Download or read book Predicting U S Recessions written by Arturo Estrella and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Beating the Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2004-05-18 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Download or read book Wishful Bias in Predicting US Recessions written by Sergey V. Smirnov and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Predicting Recessions written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.

Download or read book Predicting US Recessions written by Sergey V. Smirnov and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability to recognize the beginning of a recession in real-time.We tested consensus forecasts of quarterly GDP growth rates taken from SPFs conducted by PhilFed and found that they may be seen as unbiased only for time horizons j=0,1,2; for greater horizons they are over-optimistic. This over-optimism may also be observed for (j=1, 2) for forecasts made at peaks (at these moments the consensus usually points only to a slowdown of the economy but not to a contraction). Lastly, over-optimism may be observed for nowcasts (j=0) during cyclical contractions, including the first two quarters of a recession (in these cases the reality is usually worse than expected).Taken together, all these facts mean that some aversion to predicting US recessions exists. There are two possible reasons for this: a) experts rely too heavily on extrapolations (then changes in medium-long tendencies would be missed in real time); b) there is a wishful bias in forecasts against predicting recessions (this reluctance may be rooted in psychological factors). We give some arguments in favor of the thesis that the second factor is more important.

Download or read book Forecasting US Recessions written by Valerio Ercolani and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988. in particular during the onset of the 1990 recession. The primary focus is on an experimental recession index (tile "XRI"). a composite index which provides probabilistic forecasts of whether the U.S. economy will be in a recession six months hence. After detailing its construction, the paper examines the out-of-sample performance of the XRI and a related forecast of overall economic growth. the experimental leading index (XLI). These indexes performed well from 1988 through the summer of 1990 - for example. in June 1990 the XLI model forecasted a .4% (annual rate) decline in the experimental coincident index from June through September. when in fact the decline was only slightly greater, .8%. However. the XLI failed to forecast the sharp declines of October and November 1990. After exploring several possible explanations. we conclude that one important source of the forecast error was the use of financial variables during a recession that was not associated with a particularly tight monetary policy. Financial indicators -- and the experimental index -- were not alone. however. in failing to forecast the 1990 recession, An examination of 45 economic indicators shows that almost all failed to forecast the 1990downturn. and the few that did provided unclear signals before the recessions of the 19705 and 1980s

Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Download or read book Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions written by Jonas Dovern and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Predicting US Recessions written by Tasneem Raihan and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a widely used algorithm in speech recognition for measuring similarity between two time series. This non-parametric technique overcomes the problems associated with Pearson's correlation coefficient by allowing a non-linear mapping of one sequence to another obtained through the minimization of the distance between the two. Despite its superiority as a similarity measure, its application in the field of economics is almost non-existent. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the economics literature by providing a self-contained description of the method. In addition, it demonstrates an application of DTW to the prediction of recessions in US using Treasury term spread data. The exercise shows that DTW is successful in predicting the recessions of both 1999 and 2007. The predictions are stronger when asymmetric step-pattern is adopted. Also, compared to other non-parametric methods, DTW raises significantly fewer false signals of recessions. Finally, DTW concludes that given the current state of the economy there is a zero probability of a recession in the next one year.

Download or read book The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U S Recessions written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yield curve?specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill?is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.

Download or read book The Predictive Power of Yield Curve in Forecasting U S Recessions written by Hardeep Bamara and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the last recession in 2001, the U.S. economy has continued to grow; yet speculation of a recession has surfaced on the basis of the yield curve flattening. Yield curve inversion has been strongly associated with U.S. recessions over the last forty-six years. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield curve, the index of leading indicators, monetary growth and stock returns in forecasting U.S. recessions. A probit model is used to generate recession probability forecasts three, six, nine and twelve months forward. Empirical results show that the yield curve embodies the highest degree of explanatory power beyond a three-month forecast horizon. Results for the last two recessions are analyzed as well as forecasts going forward into 2006. As a final observation, an asset allocation trading strategy is tested out-of-sample.

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U S Recessions written by Arturo Estrella and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yield curveőspecifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury billőis a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

Download or read book Predicting US Recessions with Stock Market Illiquidity written by Shiu-Sheng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the illiquidity measure proposed by Amihud (2002) has strong power in predicting recessions. Moreover, the predictability of the illiquidity measure of small firms is found to be stronger than that of large firms, which supports the hypothesis of "flight to liquidity.''

Download or read book A New Approach to Predicting Recessions written by Ken Nyholm and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new approach to recession prediction. The methodology relies on the shape of the yield curve alone and does not incorporate macroeconomic information or other explanatory variables. This makes the modelling framework less data intensive and more intuitive than other models that have the same goal. The workhorses of the approach are (i) data transformation of observed yields with the purpose of normalizing the yield spread, and (ii) a three-state regime-switching version of the Nelson-Siegel parametric model of the yield curves' shape and location. In an out-of-sample exercise the model predicts all US NBER recessions from 1973 to 2004 at least eight months in advance of their occurrences.