Download or read book Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 1 of 2 written by Akram Najjar and published by Gatekeeper Press. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 2 of 2 written by Akram Najjar and published by Gatekeeper Press. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a fair number of stand alone applications as well as add on’s to Microsoft Excel in the market to be used to run Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) models. However, out of the box, Excel has all the functions you need to develop such models. What is needed are robust modeling procedures, techniques and analytic formulations. Initially, I started with one book. This grew out of proportion as more and more applications and models were identified. Some of these had not been modeled with MCS before. I had to break the book into two parts. Part 1 presents the basics of modeling always providing methods and typical models as applications of simulation. Part 1 also spends time on clarifying different ways of analyzing the simulation output using a variety of statistical functions and procedures all found within Excel. The eBook clarifies a variety of Excel facilities needed in different parts of simulation: sensitivity analysis, linear regression and the Analysis Toolpack. Finally, Part 1 presents a few standard modeling techniques that can be used in a variety of models, specifically in Part 2. Part 2 concentrates on applications such as project management, acceptance sampling, sales and budget forecasting, queuing models, reliability engineering and more. Since these operations behave according to specific statistical distributions, time is spent on clarifying a variety of these functions. When one or two are not available in Excel, alternative methods of computation are presented. A special chapter addresses Markov Processes and shows how simulation can be coupled to such an analysis. The uses and applications of statistical distributions in these operations are addressed in depth. Having covered Uniform, Normal and Discrete Distributions in Part 1, Part 2 proceeds to present and give applications for the following distributions: binomial, negative binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, triangular (not commonly used but is the basis as to why betaPERT is preferred), Poisson, exponential, Gamma and Weibull. No programming is required although in one single case, an embedded VBA module is included. It is used to formulate a method that allows the analyst to develop a two level simulation. To get the results of each of the primary runs in the model, the model runs a further “sub-simulation”. No VBA competence is required. The two eBooks come with 21 and 54 step by step models, respectively, and with supporting images. Whenever statistical functions are used, they are fully clarified using a common sense and non-theoretical approach. All the workouts are solved and are available for download from this page.
Download or read book Introductory Econometrics written by Humberto Barreto and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly accessible and innovative text with supporting web site uses Excel (R) to teach the core concepts of econometrics without advanced mathematics. It enables students to use Monte Carlo simulations in order to understand the data generating process and sampling distribution. Intelligent repetition of concrete examples effectively conveys the properties of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator and the nature of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Coverage includes omitted variables, binary response models, basic time series, and simultaneous equations. The authors teach students how to construct their own real-world data sets drawn from the internet, which they can analyze with Excel (R) or with other econometric software. The accompanying web site with text support can be found at www.wabash.edu/econometrics.
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license
Download or read book How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk written by Douglas W. Hubbard and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-07-25 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk exposes the shortcomings of current "risk management" practices, and offers a series of improvement techniques that help you fill the holes and ramp up security. In his bestselling book How to Measure Anything, author Douglas W. Hubbard opened the business world's eyes to the critical need for better measurement. This book expands upon that premise and draws from The Failure of Risk Management to sound the alarm in the cybersecurity realm. Some of the field's premier risk management approaches actually create more risk than they mitigate, and questionable methods have been duplicated across industries and embedded in the products accepted as gospel. This book sheds light on these blatant risks, and provides alternate techniques that can help improve your current situation. You'll also learn which approaches are too risky to save, and are actually more damaging than a total lack of any security. Dangerous risk management methods abound; there is no industry more critically in need of solutions than cybersecurity. This book provides solutions where they exist, and advises when to change tracks entirely. Discover the shortcomings of cybersecurity's "best practices" Learn which risk management approaches actually create risk Improve your current practices with practical alterations Learn which methods are beyond saving, and worse than doing nothing Insightful and enlightening, this book will inspire a closer examination of your company's own risk management practices in the context of cybersecurity. The end goal is airtight data protection, so finding cracks in the vault is a positive thing—as long as you get there before the bad guys do. How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk is your guide to more robust protection through better quantitative processes, approaches, and techniques.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by Sujaul Chowdhury and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended for undergraduate students of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics who know nothing about Monte Carlo Methods but wish to know how they work. All treatments have been done as much manually as is practicable. The treatments are deliberately manual to let the readers get the real feel of how Monte Carlo Methods work. Definite integrals of a total of five functions (), namely Sin(), Cos(), e, loge(), and 1/(1+2), have been evaluated using constant, linear, Gaussian, and exponential probability density functions (). It is shown that results agree with known exact values better if () is proportional to (). Deviation from the proportionality results in worse agreement. This book is on Monte Carlo Methods which are numerical methods for Computational Physics. These are parts of a syllabus for undergraduate students of Mathematics and Physics for the course titled "Computational Physics." Need for the book: Besides the three referenced books, this is the only book that teaches how basic Monte Carlo methods work. This book is much more explicit and easier to follow than the three referenced books. The two chapters on the Variational Quantum Monte Carlo method are additional contributions of the book. Pedagogical features: After a thorough acquaintance with background knowledge in Chapter 1, five thoroughly worked out examples on how to carry out Monte Carlo integration is included in Chapter 2. Moreover, the book contains two chapters on the Variational Quantum Monte Carlo method applied to a simple harmonic oscillator and a hydrogen atom. The book is a good read; it is intended to make readers adept at using the method. The book is intended to aid in hands-on learning of the Monte Carlo methods.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation and Resampling Methods for Social Science written by Thomas M. Carsey and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2013-08-05 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking the topics of a quantitative methodology course and illustrating them through Monte Carlo simulation, this book examines abstract principles, such as bias, efficiency, and measures of uncertainty in an intuitive, visual way. Instead of thinking in the abstract about what would happen to a particular estimator "in repeated samples," the book uses simulation to actually create those repeated samples and summarize the results. The book includes basic examples appropriate for readers learning the material for the first time, as well as more advanced examples that a researcher might use to evaluate an estimator he or she was using in an actual research project. The book also covers a wide range of topics related to Monte Carlo simulation, such as resampling methods, simulations of substantive theory, simulation of quantities of interest (QI) from model results, and cross-validation. Complete R code from all examples is provided so readers can replicate every analysis presented using R.
Download or read book Statistical Tools for the Comprehensive Practice of Industrial Hygiene and Environmental Health Sciences written by David L. Johnson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews and reinforces concepts and techniques typical of a first statistics course with additional techniques useful to the IH/EHS practitioner. Includes both parametric and non-parametric techniques described and illustrated in a worker health and environmental protection practice context Illustrated through numerous examples presented in the context of IH/EHS field practice and research, using the statistical analysis tools available in Excel® wherever possible Emphasizes the application of statistical tools to IH/EHS-type data in order to answer IH/EHS-relevant questions Includes an instructor’s manual that follows in parallel with the textbook, including PowerPoints to help prepare lectures and answers in the text as for the Exercises section of each chapter.
Download or read book Data Science for Business and Decision Making written by Luiz Paulo Favero and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-04-11 with total page 1246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Science for Business and Decision Making covers both statistics and operations research while most competing textbooks focus on one or the other. As a result, the book more clearly defines the principles of business analytics for those who want to apply quantitative methods in their work. Its emphasis reflects the importance of regression, optimization and simulation for practitioners of business analytics. Each chapter uses a didactic format that is followed by exercises and answers. Freely-accessible datasets enable students and professionals to work with Excel, Stata Statistical Software®, and IBM SPSS Statistics Software®. - Combines statistics and operations research modeling to teach the principles of business analytics - Written for students who want to apply statistics, optimization and multivariate modeling to gain competitive advantages in business - Shows how powerful software packages, such as SPSS and Stata, can create graphical and numerical outputs
Download or read book Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling written by Michael Samonas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Download or read book Excel Simulations written by Gerard M. Verschuuren and published by Tickling Keys, Inc.. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering a variety of Excel simulations, from gambling to genetics, this introduction is for people interested in modeling future events, without the cost of an expensive textbook. The simulations covered offer a fun alternative to the usual Excel topics and include situations such as roulette, password cracking, sex determination, population growth, and traffic patterns, among many others.
Download or read book Managing Project Risks for Competitive Advantage in Changing Business Environments written by Bodea, Constanta-Nicoleta and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-05-31 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk management is a vital concern in any organization. In order to succeed in the competitive modern business environment, the decision-making process must be effectively governed and managed. Managing Project Risks for Competitive Advantage in Changing Business Environments presents critical discussions on effective risk management in projects and methods to ensure overall success in project outcomes. Highlighting theoretical foundations, innovative practices, and real-world applications, this book is a pivotal reference source for managers, practitioners, upper-level students, and other professionals interested in how to properly adopt project risk management systems and tools.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation in Statistical Physics written by Kurt Binder and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monte Carlo method is a computer simulation method which uses random numbers to simulate statistical fluctuations. The method is used to model complex systems with many degrees of freedom. Probability distributions for these systems are generated numerically and the method then yields numerically exact information on the models. Such simulations may be used tosee how well a model system approximates a real one or to see how valid the assumptions are in an analyical theory. A short and systematic theoretical introduction to the method forms the first part of this book. The second part is a practical guide with plenty of examples and exercises for the student. Problems treated by simple sampling (random and self-avoiding walks, percolation clusters, etc.) are included, along with such topics as finite-size effects and guidelines for the analysis of Monte Carlo simulations. The two parts together provide an excellent introduction to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulations.
Download or read book Deena Katz s Complete Guide to Practice Management written by Deena B. Katz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-06 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deena B. Katz, CFP, a preeminent authority on practice management and an internationally recognized financial adviser, presents a comprehensive guide to running a professional financial planning practice. To create this book, Katz updated, revised, and combined her two acclaimed books Deena Katz on Practice Management (1999) and Deena Katz's Tools and Templates for Your Practice (2001). In this newly expanded volume, she presents the essentials on how to help a practice thrive side by side with the tools and templates needed for the everyday operation of your firm. This new volume offers guidance on practice-management issues: setting up an office systems and technology administration and staffing marketing growing as the market changes hanging on to clients for the long term succession planning when the time comes This comprehensive resource provides sample forms, worksheets, templates, letters, brochures, and collateral materials developed and refined by top wealth managers and planners. From keeping the business running well by designing dynamic collateral material, to considering plans for retirement, Deena B. Katz guides advisers through every challenge a financial planning business will face.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering written by Paul Glasserman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the reviews: "Paul Glasserman has written an astonishingly good book that bridges financial engineering and the Monte Carlo method. The book will appeal to graduate students, researchers, and most of all, practicing financial engineers [...] So often, financial engineering texts are very theoretical. This book is not." --Glyn Holton, Contingency Analysis
Download or read book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Download or read book Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering written by Michael Faber and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-07-15 with total page 938 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the pressure of harsh environmental conditions and natural hazards, large parts of the world population are struggling to maintain their livelihoods. Population growth, increasing land utilization and shrinking natural resources have led to an increasing demand of improved efficiency of existing technologies and the development of new ones. A
