Download or read book Population Projections Dueling Experts and Competition for Growth written by Edward J. Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In those places where plans are binding and are required to be coherent, the factual foundations of those plans, on which allocation of lands needed for housing, commerce and employment, are critical. Population projections are one foundation for determining needed lands and are necessary for consideration of alternative growth scenarios, rates of growth and selection of areas to be developed. Population projections are even more important in a system that purports to coordinate local and regional plans. As more jurisdictions undertake coordinated planning, a credible and uniform method of growth projections, including population projections, is necessary. Already, there are federal coordination expectations for housing and transportation grants in the United States. Such uniformity and coordination is standard fare in most European jurisdictions. This paper will present population projections as a symbol of the transition that most American states must deal with in providing a coherent coordinated growth program out of a system that left planning and regulation of land use almost entirely to local governments. Left to their own devices, local governments will often be guided by parochial considerations in undertaking growth projections. Experts can always be found to support almost any view. Growth-demanding governments will hire experts with rose-colored glasses while no-growth governments will stress physical and environmental constraints, pessimistic business projections and the like. Even when there is agreement in a multi-jurisdictional area, allocation of population (and thus of growth) is often hard fought. Most public agency projections will receive judicial deference if challenged. However while individual projections may be defensible, they may not always mesh to form a coherent whole. Moreover, when inconsistent projections are made by jurisdictions competing for growth, the planning system is faced with “dueling experts” and the result is confusion in the absence of an entity that is able to resolve conflicts. Even where there is such an entity, it is often caught in the middle and attempts to avoid controversy, to the detriment of coordinated planning. Related conflicts occur over competition among municipalities for planning, annexing, and urbanizing current rural lands. Without a clear, respected and authoritative process, conflict will continue. This paper will present the resolution of this conflict in Oregon, where coordinated planning has been in place for over forty years. One of the compromises necessary to achieve the establishment of the state system was to allow local governments to make population projections and for counties to “coordinate” population for the cities within the county and for its unincorporated areas. The result was unsatisfactory. First, there was no obligation for counties to justify their own population figures with overall state projections. Secondly, counties found it politically difficult to make hard decisions when the projections of the county and its cities did not match overall population projections for the county as a whole. After much strife and some stopgap solutions, the Oregon legislature adopted a dual solution. In the Portland Metropolitan Area, which has an elected regional governing body, a politically responsible body, the Metro Council, makes future population and growth allocations for the cities and counties in the region. The paper explains the peculiar dynamics of the Portland Metro Area, which lends itself to this approach. For the remainder of the state, cities and counties must accept those population projections made by Portland State University's Population Research Center, which has expertise and now the political responsibility to make binding projections. The decennial census required by the United States Constitution provides a reality check on state projections. Administrative rules now govern the specifics of projections made by the Center. Disputes over responsibility for population projections and the role of those projections on growth in a region or state over different visions of growth among local governments are not unique. As other states move to a model of coordinated state planning, attention to those issues will be helpful to a more expeditious resolution of these conflicts.

Download or read book A Practitioner s Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of technological and methodological changes affecting the production of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

Download or read book Population Projections and Their Accuracy written by Usha D. Agrawal and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Expert Testimony written by Steven Lubet and published by Aspen Publishing. This book was released on 2014-08-06 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It will give experts the confidence they need to be comfortable in court, and give you the skills necessary to emphasize the credibility of your experts. You can avoid pitfalls such as unintentional signals, inappropriate demeanor and appearance, and awkward body language by using Expert Testimony: A Guide for Expert Witnesses and the Lawyers Who Examine Them, Third Edition as your guide. Elizabeth Boals and Steve Lubet coauthored the Third Edition of Expert Testimony: A Guide for Expert Witnesses and the Lawyers Who Examine Them expanding and amplifying the original book with: New guidance on the development and presentation of expert testimony in the digital age, including discussion of visual aids and electronic discovery, Updated analysis of the Federal Rules of Evidence and Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, Updated discussion of the ethical rules governing expert retention and testimony, Examples of expert witness examinations and detailed discussion of techniques for coping with lawyer questioning, Checklists for quick reference. The collaborative effort of Professors Lubet and Boals has resulted in a Third Edition that is worthwhile to both the expert witnesses and the lawyers who examine them.

Download or read book Mock Trials written by Steven Lubet and published by Aspen Publishing. This book was released on 2014-04-26 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A mock trial may officially begin with opening statements, but experienced competitors know that the dialogue between counsel and the court beforehand can make or break their chances of prevailing. In this new edition of Mock Trials the authors have added an entire new chapter (Pretrial Matters) to explain the questions students should ask before a mock trial begins and why the answers to those questions are important. Just as in an actual trial, pre-trial matters do matter in mock trials because they can affect nearly every aspect of case preparation and presentation. First published in 2000, Mock Trials has become the leading textbook used by students and coaches to prepare for mock trial competitions. The Second Edition improves upon the first by providing students and coaches at every level with a complete step-by-step guide to preparing, presenting, and winning a mock trial. Diagrams, charts and summaries, as well as sample fact scenarios, colloquies, and arguments, are used to explain complicated concepts simply in an easy-to-follow and interesting manner. This textbook is specifically designed for use by pre-law and law students, but the legal and stylistic techniques it teaches remain applicable throughout lawyers’ careers. For high school and undergraduate students competing in mock trials or considering a career in law, Mock Trials gives a solid overview of the conduct of a trial from start to finish. It’s also perfect for mock trial coaches to use as a how-to guide.

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2018-02-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

Download or read book Modern Trial Advocacy written by Steven Lubet and published by Aspen Publishing. This book was released on 2020-08-27 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the moment it was released nearly thirty years ago, Modern Trial Advocacy has been the go-to textbook of law professors from coast to coast, offering a sophisticated, theory-driven approach to advocacy training that distinguishes it from all other books in the field. Authors Steven Lubet and J.C. Lore have updated this modern classic by merging it with features of the law school edition, creating an invaluable reference for litigators and trial lawyers at every stage in their career. This all-inclusive edition introduces handy checklists and a chapter on trial basics, as well as new research on juror perception and decision making, cross-examination techniques to use when discovery is limited, and exclusive online materials, including demonstration videos, that will enhance your acquisition of skills. Now that the remote practice of law has become a part of our system of justice, readers will find the skills taught in these pages as applicable to online trial preparation and hearings (and even, perhaps, to the future of trials) as they are in face-to-face litigation. As NITA’s bestselling text since 1993, Modern Trial Advocacy remains the gold standard in advocacy treatises.

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council (U.S.) and published by U.S. Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2012 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC's previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future, which would be an impossible feat, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries, from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups, to solicit reviews of the report.

Download or read book Empty Planet written by Darrell Bricker and published by Signal. This book was released on 2019-02-05 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the authors of the bestselling The Big Shift, a provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape. For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different kind of alarm. Rather than growing exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline. Throughout history, depopulation was the product of catastrophe: ice ages, plagues, the collapse of civilizations. This time, however, we're thinning ourselves deliberately, by choosing to have fewer babies than we need to replace ourselves. In much of the developed and developing world, that decline is already underway, as urbanization, women's empowerment, and waning religiosity lead to smaller and smaller families. In Empty Planet, Ibbitson and Bricker travel from South Florida to Sao Paulo, Seoul to Nairobi, Brussels to Delhi to Beijing, drawing on a wealth of research and firsthand reporting to illustrate the dramatic consequences of this population decline--and to show us why the rest of the developing world will soon join in. They find that a smaller global population will bring with it a number of benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; good jobs will prompt innovation; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women. But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as aging populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States is well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts--that is, unless growing isolationism and anti-immigrant backlash lead us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever before. Rigorously researched and deeply compelling, Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent--but one that we can shape, if we choose.

Download or read book Secular Cycles written by Peter Turchin and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-09 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications."--BOOK JACKET.

Download or read book Democracy and Education written by John Dewey and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 1916 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: . Renewal of Life by Transmission. The most notable distinction between living and inanimate things is that the former maintain themselves by renewal. A stone when struck resists. If its resistance is greater than the force of the blow struck, it remains outwardly unchanged. Otherwise, it is shattered into smaller bits. Never does the stone attempt to react in such a way that it may maintain itself against the blow, much less so as to render the blow a contributing factor to its own continued action. While the living thing may easily be crushed by superior force, it none the less tries to turn the energies which act upon it into means of its own further existence. If it cannot do so, it does not just split into smaller pieces (at least in the higher forms of life), but loses its identity as a living thing. As long as it endures, it struggles to use surrounding energies in its own behalf. It uses light, air, moisture, and the material of soil. To say that it uses them is to say that it turns them into means of its own conservation. As long as it is growing, the energy it expends in thus turning the environment to account is more than compensated for by the return it gets: it grows. Understanding the word "control" in this sense, it may be said that a living being is one that subjugates and controls for its own continued activity the energies that would otherwise use it up. Life is a self-renewing process through action upon the environment.

Download or read book All the Facts written by James W. Cortada and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-16 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All the Facts presents a history of the role of information in the United States since 1870, when the nation began a nearly 150-year period of economic prosperity and technological and scientific transformations. James Cortada argues that citizens and their institutions used information extensively as tools to augment their work and private lives and that they used facts to help shape how the nation evolved during these fourteen decades. He argues that information's role has long been a critical component of the work, play, culture, and values of this nation, and no more so than during the twentieth century when its function in society expanded dramatically. While elements of this story have been examined by thousands of scholars---such as the role of radio, newspapers, books, computers, and the Internet, about such institutions as education, big business, expanded roles of governments from town administration to the state house, from agriculture to the services and information industries---All the Facts looks at all of these elements holistically, providing a deeper insight into the way the United States evolved over time. An introduction and 11 chapters describe what this information ecosystem looked like, how it evolved, and how it was used. For another vast layer of information about this subject the reader is directed to the detailed bibliographic essay in the back of this book. It includes a narrative history, case studies in the form of sidebars, and stories illustrating key points. Readers will find, for example, the story of how the US postal system helped create today's information society, along with everything from books and newspapers to TV, computers, and the Internet. The build-up to what many today call the Information Age took a long time to achieve and continues to build momentum. The implications for the world, and not just for the United States, are as profound as any mega-trend one could identify in the history of humankind. All the Facts presents this development thoroughly in an easy-to-digest format that any lover of history, technology, or the history of information and business will enjoy.

Download or read book Command Of The Air written by General Giulio Douhet and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2014-08-15 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the pantheon of air power spokesmen, Giulio Douhet holds center stage. His writings, more often cited than perhaps actually read, appear as excerpts and aphorisms in the writings of numerous other air power spokesmen, advocates-and critics. Though a highly controversial figure, the very controversy that surrounds him offers to us a testimonial of the value and depth of his work, and the need for airmen today to become familiar with his thought. The progressive development of air power to the point where, today, it is more correct to refer to aerospace power has not outdated the notions of Douhet in the slightest In fact, in many ways, the kinds of technological capabilities that we enjoy as a global air power provider attest to the breadth of his vision. Douhet, together with Hugh “Boom” Trenchard of Great Britain and William “Billy” Mitchell of the United States, is justly recognized as one of the three great spokesmen of the early air power era. This reprint is offered in the spirit of continuing the dialogue that Douhet himself so perceptively began with the first edition of this book, published in 1921. Readers may well find much that they disagree with in this book, but also much that is of enduring value. The vital necessity of Douhet’s central vision-that command of the air is all important in modern warfare-has been proven throughout the history of wars in this century, from the fighting over the Somme to the air war over Kuwait and Iraq.

Download or read book The Sticking Point Solution written by Jay Abraham and published by ReadHowYouWant.com. This book was released on 2010-06 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Businesses can plateau, stall, OR stagnatewithout the owners or key executives even realizing it. A business might be achieving incremental year-on-year growth and yet still be in a situation of stagnation or stall. Why? Because entrepreneurs and ...

Download or read book The End of Normal written by James K. Galbraith and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2014-09-09 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From one of the most respected economic thinkers and writers of our time, a brilliant argument about the history and future of economic growth. The years since the Great Crisis of 2008 have seen slow growth, high unemployment, falling home values, chronic deficits, a deepening disaster in Europe—and a stale argument between two false solutions, “austerity” on one side and “stimulus” on the other. Both sides and practically all analyses of the crisis so far take for granted that the economic growth from the early 1950s until 2000—interrupted only by the troubled 1970s—represented a normal performance. From this perspective, the crisis was an interruption, caused by bad policy or bad people, and full recovery is to be expected if the cause is corrected. The End of Normal challenges this view. Placing the crisis in perspective, Galbraith argues that the 1970s already ended the age of easy growth. The 1980s and 1990s saw only uneven growth, with rising inequality within and between countries. And the 2000s saw the end even of that—despite frantic efforts to keep growth going with tax cuts, war spending, and financial deregulation. When the crisis finally came, stimulus and automatic stabilization were able to place a floor under economic collapse. But they are not able to bring about a return to high growth and full employment. In The End of Normal, “Galbraith puts his pessimism into an engaging, plausible frame. His contentions deserve the attention of all economists and serious financial minds across the political spectrum” (Publishers Weekly, starred review).

Download or read book Warfighting written by Department of the Navy and published by Vigeo Press. This book was released on 2018-10 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The manual describes the general strategy for the U.S. Marines but it is beneficial for not only every Marine to read but concepts on leadership can be gathered to lead a business to a family. If you want to see what make Marines so effective this book is a good place to start.