Download or read book Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Interest Rates and Learning About Stock Return Predictability written by Marcos Escobar and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of optimal wealth allocation is solved under the assumptions that interest rates are stochastic and stock returns are predictable with observed and unobserved factors. The stock risk premium is taken to be an affine function of the predictive variables and the stock return volatility is assumed to depend on the observed factor. The latent factor is estimated based on the observations. It is shown that the stock return predictability can significantly impact the optimal bond portfolio. The welfare loss from ignoring learning can be considerable.
Download or read book On Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Stochastic Interest Rates written by Abraham Lioui and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an economy where interest rates and stock price changes follow fairly general stochastic processes, we analyse the portfolio problem of an expected utility investor. When the investment opportunity set is driven by an arbitrary number of state variables, the optimal portfolio strategy is known to contain a speculative element and Merton-Breeden hedging terms against the fluctuations of each and every state variable. While the first component is well identified and easy to work out, the implementation of the last ones is problematic as the investor must identify all the relevant state variables and estimate their distribution characteristics. Using a new decomposition of the optimal wealth, we show that the optimal strategy can be simplified to include, in addition to the speculative component, only two Merton-Breeden type hedging elements, however large is the number of state variables. The first one is associated with interest rate risk and the second one with the risk brought about by the co-movements of the spot interest rate and the market prices of risk. The implementation of the optimal strategy is thus much easier, as it involves estimating the characteristics of the yield curve and the market prices of risk only rather than those of numerous (a priori unknown) state variables. Moreover, the investor's horizon is shown explicitly to play a crucial role in the optimal strategy design, in sharp contrast with the traditional decomposition.
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Download or read book Portfolio Choice Problems written by Nicolas Chapados and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-07-12 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.
Download or read book Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Portfolio Allocation written by Bradley Steele Paye and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multiscale Stochastic Volatility for Equity Interest Rate and Credit Derivatives written by Jean-Pierre Fouque and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the ideas introduced in their previous book, Derivatives in Financial Markets with Stochastic Volatility, the authors study the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives under stochastic volatility in equity, interest-rate, and credit markets. They present and analyze multiscale stochastic volatility models and asymptotic approximations. These can be used in equity markets, for instance, to link the prices of path-dependent exotic instruments to market implied volatilities. The methods are also used for interest rate and credit derivatives. Other applications considered include variance-reduction techniques, portfolio optimization, forward-looking estimation of CAPM 'beta', and the Heston model and generalizations of it. 'Off-the-shelf' formulas and calibration tools are provided to ease the transition for practitioners who adopt this new method. The attention to detail and explicit presentation make this also an excellent text for a graduate course in financial and applied mathematics.
Download or read book A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability written by Michael W. Brandt and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time portfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences, a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution, and, most importantly, a large number of state variables with potentially path-dependent or non-stationary dynamics. The method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, portfolio constraints, parameter and model uncertainty, and learning. We first establish the properties of the method for the portfolio choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the problem of an investor who takes into account the predictability of returns but is uncertain about the parameters of the data generating process. The investor chooses the portfolio anticipating that future data realizations will contain useful information to learn about the true parameter values.
Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques.*Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives
Download or read book Optimal Portfolios with Stochastic Interest Rates and Defaultable Assets written by Holger Kraft and published by . This book was released on 2004-04-13 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The continuous-time portfolio problem consists of finding the optimal investment strategy of an investor. In the classical Merton problem the investor can allocate his funds to a riskless savings account and risky assets. However, to get explicit results, it is assumed that the interest rates are deterministic and that the assets are default free. In this monograph both assumptions are weakened: The author analyzes and solves portfolio problems with stochastic interest rates and with defaultable assets. Besides, he briefly discusses how portfolio problems with foreign assets can be handled. The focus of the monograph is twofold: On the one hand, the economical problems are carefully explained, on the other hand their formal solution is rigorously presented. For this reason the text should be of interest to researchers with a Finance background as well as to researchers with a more formal background who would like to see how mathematics is applied to portfolio theory.
Download or read book Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets written by George Chacko and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the optimal consumption and portfolio-choice problem of long-horizon investors who have access to a riskless asset with constant return and a risky asset (quot;stocksquot;) with constant expected return and time-varying precision-the reciprocal of volatility. Markets are incomplete, and investors have recursive preferences defined over intermediate consumption. The paper obtains a solution to this problem which is exact for investors with unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption and approximate otherwise. The optimal portfolio demand for stocks includes an intertemporal hedging component that is negative when investors have coefficients of relative risk aversion larger than one, and the instantaneous correlation between volatility and stock returns is negative, as typically estimated from stock return data. Our estimates of the joint process for stock returns and precision (or volatility) using U.S. data confirm this finding. But we also find that stock return volatility does not appear to be variable and persistent enough to generate large intertemporal hedging demands.
Download or read book The Horizon Effect of Stock Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty on Portfolio Choice written by Guangjie Li and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills written by Roy Henriksson and published by . This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Download or read book Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Theory written by Kerry Back and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 745 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today all would agree that Mexico and the United States have never been closer--that the fates of the two republics are intertwined. Mexico has become an intimate part of life in almost every community in the United States, through immigration, imported produce, business ties, or illegal drugs. It is less a neighbor than a sibling; no matter what our differences, it is intricately a part of our existence. In the fully updated second edition of Mexico: What Everyone Needs to Know(R), Roderic Ai Camp gives readers the most essential information about our sister republic to the south. Camp organizes chapters around major themes--security and violence, economic development, foreign relations, the colonial heritage, and more. He asks questions that take us beyond the headlines: Why does Mexico have so much drug violence? What was the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement? How democratic is Mexico? Who were Benito Juarez and Pancho Villa? What is the PRI (the Institutional Revolutionary Party)? The answers are sometimes surprising. Despite ratification of NAFTA, for example, Mexico has fallen behind Brazil and Chile in economic growth and rates of poverty. Camp explains that lack of labor flexibility, along with low levels of transparency and high levels of corruption, make Mexico less competitive than some other Latin American countries. The drug trade, of course, enhances corruption and feeds on poverty; approximately 450,000 Mexicans now work in this sector. Brisk, clear, and informed, Mexico: What Everyone Needs To Know(R) offers a valuable primer for anyone interested in the past, present, and future of our neighbor to the South. Links to video interviews with prominent Mexicans appear throughout the text. The videos can be accessed at through The Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Latin American History at http: //latinamericanhistory.oxfordre.com/page/videos/
Download or read book Portfolio Choice Over the Life Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets are Cointegrated written by Luca Benzoni and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study portfolio choice when labor income and dividends are cointegrated. Economically plausible calibrations suggest young investors should take substantial short positions in the stock market. Because of cointegration the young agent's human capital electively becomes stock-like. However, for older agents with shorter times - to - retirement, cointegration does not have sufficient time to act, and thus their human capital becomes more bond-like. Together, these exects create hump - shaped life - cycle portfolio holdings, consistent with empirical observation. These results hold even when asset return predictability is accounted for.
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Economics written by Karl Schmedders and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Computational Economics summarizes recent advances in economic thought, revealing some of the potential offered by modern computational methods. With computational power increasing in hardware and algorithms, many economists are closing the gap between economic practice and the frontiers of computational mathematics. In their efforts to accelerate the incorporation of computational power into mainstream research, contributors to this volume update the improvements in algorithms that have sharpened econometric tools, solution methods for dynamic optimization and equilibrium models, and applications to public finance, macroeconomics, and auctions. They also cover the switch to massive parallelism in the creation of more powerful computers, with advances in the development of high-power and high-throughput computing. Much more can be done to expand the value of computational modeling in economics. In conjunction with volume one (1996) and volume two (2006), this volume offers a remarkable picture of the recent development of economics as a science as well as an exciting preview of its future potential. - Samples different styles and approaches, reflecting the breadth of computational economics as practiced today - Focuses on problems with few well-developed solutions in the literature of other disciplines - Emphasizes the potential for increasing the value of computational modeling in economics
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
