Download or read book Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Download or read book Precautionary Reserves written by Mr.Fabian Valencia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using precautionary savings models we compute levels of optimal reserves for Bolivia. Because of Bolivia's reliance on commodity exports and little integration with capital markets, we focus on current account shocks as the key balance of payments risk. These models generate an optimal level of net foreign assets ranging from 29 to 37 percent of GDP. For comparison purposes, we contrasted these results with standard rule of thumb measures of reserve adequacy, which in the case of Bolivia resulted in substantially lower levels of adequate reserves. These differing results emphasize the need to appropriately account for country-specific risks in order to derive adequate measures of reserve buffers.
Download or read book Assessing Reserve Adequacy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-14 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dramatic increase in reserves holdings over the past decade has resumed since the global financial crisis, even at an accelerated pace. While the crisis has heightened perceptions of the importance of holding adequate reserves, there is little consensus on what constitutes an adequate level from a precautionary perspective: traditional metrics are narrowly-based and often provide conflicting signals; while newer approaches tend to be hostage to stylized modeling assumptions and calibrations. As a result, assessments tend to rely on comparisons with peers, probably amplifying the upward trend as perceived needs rise in line with actual holdings.
Download or read book Central Bank Balances and Reserve Requirements written by Mr.Simon Gray and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most central banks oblige depository institutions to hold minimum reserves against their liabilities, predominantly in the form of balances at the central bank. The role of these reserve requirements has evolved significantly over time. The overlay of changing purposes and practices has the result that it is not always fully clear what the current purpose of reserve requirements is, and this necessarily complicates thinking about how a reserve regime should be structured. This paper describes three main purposes for reserve requirements - prudential, monetary control and liquidity management - and suggests best practice for the structure of a reserves regime. Finally, the paper illustrates current practices using a 2010 IMF survey of 121 central banks.
Download or read book Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund s Precautionary Balances written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-16 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Download or read book International Reserves written by Mr.Jaewoo Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.
Download or read book Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Valerio Crispolti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Download or read book The Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves written by Scott Roger and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-03 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Context: Ethiopia’s investment-led development strategy has delivered robust growth and progress toward Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Restrained fiscal and monetary policies have helped maintain macroeconomic stability, although the financing mode of the continuing large-scale investment through public enterprises could risk undermining macroeconomic stability. A cautious policy stance will be critical in preserving the recent gains. Focus of the consultation: The discussions centered on policies to sustain strong economic growth and promote structural transformation. Issues covered included: (i) the policy mix to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability; (ii) the public sector investment program and its financing; and (iii) financial deepening, export competitiveness and the business climate. Outlook and Risks: Growth is expected to remain strong, driven mainly by agriculture and services. Inflation should continue to remain in single digits, in line with a tight monetary policy. Key downside risks include insufficient financing for infrastructure investment in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), lower prices of main export commodities, and weather-related shocks, particularly a drought. Policy mix: Staff recommendations focused on sustaining a cautious policy stance, prioritization of public investments and closer monitoring of state-owned enterprises to ensure prudent borrowing in the context of a medium-term debt management strategy, enhancing export competitiveness, greater resource mobilization and development of the financial sector, and a more prominent role for the private sector. Structural improvements in the functioning of the money and foreign exchange market and building foreign reserves to at least three months of imports were suggested to enhance resiliency. The need for greater interest rate and exchange rate flexibility and improved competitiveness of the traded goods sector, including through exchange rate adjustment, was underscored.
Download or read book The International Monetary System and the Less Developed Countries written by Graham Bird and published by Springer. This book was released on 1982-10-28 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the author investigates the relationship between the international monetary system and the less developed countries of the world. In the period since 1945 growing concern has been shown over the international monetary problems which LDCs face, and since 1971 LDCs have been significant participants in the reform of the international monetary system. After tracing the evolution of the relationship between LDCs and the International Monetary Fund, the book goes on to examine, with full reference to the available empirical evidence, the major causes and consequences of LDCs' international monetary problems. Topics covered include: export instability; the terms of trade; the demand for reserves and reserve adequacy; and adjustment difficulties. A thorough examination is then made of the ways in which financial assistance has been provided to LDCs through the IMF and the Eurocurrency market. Finally, certain key policy issues are discussed: the commodity problem; the link between the creation of international liquidity and the provision of development aid; and exchange rate policy. Each chapter is followed by an extensive bibliography which is designed to help the reader to pursue further any topic of particular interest. The presentation, which is non-mathematical, is in the form of a textbook. The issues are surveyed, the main arguments discussed, and the available empirical evidence presented. It is revealed, however, that on many issues it is at present difficult to draw firm conclusions. The book will be of interest to students of international, monetary, and development economics.
Download or read book Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America written by Mr.R. Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-27 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How has Latin America coped with external shocks and economic vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America looks at how the region has fared in recent years in an environment of uncertainty. It presents a collection of novel contributions on capital flows, terms of trade, and macroeconomic policy in Latin America. The rigorous expert analysis offers an up-to-date guide to many of the key economic policy questions in the region. Chapters focus on important analytical issues, including assessing reserves adequacy and current account levels. The roles of macroeconomic policies and exchange rates regimes in coping with large capital inflows are examined, as well as the effectiveness of both monetary policy and fiscal policy in dealing with economic challenges in the region.
Download or read book Saudi Arabia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-24 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth is expected to increase to 1.9 percent in 2018, with non-oil growth strengthening to 2.3 percent. Growth is expected to pick-up further over the medium term as the reforms take hold and oil output increases. Risks are balanced in the near-term. The employment of Saudi nationals has increased, especially for women, but the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals rose to 12.8 percent in 2017. Credit and deposit growth remain weak, but both are expected to strengthen owing to higher government spending and non-oil growth. The fiscal deficit is projected to continue to narrow, from 9.3 percent of GDP in 2017 to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2018.
Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEMAC written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the common policies needed for the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC growth was subdued in 2015. It slowed to 1.6 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2014, because of reduced public investment and lower oil production. Policies to counter the oil-price shock need to focus on fiscal consolidation and real-economy reforms. In the wake of the oil-price shock, monetary financing has been the primary response tool. Fiscal policy coordination among members should be strengthened, and fiscal discipline enforcement is needed. Real-economy reforms, focusing on improving the business climate and boosting private investment, are also needed to preserve macroeconomic stability.
Download or read book The International Monetary Fund and the Learning Organization written by Moisés J. Schwartz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-03 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The benefits of independent evaluation in international financial institutions have long been recognized. However, independent evaluation in these organizations is of increased relevance during uncertain times that call for more credible and legitimate institutions. While evaluation has long played a function in the IMF, and its role has expanded substantially with the creation of the IEO, independent evaluation has yet to take on a role within the IMF that fully reflects its potential contribution. A strong global economy requires a strong IMF, and a strong IMF requires a strong independent evaluation culture and practice. The establishment of the IEO was only the start of a process that still needs to be fostered and cultivated. Successful independent evaluation is important for the IMF to be perceived as legitimate and credible—and to achieve it, the independent evaluation function needs to be further integrated in the learning process and culture of the Fund. Independent evaluation has played a significant role in contributing to the improvement of the IMF, but the pending challenge is for the IMF and the IEO to create a shared culture that fully embraces the purpose and mission of the IEO, and the learning opportunities offered by independent evaluation. The IMF’s organizational culture has a profound role to play in prompting actions to make learning from independent evaluation a more vibrant element of the Fund’s activities. This book calls on IMF management to take a more active role in instilling the positive value of independent evaluation across the organization and thus enabling independent evaluation to bring the IMF closer to what the literature defines as the ideal of a “learning organization.”
Download or read book Liquidity Management under Fixed Exchange Rate with Open Capital Account written by Mariam El Hamiani Khatat and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-18 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a theoretical framework for liquidity management under fixed exchange rate arrangement, derived from the price-specie flow mechanism of David Hume. The framework highlights that the risk of short-term money market rates un-anchoring from the uncovered interest rate parity due to money and foreign exchange market frictions could jeopardize financial stability and market development. The paper then discusses operational solutions that stabilize money market rates close to the level implied by the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP). Liquidity management under fixed exchange rate with an open capital account presents specific challenges due to: (1) the larger liquidity shocks induced by foreign reserve swings that challenge the development of money markets; and (2) more complicated liquidity forecasts. The theoretical framework is empirically tested based on the estimate of “offset” coefficients for Denmark and Hong Kong SAR.
Download or read book Zambia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite Zambia's continued battle with poverty, the authorities have maintained sustained growth and macroeconomic stability during the past decade. 2011 showed robust GDP growth supported by agricultural activities and strong bank credit. But the Executive Board expressed concern over the risks arising from the volatility of copper prices and the delay in implementing measures required to meet the 2012 budget deficit target. Directors recommended strengthening the tax administration and reducing subsidies and incentives for achieving the fiscal targets.
Download or read book The Millennium Development Goals written by Fantu Cheru and published by Zed Books Ltd.. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides an up-to-date and detailed tour d'horizon of the exciting diversity of new proposals and mechanisms currently being discussed in order to raise the necessary financial resources to make the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals a reality by 2015. If the MDGs to halve global poverty and significantly improve the conditions of life of the world's poor are to be met on schedule, putting in place the requisite funding is an essential component. The economists in this volume from WIDER, UNDP, and other leading institutions have contributed their analyses as part of the Helsinki Process on Globalisation and Democracy - a high-level multi-stakeholder initiative to develop new approaches to global problem-solving, a global economic agenda and human security. Key resource flows examined include ODA, foreign direct investment, remittances by migrants, commodity export prices, and new ideas to secure sustainable debt relief, including SDRs, debt cancellation, revaluation of IMF gold reserves, debt arbitration, and other proposals. The statistically rich analyses are presented in the context of the complicated trends in global inequality, the incidence of poverty, and the impacts of globalisation. The editors conclude with a thought-provoking set of ideas about the political requirements for effective global economic governance aimed at achieving the MDGs that the world community set itself at the start of the new millennium. The empirical data in this volume and survey of key new ideas for resource mobilisation will be invaluable to all those concerned with global economic governance, including scholars, diplomats, NGO lobbyists, and students studying development economics.
