Download or read book Preference Ambiguity Averse Decision Making Using Robust Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this work, we study decision making with personalized stochastic optimization models. The methods, we propose, develop custom-tailored stochastic optimization models for a specific decision maker, while preserving the robustness of an optimal decision as expressions of the decision maker's attitude towards ambiguity. We present an optimization model using a novel robust preference relationship -- reference-based almost stochastic dominance (RSD). We use decision maker's utility function as a reference to individualize constraints of stochastic dominance. The concept of RSD addresses the two problems in utility-based decision making: (i) ambiguity and inaccuracy in characterizing the decision maker's individual risk attitude, (ii) over-conservativeness of stochastic dominance representing general properties of risk aversion. The RSD rule reveals the maximum dominance level quantifying the robustness of the decision maker's preference between alternative choices. We develop an approximation model using Bernstein polynomials, show the asymptotic convergence of its optimal value and set of optimal solutions to the true counterparts as the degree of Bernstein polynomials increases, and analyze the convergence rate of its feasible region. We next develop a cut-generation algorithm to solve the approximation model. Finally, we further adapt this cut-generation algorithm to seek a valid option most robustly preferable to a random benchmark. The effectiveness and computational complexity of the model are illustrated using a portfolio optimization problem. We study the sensitivity of the personalized stochastic optimization models with regards to risk entangled with the decision maker's ambiguous preference itself. We present a bi-objective stochastic optimization model --expected utility and sensitivity-averse maximization (ESM), incorporating classical risk-aversion and sensitivity analysis with regards to decision maker's preference. Unlike classical sensitivity analysis approaches which are post-analyses after optimization, ESM incorporates sensitivity analysis in the optimization procedure in terms of the second objective function. It thus allows to produce solutions which are both risk-averse in the classical sense and sensitivity-averse with regards to ambiguity in the decision maker's preference. ESM adapts the sensitivity measure (SMU) from the general Bayesian sensitivity analysis to build connection between classical expected utility maximization and the sensitivity aversion. We develop two solution methods of ESM. A mixed-integer reformulation is given for a preference maximizer decision maker, while a linear programming reformulation for a risk-averse decision maker. The effect of ESM is illustrated using a homeland security budget allocation problem.
Download or read book Portfolio Management under Stress written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A rigorous presentation of a novel methodology for asset allocation in financial portfolios under conditions of market distress.
Download or read book Uncertainty Ambiguity Aversion and Frechet Mean Preferences written by Electra Petracou and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new class of utility functionals for decision making under uncertainty and ambiguity aversion, the class of Frechet mean preferences. Using a specific metrization of the space of probability measures in terms of the Monge-Wasserstein-Kantorovich metric, we derive explicit expressions of this class of utility functionals, revealing quantitative connections between the concepts of ambiguity or uncertainty aversion and risk aversion. Aside from their use in decision making under uncertainty the Frechet mean utility functionals can be used in the context of group decision making for the description of group preferences.
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Download or read book Financial Markets Theory written by Emilio Barucci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-08 with total page 843 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, presents the economic foundations of financial markets theory from a mathematically rigorous standpoint and offers a self-contained critical discussion based on empirical results. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises, with detailed solutions to selected exercises. Financial Markets Theory covers classical asset pricing theory in great detail, including utility theory, equilibrium theory, portfolio selection, mean-variance portfolio theory, CAPM, CCAPM, APT, and the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Starting from an analysis of the empirical evidence on the theory, the authors provide a discussion of the relevant literature, pointing out the main advances in classical asset pricing theory and the new approaches designed to address asset pricing puzzles and open problems (e.g., behavioral finance). Later chapters in the book contain more advanced material, including on the role of information in financial markets, non-classical preferences, noise traders and market microstructure. This textbook is aimed at graduate students in mathematical finance and financial economics, but also serves as a useful reference for practitioners working in insurance, banking, investment funds and financial consultancy. Introducing necessary tools from microeconomic theory, this book is highly accessible and completely self-contained. Advance praise for the second edition: "Financial Markets Theory is comprehensive, rigorous, and yet highly accessible. With their second edition, Barucci and Fontana have set an even higher standard!"Darrell Duffie, Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University "This comprehensive book is a great self-contained source for studying most major theoretical aspects of financial economics. What makes the book particularly useful is that it provides a lot of intuition, detailed discussions of empirical implications, a very thorough survey of the related literature, and many completely solved exercises. The second edition covers more ground and provides many more proofs, and it will be a handy addition to the library of every student or researcher in the field."Jaksa Cvitanic, Richard N. Merkin Professor of Mathematical Finance, Caltech "The second edition of Financial Markets Theory by Barucci and Fontana is a superb achievement that knits together all aspects of modern finance theory, including financial markets microstructure, in a consistent and self-contained framework. Many exercises, together with their detailed solutions, make this book indispensable for serious students in finance."Michel Crouhy, Head of Research and Development, NATIXIS
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Download or read book Robust Optimization written by Aharon Ben-Tal and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-10 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robust optimization is still a relatively new approach to optimization problems affected by uncertainty, but it has already proved so useful in real applications that it is difficult to tackle such problems today without considering this powerful methodology. Written by the principal developers of robust optimization, and describing the main achievements of a decade of research, this is the first book to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date account of the subject. Robust optimization is designed to meet some major challenges associated with uncertainty-affected optimization problems: to operate under lack of full information on the nature of uncertainty; to model the problem in a form that can be solved efficiently; and to provide guarantees about the performance of the solution. The book starts with a relatively simple treatment of uncertain linear programming, proceeding with a deep analysis of the interconnections between the construction of appropriate uncertainty sets and the classical chance constraints (probabilistic) approach. It then develops the robust optimization theory for uncertain conic quadratic and semidefinite optimization problems and dynamic (multistage) problems. The theory is supported by numerous examples and computational illustrations. An essential book for anyone working on optimization and decision making under uncertainty, Robust Optimization also makes an ideal graduate textbook on the subject.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Convex Optimization written by Stephen P. Boyd and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-03-08 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Convex optimization problems arise frequently in many different fields. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject, and shows in detail how such problems can be solved numerically with great efficiency. The book begins with the basic elements of convex sets and functions, and then describes various classes of convex optimization problems. Duality and approximation techniques are then covered, as are statistical estimation techniques. Various geometrical problems are then presented, and there is detailed discussion of unconstrained and constrained minimization problems, and interior-point methods. The focus of the book is on recognizing convex optimization problems and then finding the most appropriate technique for solving them. It contains many worked examples and homework exercises and will appeal to students, researchers and practitioners in fields such as engineering, computer science, mathematics, statistics, finance and economics.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.
Download or read book Robust Mechanism Design written by Dirk Bergemann and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreword by Eric Maskin (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2007)This volume brings together the collected contributions on the theme of robust mechanism design and robust implementation that Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris have been working on for the past decade. The collection is preceded by a comprehensive introductory essay, specifically written for this volume with the aim of providing the readers with an overview of the research agenda pursued in the collected papers.The introduction selectively presents the main results of the papers, and attempts to illustrate many of them in terms of a common and canonical example, namely a single unit auction with interdependent values. It is our hope that the use of this example facilitates the presentation of the results and that it brings the main insights within the context of an important economic mechanism, namely the generalized second price auction.
Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Download or read book Elicitation of Preferences written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.
Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
