Download or read book Planning Based on Decision Theory written by Giacomo Della Riccia and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-04 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Planning of actions based on decision theory is a hot topic for many disciplines. Seemingly unlimited computing power, networking, integration and collaboration have meanwhile attracted the attention of fields like Machine Learning, Operations Research, Management Science and Computer Science. Software agents of e-commerce, mediators of Information Retrieval Systems and Database based Information Systems are typical new application areas. Until now, planning methods were successfully applied in production, logistics, marketing, finance, management, and used in robots, software agents etc. It is the special feature of the book that planning is embedded into decision theory, and this will give the interested reader new perspectives to follow-up.

Download or read book Decision Trees for Decision Making written by John F. Magee and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Planning on Uncertainty written by Ruth Prince Mack and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1971 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book A Theory of Case Based Decisions written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-26 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.

Download or read book Decision Theory and Multi Agent Planning written by Giacomo Della Riccia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-03 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The work presents a modern, unified view on decision support and planning by considering its basics like preferences, belief, possibility and probability as well as utilities. These features together are immanent for software agents to believe the user that the agents are "intelligent".

Download or read book One Strategy written by Steven Sinofsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-11-23 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn from the concepts, capabilities, processes, and behaviors that aligned around one strategy with the hard-won, first-person wisdom found in One Strategy. Challenging traditional views of strategy and operational execution, this book-written by Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky with Harvard Business School professor Marco Iansiti-describes how you can drive innovation by connecting the potential of strategic opportunities to the impact of operational execution. Lessons from the unique combination of real-world experience managing a large scale organization with academic research in strategy and innovation Reveals what it takes to align a complex organization around one strategy, manage its execution, and reach for "strategic integrity" Written by Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky with Harvard Business School professor Marco Iansiti-a combined forty years of management and research experience A unique perspective on strategy development, alignment, and execution Drawn from Sinofsky's internal Microsoft blog where he communicated some of the management processes the team put to work while developing a 4,000 person, multi-year project-Microsoft Windows 7-One Strategy shares the hard-won insights you can use to successfully make the leap from strategy to execution.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Download or read book Strategic Marketing written by Peter W. Reed and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fully revised 3rd edition of Strategic Marketing: Decision-Making and Planning sets a framework for marketing decision-making as a part of a holistic approach to an organisationa s strategic management. It integrates expanded theoretical coverage with a step-by-step guide to each stage of the strategy development and management processes. The latest theories on how marketing strategy is conceptualised and practiced is examined alongside a framework to facilitate the practical application of relevant concepts, tools and techniques. A series of 10 dynamic interactive modules exploring each stage of the strategic marketing process are included and new features such as Strategy in Practice boxes and end-of-chapter Strategy in Action activities further highlight the connection between theory and application. Continuing to bridge the gap between theory learnt and the practice of writing a marketing plan or report, Strategic Marketing: Decision-Making and Planning 3e is an invaluable resource for students and practitioners alike.

Download or read book Strategic Management Decision Theory and Decision Science written by Bikas Kumar Sinha and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains international perspectives that unifies the themes of strategic management, decision theory, and data science. It contains thought-provoking presentations of case studies backed by adequate analysis adding significance to the discussions. Most of the decision-making models in use do take due advantage of collection and processing of relevant data using appropriate analytics oriented to provide inputs into effective decision-making. The book showcases applications in diverse fields including banking and insurance, portfolio management, inventory analysis, performance assessment of comparable economic agents, managing utilities in a health-care facility, reducing traffic snarls on highways, monitoring achievement of some of the sustainable development goals in a country or state, and similar other areas that showcase policy implications. It holds immense value for researchers as well as professionals responsible for organizational decisions.

Download or read book Data Driven Decision Making and Dynamic Planning written by Paul Preuss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-27 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book will help you understand how to integrate data-based decisions into the daily work of the school. It is a practical and relevant handbook for converting data into wise decision-making and planning. It will give you the skills to successfully make data-based decisions, measure student learning and program effectiveness, evaluate student progress, use data to improve instruction, integrate a "Dynamic Planning" process into the daily operation of your school.

Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Download or read book Decision making on Mega projects written by Hugo Priemus and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It will be useful for those experienced and senior professionals who are charged with authorizing and controlling projects. Recommended. P.F. Rad, Choice Building on the seminal work of Bent Flyvbjerg, this book is a collection of expert contributions that will prove essential to anyone wanting to understand why mega-projects go wrong and how they can be made to work better. Professor Sir Peter Hall, University College London, UK This book offers a refreshing and fascinating look at mega-projects from the perspective of public evaluation and planning. With the changing role of the public sector in planning and implementing large-scale projects and a subsequent strong emergence of private public modes of operation, mega-projects have become a problematic phenomenon. This volume is a major source of information and reference. It provides the reader with unique insights and caveats in mega-projects planning. Peter Nijkamp, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

Download or read book Multi objective Group Decision Making written by Jie Lu and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes a set of models to describe fuzzy multi-objective decision making (MODM), fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), fuzzy group decision making (GDM) and fuzzy multi-objective group decision-making problems, respectively. It also gives a set of related methods (including algorithms) to solve these problems. One distinguishing feature of this book is that it provides two decision support systems software for readers to apply these proposed methods. A set of real-world applications and some new directions in this area are then described to further instruct readers how to use these methods and software in their practice.

Download or read book Planning and Decision Making for Aerial Robots written by Yasmina Bestaoui Sebbane and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent. Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algorithmic development based on the available information, while decision making determines priorities and evaluates potential environmental uncertainties. The issues specific to planning and decision making for aerial robots in their environment are examined in this book and categorized as follows: motion planning, deterministic decision making, decision making under uncertainty and finally multi-robot planning. A variety of techniques are presented in this book, and a number of relevant case studies are examined. The topics considered in this book are multidisciplinary in nature and lie at the intersection of Robotics, Control Theory, Operational Research and Artificial Intelligence.

Download or read book Strategic Decision Making for Successful Planning written by C. J. Rhoads and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Turbulence is not new to the business world. In fact, turbulence is increasing, and managers are seeing teams spinning their wheels. Management systems are in a state of crisis and operations are more complex. The old top-down operations mode no longer suffices. Today's businesses demand speed and increased accuracy, forcing everyone to re-evaluate chains of command and tear down the walls between functions. Amid the responsibilities of traditional management lies problem solving. The push is toward moving decision-making authority down the ladder to all levels. Managers are no longer equipped to or capable of making the number and variety of necessary decisions in a vacuum. The current mode is to have employees deal directly with workplace issues and take corrective action without complaint and without management involvement. Coping with this reality and preparation for these improvements in workplace problem solving requires interest and motivation. Strategic Decision Making for Successful Planning can facilitate this by demystifying and simplifying the process. The book bridges philosophy and theory and puts together a practical integration of all the tools necessary to get results from your investment of time, energy, and money. What is unique about this book is while it's based on a strong academic foundation, it does not get bogged down in the human-planning or psychological process of solving problems. It doesn't provide "pie-in-the-sky" creative solutions or a five-year process for solving problems and planning for the future. Numerous techniques and tools are included to make the book the right balance between practical and academic. The book also includes an extensive case study to illustrate points made in the text.