Download or read book Political Uncertainty written by Gergana Dimova and published by ibidem. This book was released on 2023-03-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely book provides a comprehensive analysis of political uncertainty and one of the first efforts to empirically measure it. Gergana Dimova compares political ambiguity within both established as well as unconsolidated democracies and explores institutional, behavioral, and media factors influencing such uncertainty. Combining aggregate statistical analysis and qualitative case studies, she seeks to provide answers to some hotly discussed questions of comparative politics, such as: To what extent is uncertainty invariable and unavoidable in political life? Why does uncertainty arise and how is it affecting liberal democracies? In conclusion, Dimova argues that even in so-called "managed democracies," such as Russia, uncertainty is rife. Yet it is of a very different type there than ambiguity in more established democracies, such as Germany. Overall, this book furnishes important insights about the value of uncertain actions in political life and useful tips about how and when to combat it.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Ian Scoones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-07-14 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why is uncertainty so important to politics today? To explore the underlying reasons, issues and challenges, this book’s chapters address finance and banking, insurance, technology regulation and critical infrastructures, as well as climate change, infectious disease responses, natural disasters, migration, crime and security and spirituality and religion. The book argues that uncertainties must be understood as complex constructions of knowledge, materiality, experience, embodiment and practice. Examining in particular how uncertainties are experienced in contexts of marginalisation and precarity, this book shows how sustainability and development are not just technical issues, but depend deeply on political values and choices. What burgeoning uncertainties require lies less in escalating efforts at control, but more in a new – more collective, mutualistic and convivial – politics of responsibility and care. If hopes of much-needed progressive transformation are to be realised, then currently blinkered understandings of uncertainty need to be met with renewed democratic struggle. Written in an accessible style and illustrated by multiple case studies from across the world, this book will appeal to a wide cross-disciplinary audience in fields ranging from economics to law to science studies to sociology to anthropology and geography, as well as professionals working in risk management, disaster risk reduction, emergencies and wider public policy fields.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Peter Marris and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Politics of Uncertainty Peter Marris examines one of the most crucial and least studied aspects of social relationships: how we manage uncertainty, from the child's struggle for secure attachment to the competitive strategies of multinational corporations. Using a powerful synthesis of social and psychological theory, he shows how strategies of competition interact with the individual's sense of personal agency to place the heaviest burden of uncertainty on those with the fewest social and economic resources. He argues that these strategies maximize uncertainty for everyone by undermining the reciprocity essential to successful economic and social relationships. At a time when global economic reorganisation is undermining security of employment, The Politics of Uncertainty makes a convincing case for strategies of co-operation at both personal and political levels to ensure our economic and social survival in the twenty-first century.
Download or read book Political Uncertainty Violence and Hope in Uganda written by Charles Kisembo and published by Strategic Book Publishing & Rights Agency. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political Uncertainty, Violence and Hope in Uganda: A Personal Account demonstrates both the tumultuous and hopeful aspects of Uganda’s political history. Much as the first 20 years of Uganda’s independence saw politics of experimentation, intrigue, and lack of ethics, sliding the country into a journey of uncertainty and violence, the latter years saw hope and economic progress. The book first introduces the author, both as a civilian and a soldier. Chapter 2 examines Milton Obote’s social, economic, and military policies, and how they catapulted Idi Amin to power in 1971. Chapter 3 crystallizes Uganda’s political uncertainty and violence, which saw over 300,000 Ugandans murdered under Amin. Subsequent chapters describe the armed national efforts to depose Amin and Obote from power. These culminated in Museveni’s takeover from the Okello Junta in 1986. The Museveni takeover triggered a series of political oppositions and insurgencies that spanned almost 20 years. The NRA/NRM has since neutralized and defeated those insurgencies, ushering in unprecedented peace and hope that have seen Uganda recover from economic quagmire and political turmoil to a developing country. Uganda is now bracing for middle-income status, which ushers in the book’s last chapter: Is There Hope for Uganda?
Download or read book Public Diplomacy and the Politics of Uncertainty written by Pawel Surowiec and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-26 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited book explores the multi-layered relationships between public diplomacy and intensified uncertainties stemming from transnational political trends. It is the latest wave of political uncertainty that provides the background as well as yields evidence scrutinised by authors contributing to this book. The book argues that due to a state of perpetual crises, the simultaneity of diplomatic tensions and new digital modalities of power, international politics increasingly resembles a networked set of hyper-realities. Embracing multi-polar competition, superpowers such as Russia flex their muscles over their neighbours; celebrated ‘success stories’ of democratisation – Hungary, Poland and Czechia – move towards illiberal governance; old players of international politics such as Britain and America re-claim “greatness”, while other states, like China, adapt expansionist foreign policy goals. The contributors to this book consider the different ways in which transnational political trends and digitalisation breed uncertainty and shape the practice of public diplomacy.
Download or read book Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty written by Nora Stel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-04 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lebanon hosts the highest number of refugees per capita worldwide and is central to European policies of outsourcing migration management. Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty is the first book to critically and comprehensively explore the parallels between the country’s engagement with the recent Syrian refugee influx and the more protracted Palestinian presence. Drawing on fieldwork, qualitative case-studies, and critical policy analysis, it questions the dominant idea that the haphazardness, inconsistency, and fragmentation of refugee governance are only the result of forced displacement or host state fragility and the related capacity problems. It demonstrates that the endemic ambiguity that determines refugee governance also results from a lack of political will to create coherent and comprehensive rules of engagement to address refugee ‘crises.’ Building on emerging literatures in the fields of critical refugee studies, hybrid governance, and ignorance studies, it proposes an innovative conceptual framework to capture the spatial, temporal, and procedural dimensions of the uncertainty that refugees face and to tease out the strategic components of the reproduction and extension of such informality, liminality, and exceptionalism. In developing the notion of a ‘politics of uncertainty,’ ambiguity is explored as a component of a governmentality that enables the control, exploitation, and expulsion of refugees. Introduction Chapter of this book is available for free in PDF format as Open Access from the individual product page at www.routledge.com. It has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Download or read book Politics and Uncertainty written by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-07-16 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book Global Instability written by S. McBride and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Instability: Uncertainty and New Visions in Political Economy presents a series of papers that address the political consequences of globalization for states and their populations, while exploring the issue of alternatives to the model of globalization we are presently experiencing. The focus moves from the world of international agreements to the national and sub-national dilemmas that are posed by attempting to manage a set of global developments within a given territory. The initial chapter, by Daniel Drache, explores a still-born post-war international organization, the International Trade Organization, that offers a different vision of how a globally integrated economy might operate. A number of papers then explore the challenges posed by today's globalization, including currency instability in an environment of financial deregulation, the rights conferred on investors by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the progressive liberalization of trade in services built into the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Intentions in Great Power Politics written by Sebastian Rosato and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2021-04-20 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past Can great powers be confident that their peers have benign intentions? States that trust each other can live at peace; those that mistrust each other are doomed to compete for arms and allies and may even go to war. Sebastian Rosato explains that states routinely lack the kind of information they need to be convinced that their rivals mean them no harm. Even in cases that supposedly involved mutual trust—Germany and Russia in the Bismarck era; Britain and the United States during the great rapprochement; France and Germany, and Japan and the United States in the early interwar period; and the Soviet Union and United States at the end of the Cold War—the protagonists mistrusted each other and struggled for advantage. Rosato argues that the ramifications of his argument for U.S.–China relations are profound: the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past.
Download or read book Leadership and Uncertainty Management in Politics written by François Vergniolle De Chantal and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-08-11 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a range of international case studies from the USA, UK, France, Germany and Italy, this text assesses the conditions necessary for effective leadership and emphasizes the part played by uncertainty and division amongst followers.
Download or read book Agendas and Instability in American Politics written by Frank R. Baumgartner and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When Agendas and Instability in American Politics appeared fifteen years ago, offering a profoundly original account of how policy issues rise and fall on the national agenda, the Journal of Politics predicted that it would “become a landmark study of public policy making and American politics.” That prediction proved true and, in this long-awaited second edition, Bryan Jones and Frank Baumgartner refine their influential argument and expand it to illuminate the workings of democracies beyond the United States. The authors retain all the substance of their contention that short-term, single-issue analyses cast public policy too narrowly as the result of cozy and dependable arrangements among politicians, interest groups, and the media. Jones and Baumgartner provide a different interpretation by taking the long view of several issues—including nuclear energy, urban affairs, smoking, and auto safety—to demonstrate that bursts of rapid, unpredictable policy change punctuate the patterns of stability more frequently associated with government. Featuring a new introduction and two additional chapters, this updated edition ensures that their findings will remain a touchstone of policy studies for many years to come.
Download or read book Lobbying Political Uncertainty and Policy Outcomes written by Sebastian Koehler and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-28 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses interest group communication strategies in parliamentary political systems, and considers how political uncertainty, which emerges from the political process, shapes interest group communication strategies. It develops a formal model of lobbying in a bicameral legislature with strong party discipline, and discusses why interest groups choose public or private communication channels to influence political bargaining. The book tests its hypothesis in different policy contexts, including lobbying on major legislation in the field of labour and social policy.
Download or read book Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a coordinated portfolio investment survey guide provided to assist national compilers in the conduct of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, conducted under the auspices of the IMF with reference to the year-end 1997. The guide covers a variety of conceptual issues that a country must address when conducting a survey. It also covers the practical issues associated with preparing for a national survey. These include setting a timetable, taking account of the legal and confidentiality issues raised, developing a mailing list, and maintaining quality control checks.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Andreas Schedler and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a major new theory of authoritarian politics. It studies regime struggles between government and opposition under electoral authoritarianism and argues that autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties.
