Download or read book Predicting interest rates a comparison of professional and market based forecasts written by Michael T. Belongia and published by . This book was released on with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle RLE Business Cycles written by James W. Coons and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Interest Rate Based Forecasts Versus Professional Forecasts for German Economic Growth written by Hanns Martin Hagen and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Interest Rate Analysis and Forecasting written by David Kern and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this book is on interest rate forecasting, and the interaction between analytical factors, political and economic developments and changes in the financial markets. The book takes an international approach with the emphasis on the USA, Germany, Japan and the UK.
Download or read book Forecasting Interest Rates written by John B. Schwartzman and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1992 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Set up your own simple, one-page charts that track and assess interest rates and the factors affecting them--on a weekly, monthly, or quarterly basis. Determine, with a high degree of accuracy, in which direction the various trends influencing interest rates are likely to push them. Supplemented by a host of charts, graphs, examples, and illustrations, Forecasting Interest Rates allows you to spot the all-important events that cause interest rates to move--whether they're front-page news or subtle incidents. It shows you how to recognize a reliable interest rate factor from a red herring--whether the source is the Department of Commerce, the Department of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, a university research center, or a nonprofit company specializing in business economic research.
Download or read book Comparison of Forecasting Models for Interest Rates written by Jean Crockett and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book How to Forecast Interest Rates written by Martin J. Pring and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1981 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Evidence on Professional Interest Rates Forecasts written by Alex Cukierman and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper develops a model of honest rational professional forecasters with different abilities and submits it to empirical verification using data on three and twelve months ahead forecasts of short term interest rates and of long term bond yields for up to 33 countries using data collected by Consensus Economics. The main finding is that, in many countries, less precise forecasters weigh public information more heavily than more precise forecasters who weigh their own private information relatively more heavily. One implication of this result is that less precise forecasters herd after more precise forecasters even in the absence of strategic considerations. The second part of the paper discusses and examines the cross-country relationships between measures of forecast uncertainty, dispersion of forecasts across individual forecasters and the variabilities of short term interest rates and of long term bonds. The main findings are: (i) Forecast uncertainty and dispersion are positively and significantly related across countries for both short rates and yields. (ii) A similar positive, albeit somewhat weaker, association is found between uncertainty and variability. (iii) Dispersion of short term interest rate forecasts and the variability of those rates are also positively associated. The paper also documents differences between the average forecasting errors of more and less able forecasters as well as substantial correlations between the forecast errors of different forecasters."--Abstract.
Download or read book Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates written by Christina D. Romer and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We demonstrate that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. We also provide evidence that monetary policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's private information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.
Download or read book Think Twice written by Michael J. Mauboussin and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions—no matter how good the intentions behind them—are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve. So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts. Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
Download or read book The C F A Digest written by Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Improving Market Based Forecasts of Short Term Interest Rates written by Ralf Ahrens and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.
Download or read book Interest Rate Assumptions and Predictive Accuracy of Central Bank Forecasts written by Guido Schultefrankenfeld and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537-550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England's and the Banco Central do Brasil's forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.
Download or read book PAIS Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 1596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Cost of Capital written by Cleveland S. Patterson and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 1995-04-30 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knowledge about the magnitude of the cost of capital invested in an asset and its determinants is essential for the analysis of corporate investment decisions and for assessing profitability. This book provides a clear conceptual understanding of the cost of capital, the characteristics of an asset that influence it, and a critical, comprehensive, and up-to-date evaluation of practical means for estimating its magnitude. It is intended primarily for use by professional managers, but will also be valuable to future managers in advanced capital budgeting courses. The focus of the discussion is on estimation methods that are theoretically sound and consistent with a corporate goal of value creation. Three methods are analyzed in depth: the discounted cash flow model, the capital asset pricing model, and arbitrage pricing theory. For each method, the basic theory is set out in a nontechnical manner and empirical evidence in support of the model is critically reviewed. The bulk of the discussion then focuses on practical means for implementing the methods for decision-making purposes. Later chapters focus on the effects of the debt-supporting characteristics of assets, on the valuation of options embedded in securities, and on the estimation of the cost of capital for evaluating international investments. The final chapter discusses certain aspects of the use of cost of capital in public utility regulation. Care is taken to separate out key issues from more peripheral material through a comprehensive set of supplementary notes.
