Download or read book Predictive Analytics for Crude Oil Tanker Markets written by Kayhan Babakan and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tanker markets are one of the many markets to experience extreme volatility, historically realizing drastic swings in earnings of up to 260% week over week. This volatility has placed pressure on tanker market participants to forecast future returns, create guidance for their investment decisions, and develop an analytical advantage. In this thesis, we develop analytics models to predict average earnings in the VLCC and Suezmax tanker market segments. Through the use of principal components regression, we forecast market returns with endogenous and exogenous market factors. A challenge lies in the fact that key variables--supply, demand, and utilization--are not necessarily available at the time of prediction. Accordingly, we develop an original two-step framework that first predicts vessel supply using classification models, and then embeds the imputed variables into the downstream principal components regression model. Methodologically, this procedure provides a novel approach to integrate classification outputs into a downstream predictive model. Based on our findings, we apply the forecast to two investment decisions; how to hedge the tanker market using time charter contracts and how to determine the optimal economic approach to lightering considering uncertainty in demand and in market returns. In both instances, we demonstrate how the use of an accurate tanker market forecast can be leveraged to make better managerial decisions, historically amounting up to 35 million dollars per year in the lightering decision and 10 million dollars per contract in the time charter investment.
Download or read book Understanding Data Analytics and Predictive Modelling in the Oil and Gas Industry written by Kingshuk Srivastava and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-11-20 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers aspects of data science and predictive analytics used in the oil and gas industry by looking into the challenges of data processing and data modelling unique to this industry. It includes upstream management, intelligent/digital wells, value chain integration, crude basket forecasting, and so forth. It further discusses theoretical, methodological, well-established, and validated empirical work dealing with various related topics. Special focus has been given to experimental topics with various case studies. Features: Provides an understanding of the basics of IT technologies applied in the oil and gas sector Includes deep comparison between different artificial intelligence techniques Analyzes different simulators in the oil and gas sector as well as discussion of AI applications Focuses on in-depth experimental and applied topics Details different case studies for upstream and downstream This book is aimed at professionals and graduate students in petroleum engineering, upstream industry, data analytics, and digital transformation process in oil and gas.
Download or read book Technical Analysis of the International Oil Market written by Petroleum Economics Limited and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Tanker Markets Modeling Analysis and Forecasting Using Neural Networks Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithms written by Chun Li and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Tanker Economics written by Robert S. Nielsen and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding Data Analytics and Predictive Modelling in the Oil and Gas Industry written by Kingshuk Srivastava and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers aspects of data science and predictive analytics used in the oil and gas industry by looking into the challenges of data processing and data modelling unique to this industry. It includes upstream management, intelligent/digital wells, value chain integration, crude basket forecasting, and so forth. It further discusses theoretical, methodological, well-established, and validated empirical work dealing with various related topics. Special focus has been given to experimental topics with various case studies. Features: Provides an understanding of the basics of IT technologies applied in the oil and gas sector Includes deep comparison between different artificial intelligence techniques Analyzes different simulators in the oil and gas sector as well as discussion of AI applications Focuses on in-depth experimental and applied topics Details different case studies for upstream and downstream This book is aimed at professionals and graduate students in petroleum engineering, upstream industry, data analytics, and digital transformation process in oil and gas.
Download or read book Essays on the Economic Analysis of Oil Tanker Transportation written by Sophon Khanti-Akom and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IoT for Smart Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry written by Razin Farhan Hussain and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-20 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IoT for Smart Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry elaborates on how the synergy between state-of-the-art computing platforms, such as Internet of Things (IOT), cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, in particular, modern machine learning methods, can be harnessed to serve the purpose of a more efficient oil and gas industry. The reference explores the operations performed in each sector of the industry and then introduces the computing platforms and smart technologies that can enhance the operation, lower costs, and lower carbon footprint. Safety and security content is included, in particular, cybersecurity and potential threats to smart oil and gas solutions, focusing on adversarial effects of smart solutions and problems related to the interoperability of human-machine intelligence in the context of the oil and gas industry. Detailed case studies are included throughout to learn and research for further applications. Covering the latest topics and solutions, IoT for Smart Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry delivers a much-needed reference for the engineers and managers to understand modern computing paradigms for Industry 4.0 and the oil and gas industry. Follows a systematic and categorical taxonomy of the upstream, midstream, and downstream processes paired with cutting-edge technologies, which benefit computer scientists and engineers Understands advanced computing technologies reducing the costs of existing operations and carbon footprint Deeply dives into case studies that cover the entire oil and gas spectrum and explain bridges into applications
Download or read book The International Oil Tanker Market written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book EEMD CNN BiLSTM QR Enabled Probability Density Forecasts for Crude Oil Price written by Yanmei Huang and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The price of crude oil has been subject to periodical fluctuations as a consequence of changes in seasonal demand and supply, as well as weather, natural disasters, and global political unrest. Accurate forecast of crude oil prices is of utmost importance for decision-makers and industry players in the energy sector. Despite this, the volatility of crude oil prices contributes to the uncertainty of the energy industry, which was particularly challenging following the recent global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as Russia-Ukraine conflicts. This paper aims to propose a hybrid modeling framework to deal with the volatility of crude oil prices, employing several well-established data analytics such as ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), convolutional neural network (CNN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) integrated with quantile regression (QR), named as EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR. Two sets of real-world data of crude oil prices from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the Brent Crude Oil markets were employed to validate the EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR hybrid modeling framework. An in-depth analysis was carried out with the prediction accuracy being calculated while the probability density forecast remains uncertain. The findings of this study demonstrated that the proposed EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR modeling framework is superior to other tested models in terms of its ability to forecast crude oil prices. The novelty of this study stems mostly from the use of QR, which allows for the description of the conditional distribution of predicted variables and the extraction of more uncertain information for probability density forecast.
Download or read book Oil Markets in Turmoil written by Philip K. Verleger and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Future of Oil and the Energy Industry written by AD Patrickson and published by AD Patrickson. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 230 pages of this book will equip you with everything you did not know about petroleum and the energy industry. The book covers topics like: How the oil and gas industry works, The changing oil politics, From oil scarcity to abundance, Climate change, The new energy industry and Why oil dominates every aspect of our lives. The Future of Oil and the Energy Industry, is your energy industry bible.
Download or read book A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf written by Lutz Kilian and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates respond only slightly to fuel cost shocks. In response to higher fuel costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and slightly lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign.
Download or read book Predictive Analytics Applications for Oil and Gas Processing Facilities written by Elias Augusto Machado Roberty and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil and gas industry faces profitability and sustainability challenges that demand companies to have more efficient, reliable, safe, and environmentally friendly operations. Furthermore, as oil and gas companies embark on the Industry 4.0 journey, the pillar of big data becomes increasingly important in an industry that generates massive amounts of data with low to no value extracted from it. Data are generated across all value chain sectors--upstream, midstream, and downstream--starting at reservoirs up to the finished products delivered by the refining and petrochemical sectors. Processing facilities across the value chain, where physical and chemical unit operations convert raw products into intermediate and finished products, generate a wealth of data through their heavily instrumented automatic control systems, operational routines, and quality control systems. Analyzing process data can help companies develop models that predict key process-related parameters to correct potential process upsets timely. In addition, predictive models can also be incorporated into digital twins to emulate diverse operating scenarios for production optimization or facility design purposes. This thesis investigates and reviews the application of predictive analytics on process data, its potential untapped value, analytics as an enabler of digital twins, and big data analytics frameworks tailored for an oil and gas context. Use cases across all segments of the value chain are reviewed with their respective predictive methods. The value of predictive analytics in oil and gas is assessed by reviewing various sources, including a major oil company success case followed by the architectural integration of predictive analytics into the development of a digital twin employing a systems-oriented approach. The last chapter discusses the predictive component of a novel approach tailored for process data analytics: Smart Process Analytics. The advantages such a framework offers versus standard automated predictive model development processes are discussed. Lastly, big data architectures for SPA implementation at process plants are developed.
Download or read book Ph D serie written by Frederik Regli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Shipping Markets in Turmoil written by Nektarios Michail and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the current study, we examine, for the first time in the literature, the impact of exogenous effects in the shipping industry by employing data from the recent COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and explore the reactions of freight rates for dry bulk, clean, and dirty tankers. Our results, using both GARCH (1,1) and VAR specifications, suggest that such events are directly affecting the dry bulk and the dirty tanker segments. In addition, the results also suggest that second round effects, mostly via the decline in oil prices and, in some cases, third round effects via the impact from the stock market, also exist. Finally, by employing daily port calls a proxy variable for the demand for transportation services, we show that both the dry bulk and clean tankers are highly affected by the demand side of the economy, while vessels which transport crude oil do not register such a relationship.
Download or read book Freight Rate Determinants in the Oil Tanker Segment written by Johann Alexander Wulf and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive review of the existing academic literature on oil tanker freight rates and analyses of empirical data on the oil tanker market. Thereby, a set of the five most important freight rate determinants in the oil tanker segment is established. Following the literature review, we identify these as the demand for seaborne trade of oil, the supply of tanker vessels, the season, the individual tanker specifications and the route of the hire. The thesis provides a detailed description of each of these determinants and furthermore analyses how these have formed the current state of the tanker market and how we can project its future development.
