detection, and based on a number of combinations of univariate tests for jumps. The proposed test allows us to distinguish between transitory-permanent and endogenous-exogenous co-jumps and determine a causality effect between price and liquidity. In the empirical application, we find evidence of contemporaneous and permanent co-jumps but little signs of exogenous co-jumps between the price and the available liquidity of EUR/USD FX spot during the week from May 3 to May 7, 2010.
Download or read book Real time Price Discovery in Stock Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the U.S. economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding also helps explain the apparent time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news announcement effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Hence, while our results confirm previous unconditional rankings suggesting that bond markets almost uniformly react most strongly to macroeconomic news, followed by foreign exchange and then equity markets, importantly when conditioning on the state of the economy the foreign exchange and equity markets appear equally responsive. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the new high-frequency data, we also document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Download or read book High Frequency Trading and Price Jumps in the Stock Market written by Thibaut Moyaert and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we investigate liquidity supply and demand around price jumps in a pure order driven stock market using a detailed tick frequency data set on the Euronext 100 index. The advantage of this database is to allow us to disentangle two major evolutions in European financial markets: the emergence of high frequency trading and the implementation of multilateral trading facilities. We generate average 2-minute trading volume interval and assess liquidity dynamics through an extensive set of order book-based measures (liquidity supply) and trade-based measures (liquidity demand). Furthermore, we also consider order submission dynamics and investor types activity around price jumps. We find the origin of market disruptions lies in a low liquidity supply while at the opposite liquidity demand slows down. All our results suggest a higher involvement of high frequency trading activity in the market around price jumps. To emphasize our findings, we conduct bidirectional Granger causality tests that support our results.
Download or read book Micro Effects of Macro Announcements written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or 'news') produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.
Download or read book Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery written by Masahiro Yamada and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether the forex market quality, measured by the speed of price discovery and liquidity recovery after macro statistics announcements, has improved using the EBS high-frequency data for 20 years. Considering the recent rise of computer-based trading, a popular conjecture is that the market quality has improved. Our empirical analysis, however, suggests that an improving trend is only observed in price discovery. Moreover, two measures are negatively correlated because an increasing number of traders improves liquidity but slows down price discovery. Theoretically, the latter finding implies that "fast" traders have a poor interpretation of how the news will impact prices.
Download or read book Real Time Price Discovery in Stock Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets written by Torben G. Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the U.S. economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing quot;cash flowquot; and quot;discount ratequot; effects for equity valuation. This finding also helps explain the apparent time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news announcement effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Hence, while our results confirm previous unconditional rankings suggesting that bond markets almost uniformly react most strongly to macroeconomic news, followed by foreign exchange and then equity markets, importantly when conditioning on the state of the economy the foreign exchange and equity markets appear equally responsive. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the new high-frequency data, we also document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects.
Download or read book Information Shocks Liquidity Shocks Jumps and Price Discovery written by George J. Jiang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps. Our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks, such as changes in the bid-ask spread and market depth, have significant predictive power for jumps. The predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks. Finally, we present evidence that post-jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement.
Download or read book Real Time Price Discovery in Global Stock Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets written by Torben G. Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news.
Download or read book Detecting and Forecasting High Frequency Price Jumps in the Stock Market written by Thibaut Moyaert and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we investigate some predictable patterns in high frequency price jumps using trades, orders and quotes data on the Euronext 100 Index. A fixed volume chart allows us to control for trading volume effects and avoid non trading issues at high frequency aggregation. We detect jumps through four different methods that encompass constant volatility, time-varying volatility and periodicity. Our forecasting model is a logistic model adjusted to rare events. At an average 2-minute trading volume frequency, we find that price jumps are mainly driven by liquidity gaps in the order book. The origin of those gaps is still an open question. They may be due to order cancellations or to a low resiliency of the stock market. Our results suggest that market participants could take advantage of some predictable patterns in price jumps in order to enhance their hedging or investment strategies.
Download or read book Market Microstructure in Emerging and Developed Markets written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-07-31 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the dynamic area of finance known as market microstructure Interest in market microstructure has grown dramatically in recent years due largely in part to the rapid transformation of the financial market environment by technology, regulation, and globalization. Looking at market transactions at the most granular level—and taking into account market structure, price discovery, information flows, transaction costs, and the trading process—market microstructure also forms the basis of high-frequency trading strategies that can help professional investors generate profits and/or execute optimal transactions. Part of the Robert W. Kolb Series in Finance, Market Microstructure skillfully puts this discipline in perspective and examines how the working processes of markets impact transaction costs, prices, quotes, volume, and trading behavior. Along the way, it offers valuable insights on how specific features of the trading process like the existence of intermediaries or the environment in which trading takes place affect the price formation process. Explore issues including market structure and design, transaction costs, information flows, and disclosure Addresses market microstructure in emerging markets Covers the legal and regulatory issues impacting this area of finance Contains contributions from both experienced financial professionals and respected academics in this field If you're looking to gain a firm understanding of market microstructure, this book is the best place to start.
Download or read book Trading and Clearing in Fast paced Markets written by Shihao Yu and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Download or read book Micro Effects of Macro Announcements written by Torben G. Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or 'news') produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.
Download or read book Understanding Jumps in High Frequency Digital Asset Markets written by Danial Saef and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While attention is a predictor for digital asset prices, and jumps in Bitcoin prices are well-known, we know little about its alternatives. Studying high frequency crypto data gives us the unique possibility to confirm that cross market digital asset returns are driven by high frequency jumps clustered around black swan events, resembling volatility and trading volume seasonalities. Regressions show that intra-day jumps significantly influence end of day returns in size and direction. This provides fundamental research for crypto option pricing models. However, we need better econometric methods for capturing the specific market microstructure of cryptos. All calculations are reproducible via the quantlet.com technology.
Download or read book Profitability of Trading in the Direction of Asset Price Jumps Analysis of Multiple Assets and Frequencies written by Milan Fičura and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The profitability of a trading system based on the momentum-like effects of price jumps was tested on the time series of 7 assets (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY exchange rates and Light Crude Oil, E-Mini S&P 500 and VIX Futures), in each case for 7 different frequencies (ranging from 1-Minute to 1-Day), over a period of more than 20 years (for all assets except for the VIX) ending in the second half of 2015. The proposed trading system entered long and short trades in the direction of price jumps, for the closing price of the period in which the jump occurred. The position was held for a fixed number of periods that was optimized on the in-sample period. Jumps were identified with the non-parametric L-Estimator whose inputs (period used for local volatility calculation and confidence level used for jump detection) were also optimized on the in-sample period. The proposed system achieved promising results for the 4 currency markets, especially at the 15-minute and 30-minute frequencies at which 3 out of the 4 tested currencies turned profitable (with highest profits achieved by USD/CHF, followed by EUR/USD and GBP/USD), with the profits totaling up to 30-50% p.a. in the case of a high-leverage scenario, or 15-25% in the case of a low-leverage scenario. Additionally, the 5-minute frequency turned profitable for USD/CHF and the 4-hour frequency for GBP/USD, while the 1-minute frequency was unprofitable in all cases due to the commissions and the 1-day frequency contained too few jumps to make any conclusions. As for the futures markets, the system achieved profits only on the Light Crude Oil market, on the frequencies of 1-hour, 4-hour and 1-day, with the profits totaling up to 20% p.a. in the case of high leverage or 10% p.a. in the case of low leverage. For USD/JPY, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures and VIX Futures the system achieved mostly a loss. We attribute this (in the latter two cases) to the effect of a rising market risk premium in the case of negative jumps, going against the jump-momentum effect used by the system.
Download or read book Tales of Tails written by Suzanne S. Lee and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the predictability of jumps in currency markets and shows the implications for carry trades. Formulating new currency jump analyses, we propose a general method to estimate the determinants of jump sizes and intensities. We employ a large panel of high-frequency data to reveal significant predictive relationships between currency jumps and national fundamentals. In addition, we identify intraday patterns such as multiple currency jump clustering and time-of-day effects. U.S. macroeconomic information releases - particularly FOMC announcements - lead to currency jumps. Using these jump predictors to construct jump-robust carry trades, investors can mitigate the left tail risks.
Download or read book Price Jump Indicators written by Jan Novotny and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the behavior and performance of multiple price jump indicators across markets and over time. By using high-frequency stock market data we identify clusters of price jump indicators that share similar properties in terms of their performance in that they minimize Type I and Type II errors. We show that clusters of price jump indicators formed over the observations do not exhibit equal size. Clusters are stable across stock market indices and accuracy across price jump indicators are both stable over time. There was no significant change in the composition of clusters associated with market activity and the detected numbers of price jumps are stable over time. The recent financial crisis does not seem to affect the overall jumpiness of mature or emerging stock markets. Our results support the stress testing approach of the Basel III Accords in that the jump component of the volatility process does not need to be treated separately for the purpose of stress testing.
