Download or read book Predictive Mathematical Models of the Covid 19 pandemic in ODE SDE framework written by Marcello Colozzo and published by Passerino Editore. This book was released on 2020-10-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article proposes a viral diffusion model (like Covid-19 pandemic) in the ordinary differential equations (ODE) and stochastic differential equations (SDE) framework. The classic models based on the logistic map are analyzed, and then a noise term is introduced that models the behavior of the so-called "deniers". This model fairly faithfully reproduces the Italian situation in today’s period. We then move on to local analysis, arriving at an equation of continuity for what concerns the density of the number of infected in an assigned region. We, therefore, prove a Theorem according to which classical logistics is the most catastrophic of predictions. In a realistic scenario, it is necessary to take into account the inevitable fluctuations in the aforementioned density. This implies a fragmentation of the initial cluster (generated by "patient zero") into an N disjoint sub clusters. For very large N, statistical analysis suggests the use of the two-point correlation function (and more generally, n-points). In principle, an estimate of this function makes it possible to determine the evolution of the pandemic. The distribution of the sub clusters could be fractal, exactly as it happens for the distribution of galaxies starting from a homogeneous and isotropic primordial universe, but with random fluctuations in matter density. This is not surprising, since due to the invariance in scale, fractals have a low "computational cost". The idea that pandemics are cyclical processes, that is, they occur with a given periodicity, would therefore remain corroborated. Marcello Colozzo, laureato in Fisica si occupa sin dal 2008 di didattica online di Matematica e Fisica attraverso il sito web Extra Byte dove vengono eseguite "simulazioni" nell'ambiente di calcolo Mathematica. Negli ultimi anni ha pubblicato vari articoli di fisica matematica e collabora con la rivista Elettronica Open Source. Appassionato lettore di narrativa cyberpunk, ha provato ad eseguire una transizione verso lo stato di "scrittore cyber", pubblicando varie antologie di racconti.
Download or read book Mathematical Epidemiology written by Fred Brauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
Download or read book The Rules of Contagion written by Adam Kucharski and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2020-02-13 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Observer Book of the Year A Times Science Book of the Year A New Statesman Book of the Year A Financial Times Science Book of the Year 'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail 'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times We live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next. Along the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true. Now revised and updated with content on Covid-19.
Download or read book Mathematical Models in Epidemiology written by Fred Brauer and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-10 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.
Download or read book Introduction to the Scenario Approach written by Marco C. Campi and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2018-11-15 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making decisions driven by experience. In this context, a scenario is an observation that comes from the environment, and scenario optimization refers to optimizing decisions over a set of available scenarios. Scenario optimization can be applied across a variety of fields, including machine learning, quantitative finance, control, and identification. This concise, practical book provides readers with an easy access point to make the scenario approach understandable to nonexperts, and offers an overview of various decision frameworks in which the method can be used. It contains numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including systems theory, control, biomedical engineering, economics, and finance. Practitioners can find "easy-to-use recipes," while theoreticians will benefit from a rigorous treatment of the theoretical foundations of the method, making it an excellent starting point for scientists interested in doing research in this field. Introduction to the Scenario Approach will appeal to scientists working in optimization, practitioners working in myriad fields involving decision-making, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.
Download or read book Mathematical Immunology of Virus Infections written by Gennady Bocharov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph concisely but thoroughly introduces the reader to the field of mathematical immunology. The book covers first basic principles of formulating a mathematical model, and an outline on data-driven parameter estimation and model selection. The authors then introduce the modeling of experimental and human infections and provide the reader with helpful exercises. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and graduate students in the field of mathematical biology who wish to be concisely introduced into mathematical immunology.
Download or read book Applications Of Fractional Calculus In Physics written by Rudolf Hilfer and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2000-03-02 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fractional calculus is a collection of relatively little-known mathematical results concerning generalizations of differentiation and integration to noninteger orders. While these results have been accumulated over centuries in various branches of mathematics, they have until recently found little appreciation or application in physics and other mathematically oriented sciences. This situation is beginning to change, and there are now a growing number of research areas in physics which employ fractional calculus.This volume provides an introduction to fractional calculus for physicists, and collects easily accessible review articles surveying those areas of physics in which applications of fractional calculus have recently become prominent.
Download or read book The Psychology of Pandemics written by Steven Taylor and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2019-12 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pandemics are large-scale epidemics that spread throughout the world. Virologists predict that the next pandemic could occur in the coming years, probably from some form of influenza, with potentially devastating consequences. Vaccinations, if available, and behavioral methods are vital for stemming the spread of infection. However, remarkably little attention has been devoted to the psychological factors that influence the spread of pandemic infection and the associated emotional distress and social disruption. Psychological factors are important for many reasons. They play a role in nonadherence to vaccination and hygiene programs, and play an important role in how people cope with the threat of infection and associated losses. Psychological factors are important for understanding and managing societal problems associated with pandemics, such as the spreading of excessive fear, stigmatization, and xenophobia that occur when people are threatened with infection. This book offers the first comprehensive analysis of the psychology of pandemics. It describes the psychological reactions to pandemics, including maladaptive behaviors, emotions, and defensive reactions, and reviews the psychological vulnerability factors that contribute to the spreading of disease and distress. It also considers empirically supported methods for addressing these problems, and outlines the implications for public health planning.
Download or read book An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology written by Maia Martcheva and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-20 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence for COVID 19 written by Diego Oliva and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-19 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a compilation of the most recent implementation of artificial intelligence methods for solving different problems generated by the COVID-19. The problems addressed came from different fields and not only from medicine. The information contained in the book explores different areas of machine and deep learning, advanced image processing, computational intelligence, IoT, robotics and automation, optimization, mathematical modeling, neural networks, information technology, big data, data processing, data mining, and likewise. Moreover, the chapters include the theory and methodologies used to provide an overview of applying these tools to the useful contribution to help to face the emerging disaster. The book is primarily intended for researchers, decision makers, practitioners, and readers interested in these subject matters. The book is useful also as rich case studies and project proposals for postgraduate courses in those specializations.
Download or read book Fractional Differential Equations written by Igor Podlubny and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1998-10-27 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a landmark title in the continuous move from integer to non-integer in mathematics: from integer numbers to real numbers, from factorials to the gamma function, from integer-order models to models of an arbitrary order. For historical reasons, the word 'fractional' is used instead of the word 'arbitrary'.This book is written for readers who are new to the fields of fractional derivatives and fractional-order mathematical models, and feel that they need them for developing more adequate mathematical models.In this book, not only applied scientists, but also pure mathematicians will find fresh motivation for developing new methods and approaches in their fields of research.A reader will find in this book everything necessary for the initial study and immediate application of fractional derivatives fractional differential equations, including several necessary special functions, basic theory of fractional differentiation, uniqueness and existence theorems, analytical numerical methods of solution of fractional differential equations, and many inspiring examples of applications. - A unique survey of many applications of fractional calculus - Presents basic theory - Includes a unified presentation of selected classical results, which are important for applications - Provides many examples - Contains a separate chapter of fractional order control systems, which opens new perspectives in control theory - The first systematic consideration of Caputo's fractional derivative in comparison with other selected approaches - Includes tables of fractional derivatives, which can be used for evaluation of all considered types of fractional derivatives
Download or read book Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology written by Alexander Krämer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-23 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hardly a day goes by without news headlines concerning infectious disease threats. Currently the spectre of a pandemic of influenza A|H1N1 is raising its head, and heated debates are taking place about the pro’s and con’s of vaccinating young girls against human papilloma virus. For an evidence-based and responsible communication of infectious disease topics to avoid misunderstandings and overreaction of the public, we need solid scientific knowledge and an understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases and their control. The aim of our book is to present the reader with the general picture and the main ideas of the subject. The book introduces the reader to methodological aspects of epidemiology that are specific for infectious diseases and provides insight into the epidemiology of some classes of infectious diseases characterized by their main modes of transmission. This choice of topics bridges the gap between scientific research on the clinical, biological, mathematical, social and economic aspects of infectious diseases and their applications in public health. The book will help the reader to understand the impact of infectious diseases on modern society and the instruments that policy makers have at their disposal to deal with these challenges. It is written for students of the health sciences, both of curative medicine and public health, and for experts that are active in these and related domains, and it may be of interest for the educated layman since the technical level is kept relatively low.
Download or read book Identifying Future Disease Hot Spots written by Melinda Moore and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-09-12 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index is intended to inform actions for preparedness and response to infectious disease outbreaks and foster greater resiliency of national health systems worldwide.
Download or read book Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models written by Suzanne Lenhart and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-05-07 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From economics and business to the biological sciences to physics and engineering, professionals successfully use the powerful mathematical tool of optimal control to make management and strategy decisions. Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models thoroughly develops the mathematical aspects of optimal control theory and provides insight into t
Download or read book Dynamical Modeling And Analysis Of Epidemics written by Zhien Ma and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-05-22 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely book covers the basic concepts of the dynamics of epidemic disease, presenting various kinds of models as well as typical research methods and results. It introduces the latest results in the current literature, especially those obtained by highly rated Chinese scholars. A lot of attention is paid to the qualitative analysis of models, the sheer variety of models, and the frontiers of mathematical epidemiology. The process and key steps in epidemiological modeling and prediction are highlighted, using transmission models of HIV/AIDS, SARS, and tuberculosis as application examples.
Download or read book Numerical Mathematics written by Alfio Quarteroni and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to provide the mathematical foundations of numerical methods, to analyze their basic theoretical properties and to demonstrate their performances on examples and counterexamples. Within any specific class of problems, the most appropriate scientific computing algorithms are reviewed, their theoretical analyses are carried out and the expected results are verified using the MATLAB software environment. Each chapter contains examples, exercises and applications of the theory discussed to the solution of real-life problems. While addressed to senior undergraduates and graduates in engineering, mathematics, physics and computer sciences, this text is also valuable for researchers and users of scientific computing in a large variety of professional fields.
Download or read book Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals written by Matt J. Keeling and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-19 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control
