Download or read book Predicting Politics written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Ohio State University Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To predict likely policy developments around the world over the next thirty years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theoretic models as described in Predicting Politics. The tools used in this book have found wide application in business and in the development of significant American foreign policy initiatives over the years. The author uses data from 1948 to show the ability of models to predict the end of the Cold War. He then turns to data from 1980 for about one hundred countries and simulates future states of the world, especially with regard to further democratization. In the process he shows strong evidence that the burst of democratization that occurred at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s was predictable based on replicable data known in 1980. While delving into rather gloomy predictions about likely developments in Russia and China's domestic affairs, he offers a novel explanation for the failure of Russia to attract more investment and to achieve the higher growth rates commonly associated with democratic government. Although Russia is certainly more democratic in an absolute sense today than it was in 1980, it has fallen farther behind the rest of the world in terms of democratization and so lacks the comparative advantages of property rights, rule of law, and transparent governance that are essential for attracting investment. Bueno de Mesquita shows how policy situations and game theoretical analyses can explain the past, illuminate the present and forecast future events. At the same time he provides the tools necessary for others to create their own rigorous estimates of future foreign policies.

Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Download or read book Predicting the Presidency written by George C. Edwards, III and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Millions of Americans—including many experienced politicians—viewed Barack Obama through a prism of high expectations, based on a belief in the power of presidential persuasion. Yet many who were inspired by candidate Obama were disappointed in what he was able to accomplish once in the White House. They could not understand why he often was unable to leverage his position and political skills to move the public and Congress to support his initiatives. Predicting the Presidency explains why Obama had such difficulty bringing about the change he promised, and challenges the conventional wisdom about presidential leadership. In this incisive book, George Edwards shows how we can ask a few fundamental questions about the context of a presidency—the president's strategic position or opportunity structure—and use the answers to predict a president's success in winning support for his initiatives. If presidential success is largely determined by a president's strategic position, what role does persuasion play? Almost every president finds that a significant segment of the public and his fellow partisans in Congress are predisposed to follow his lead. Others may support the White House out of self-interest. Edwards explores the possibilities of the president exploiting such support, providing a more realistic view of the potential of presidential persuasion. Written by a leading presidential scholar, Predicting the Presidency sheds new light on the limitations and opportunities of presidential leadership.

Download or read book Predicting Politics written by W. Mark Crain and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brings together essays by scholars who have worked in the public choice tradition.

Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2008-02-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

Download or read book Predicting the Future in Science Economics and Politics written by Frank Whelon Wayman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-08-29 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing togeth

Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2005 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2020-08-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Allan J. Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electo...

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Download or read book Predicting Party Sizes written by Rein Taagepera and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2007-08-23 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a given electoral system, what average number and sizes of parties and government duration can we expect? Predicting Party Sizes is the first book to make specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are the numbers of seats in the assembly and in the average electoral district. While previous models tell us only the direction in which to change the electoral system, the present ones also tell us by how much they must be changed so as to obtain the desired change in average number of parties and cabinet duration. Hence, combined with known particularities of a country, they can be used for informed institutional design. The book is useful to three types of readers: political science students learning the basics of electoral systems and their political consequences; practitioners of politics who consider changing the electoral laws; and researchers intent on connecting electoral and party systems. The book is structured accordingly. Chapters start with advice and recipes for practicing politicians, in non-technical language. The main text gives students an overview of electoral systems, worldwide, and supplies evidence for models that tie simple electoral systems (First-Past-The-Post and List Proportional Representation) to the number and sizes of parties and government duration. Chapter appendices present derivations of these models and other more technical issues of interest to researchers.

Download or read book Getting to War written by W. Ben Hunt and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2010-05-18 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how to predict wars. More specifically, it tells us how to anticipate in a timely fashion the scope and extent of interstate conflict. By focusing on how all governments--democratic or not--seek to secure public support before undertaking risky moves such as starting a war, Getting to War provides a methodology for identifying a regime's intention to launch a conflict well in advance of the actual initiation. The goal here is the identification of leading indicators of war. Getting to War develops such a leading political indicator by a systematic examination of the ways in which governments influence domestic and international information flows. Regardless of the relative openness of the media system in question, we can accurately gauge the underlying intentions of those governments by a systematic analysis of opinion-leading articles in the mass media. This analysis allows us to predict both the likelihood of conflict and what form of conflict--military or diplomatic/economic--will occur. Theoretically, this book builds on a forty-year-old insight by Karl Deutsch--that all governments seek to mobilize public opinion through mass media and that careful analysis of such domestic media activity could provide an "early warning network" of international conflict. By showing how to tap the link between conflict initiation and public support, this book provides both a useful tool for understanding crisis behavior as well as new theoretical insights on how domestic politics help drive foreign policy. Getting to War will be of interest to political scientists who study international disputes and national security as well as social scientists interested in media studies and political communication. General readers with an interest in military or diplomatic history--particularly U.S. history--will find that Getting to War provides an entirely new perspective on how to understand wars and international crises. W. Ben Hunt is Assistant Professor of Politics, New York University

Download or read book The Presidential Character written by James David Barber and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. James David Barber's well-known, provocative examination of who has the potential to be voted into the highest office in the land - and why - is being reissued as the newest addition to the "Longman Classics in Political Science" series. Arguing that patterns in a person's character, world view, and style can allow us to anticipate their performance as president, The Presidential Character offers explanations and predictions of the performance of presidents and presidential candidates. Drawing on historical, biographical, and psychological research, Dr. Barber hoped to help voters make judicious choices in determining the country's highest leaders. Revisiting this classic work in today's important presidential election season begs a reconsideration of Barber's probing and enduring query, "What should we look for in a president?"

Download or read book American Politics written by Samuel P. Huntington and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1981 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Huntington examines the persistent gap between the promise of American ideals and the performance of American politics. He shows how Americans have always been united by the democratic creed of liberty, equality, and hostility to authority, but how these ideals have been frustrated through institutions and hierarchies needed to govern a democracy.

Download or read book Selling the Future written by Ariel Colonomos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *** Winner of the 2017 ISA Ethics Book Award 2017*** In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, so the relation between knowledge and power intensifies, above all the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. In his investigation of the paradoxes of fore--casting, Ariel Colonomos interrogates today's knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think tanks and rat--ing agencies. He explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future, especially when linked to national interest, re--flects a systematic search for stability. The notion of a globalised world whose main characteristic is speed, and where predictions have accelerat--ing, self-fulfilling effects, is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know, reassure those who are supposed to act. Their preferences converge, and thus the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These 'lords of knowledge' reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when - inevitably - it diverges from its orderly path.