Download or read book Permutation and Randomization Tests for Trading System Development written by Timothy Masters and published by . This book was released on 2020-02-12 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the trading system developer with a powerful set of statistical tools for measuring vital aspects of performance that are ignored by most developers. All algorithms include intuitive justification, basic theory, all relevant equations, and highly commented C++ code for complete programs that run in a Windows Command Console. Reprogramming them in other languages should be easy, given the detailed explanations of each algorithm. The following topics are covered: Testing for overfitting at the earliest possible stage Evaluating the luckiness-versus-skill of a fully developed system before deploying it Testing the effectiveness and reliability of a trading system factory Removing selection bias when screening a large number of indicators Probability bounds for future mean returns Bounding typical and catastrophic future drawdowns Is the best indicator or model in a competition truly the best, or just the luckiest? Which markets provide truly superior profits for your trading system? What holding time for your system provides the best risk/return performance?

Download or read book Cybernetic Trading Strategies written by Murray A. Ruggiero and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ein Überblick über die aktuellsten Technologien zum Aufbau einer Handelsstrategie: neuronale Netzwerke, genetische Algorithmen, Expertensysteme, Fuzzy logic und statistische Mustererkennung. Gezeigt wird, wie diese neuen Methoden in klassische Analysenverfahren integriert werden können. Auch Erläuterungen zur Prüfung und Bewertung existierender Systeme kommen nicht zu kurz.

Download or read book Randomization Tests written by Eugene S. Edgington and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Random assignment; Calculating significance values; One-way analysis of variance and the independent t test; Repeated-measures analysis of variance and the correlated t test; Factorial designs; Multivariate designs; Correlation; Trend tests; One-subject randomization tests.

Download or read book Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems written by Timothy Masters and published by Apress. This book was released on 2018-10-26 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. You’ve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its real-life performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations. This book does not contain any sure-fire, guaranteed-riches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its on-going performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book. What You Will Learn See how the 'spaghetti-on-the-wall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimatelyDetect overfitting early in developmentEstimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luckRegularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidatesRapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading systemAssess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changesEnhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicatorsNest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systemsCompute a lower bound on your system's mean future performanceBound expected periodic returns to detect on-going system deterioration before it becomes severeEstimate the probability of catastrophic drawdown Who This Book Is For Experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.

Download or read book Randomization Tests Fourth Edition written by Eugene Edgington and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The number of innovative applications of randomization tests in various fields and recent developments in experimental design, significance testing, computing facilities, and randomization test algorithms have necessitated a new edition of Randomization Tests. Updated, reorganized, and revised, the text emphasizes the irrelevance and implausibility of the random sampling assumption for the typical experiment in three completely rewritten chapters. It also discusses factorial designs and interactions and combines repeated-measures and randomized block designs in one chapter. The authors focus more attention on the practicality of N-of-1 randomization tests and the availability of user-friendly software to perform them. In addition, they provide an overview of free and commercial computer programs for all of the tests presented in the book. Building on the previous editions that have served as standard textbooks for more than twenty-five years, Randomization Tests, Fourth Edition includes a CD-ROM of up-to-date randomization test programs that facilitate application of the tests to experimental data. This CD-ROM enables students to work out problems that have been added to the chapters and helps professors teach the basics of randomization tests and devise tasks for assignments and examinations.

Download or read book Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments written by David Aronson and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book serves two purposes. First, it teaches the importance of using sophisticated yet accessible statistical methods to evaluate a trading system before it is put to real-world use. In order to accommodate readers having limited mathematical background, these techniques are illustrated with step-by-step examples using actual market data, and all examples are explained in plain language. Second, this book shows how the free program TSSB (Trading System Synthesis & Boosting) can be used to develop and test trading systems. The machine learning and statistical algorithms available in TSSB go far beyond those available in other off-the-shelf development software. Intelligent use of these state-of-the-art techniques greatly improves the likelihood of obtaining a trading system whose impressive backtest results continue when the system is put to use in a trading account. Among other things, this book will teach the reader how to: Estimate future performance with rigorous algorithms Evaluate the influence of good luck in backtests Detect overfitting before deploying your system Estimate performance bias due to model fitting and selection of seemingly superior systems Use state-of-the-art ensembles of models to form consensus trade decisions Build optimal portfolios of trading systems and rigorously test their expected performance Search thousands of markets to find subsets that are especially predictable Create trading systems that specialize in specific market regimes such as trending/flat or high/low volatility More information on the TSSB program can be found at TSSBsoftware dot com.

Download or read book Modern Data Mining Algorithms in C and CUDA C written by Timothy Masters and published by Apress. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover a variety of data-mining algorithms that are useful for selecting small sets of important features from among unwieldy masses of candidates, or extracting useful features from measured variables. As a serious data miner you will often be faced with thousands of candidate features for your prediction or classification application, with most of the features being of little or no value. You’ll know that many of these features may be useful only in combination with certain other features while being practically worthless alone or in combination with most others. Some features may have enormous predictive power, but only within a small, specialized area of the feature space. The problems that plague modern data miners are endless. This book helps you solve this problem by presenting modern feature selection techniques and the code to implement them. Some of these techniques are: Forward selection component analysis Local feature selection Linking features and a target with a hidden Markov modelImprovements on traditional stepwise selectionNominal-to-ordinal conversion All algorithms are intuitively justified and supported by the relevant equations and explanatory material. The author also presents and explains complete, highly commented source code. The example code is in C++ and CUDA C but Python or other code can be substituted; the algorithm is important, not the code that's used to write it. What You Will Learn Combine principal component analysis with forward and backward stepwise selection to identify a compact subset of a large collection of variables that captures the maximum possible variation within the entire set. Identify features that may have predictive power over only a small subset of the feature domain. Such features can be profitably used by modern predictive models but may be missed by other feature selection methods. Find an underlying hidden Markov model that controls the distributions of feature variables and the target simultaneously. The memory inherent in this method is especially valuable in high-noise applications such as prediction of financial markets.Improve traditional stepwise selection in three ways: examine a collection of 'best-so-far' feature sets; test candidate features for inclusion with cross validation to automatically and effectively limit model complexity; and at each step estimate the probability that our results so far could be just the product of random good luck. We also estimate the probability that the improvement obtained by adding a new variable could have been just good luck. Take a potentially valuable nominal variable (a category or class membership) that is unsuitable for input to a prediction model, and assign to each category a sensible numeric value that can be used as a model input. Who This Book Is For Intermediate to advanced data science programmers and analysts.

Download or read book Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures written by John F. Ehlers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-06 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cutting-edge insight from the leader in trading technology In Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures, noted technical analyst John Ehlers continues to enlighten readers on the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. With application of his engineering expertise, Ehlers explains the latest, most advanced techniques that help traders predict stock and futures markets with surgical precision. Unique new indicators and automatic trading systems are described in text as well as Easy Language and EFS code. The approaches are universal and robust enough to be applied to a full range of market conditions. John F. Ehlers (Santa Barbara, CA) is President of MESA Software (www.mesasoftware.com) and has also written Rocket Science for Traders (0-471-40567-1) as well as numerous articles for Futures and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazines.

Download or read book Introduction to Property Testing written by Oded Goldreich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An extensive and authoritative introduction to property testing, the study of super-fast algorithms for the structural analysis of large quantities of data in order to determine global properties. This book can be used both as a reference book and a textbook, and includes numerous exercises.

Download or read book Mathematics and Computation written by Avi Wigderson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-29 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to computational complexity theory, its connections and interactions with mathematics, and its central role in the natural and social sciences, technology, and philosophy Mathematics and Computation provides a broad, conceptual overview of computational complexity theory—the mathematical study of efficient computation. With important practical applications to computer science and industry, computational complexity theory has evolved into a highly interdisciplinary field, with strong links to most mathematical areas and to a growing number of scientific endeavors. Avi Wigderson takes a sweeping survey of complexity theory, emphasizing the field’s insights and challenges. He explains the ideas and motivations leading to key models, notions, and results. In particular, he looks at algorithms and complexity, computations and proofs, randomness and interaction, quantum and arithmetic computation, and cryptography and learning, all as parts of a cohesive whole with numerous cross-influences. Wigderson illustrates the immense breadth of the field, its beauty and richness, and its diverse and growing interactions with other areas of mathematics. He ends with a comprehensive look at the theory of computation, its methodology and aspirations, and the unique and fundamental ways in which it has shaped and will further shape science, technology, and society. For further reading, an extensive bibliography is provided for all topics covered. Mathematics and Computation is useful for undergraduate and graduate students in mathematics, computer science, and related fields, as well as researchers and teachers in these fields. Many parts require little background, and serve as an invitation to newcomers seeking an introduction to the theory of computation. Comprehensive coverage of computational complexity theory, and beyond High-level, intuitive exposition, which brings conceptual clarity to this central and dynamic scientific discipline Historical accounts of the evolution and motivations of central concepts and models A broad view of the theory of computation's influence on science, technology, and society Extensive bibliography

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book Interviews Observation and Focus Groups written by Robert Curedale and published by Design Community College. This book was released on 2013-04-01 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The methods described in this book can be used by designers to better understand the perspectives of the people that the designs are intended for. They will help the design team: 1. Make informed design decisions 2. Identify areas of opportunity 3. Analyzing a competitive landscape 4. To understand trends 5. To analyze complex, changing and ambiguous design problems 6. Enable meaningful conversations about difficult design topics 7. Use real-time information to help identify problems and make the best decisions 8. Create design that has a better return on investment 9. Understand your customer's perspectives 10. Create more successful design. These user-centered methods can be applied to support informed design decisions as part of a Design Thinking approach. Design Thinking is an approach to designing products, services, architecture, spaces and experiences that is being quickly adopted by designers, architects and some of the world's leading brands. This book is an indispensable reference guide for: 1. Architects, industrial designers, interior designers, UX and web designers, service designers, exhibit designers, design educators and students, visual communication designers, packaging and fashion designers, all types of designers 2. Engineers and Marketing professionals 3. Executives and senior business leaders 4. Decision makers in R&D of products, services, systems and experiences 5. School teachers and school students

Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance written by Don L. McLeish and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods have been used for decades in physics, engineering, statistics, and other fields. Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance explains the nuts and bolts of this essential technique used to value derivatives and other securities. Author and educator Don McLeish examines this fundamental process, and discusses important issues, including specialized problems in finance that Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods can help solve and the different ways Monte Carlo methods can be improved upon. This state-of-the-art book on Monte Carlo simulation methods is ideal for finance professionals and students. Order your copy today.

Download or read book Statistics and Probability for Engineering Applications written by William DeCoursey and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-05-14 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics and Probability for Engineering Applications provides a complete discussion of all the major topics typically covered in a college engineering statistics course. This textbook minimizes the derivations and mathematical theory, focusing instead on the information and techniques most needed and used in engineering applications. It is filled with practical techniques directly applicable on the job. Written by an experienced industry engineer and statistics professor, this book makes learning statistical methods easier for today's student. This book can be read sequentially like a normal textbook, but it is designed to be used as a handbook, pointing the reader to the topics and sections pertinent to a particular type of statistical problem. Each new concept is clearly and briefly described, whenever possible by relating it to previous topics. Then the student is given carefully chosen examples to deepen understanding of the basic ideas and how they are applied in engineering. The examples and case studies are taken from real-world engineering problems and use real data. A number of practice problems are provided for each section, with answers in the back for selected problems. This book will appeal to engineers in the entire engineering spectrum (electronics/electrical, mechanical, chemical, and civil engineering); engineering students and students taking computer science/computer engineering graduate courses; scientists needing to use applied statistical methods; and engineering technicians and technologists. * Filled with practical techniques directly applicable on the job * Contains hundreds of solved problems and case studies, using real data sets * Avoids unnecessary theory

Download or read book Introductory Statistics with Randomization and Simulation written by David M. Diez and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-18 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook may be downloaded as a free PDF on the project's website, and the paperback is sold royalty-free. OpenIntro develops free textbooks and course resources for introductory statistics that exceeds the quality standards of traditional textbooks and resources, and that maximizes accessibility options for the typical student. The approach taken in this textbooks differs from OpenIntro Statistics in its introduction to inference. The foundations for inference are provided using randomization and simulation methods. Once a solid foundation is formed, a transition is made to traditional approaches, where the normal and t distributions are used for hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals.

Download or read book Statistics in a Nutshell written by Sarah Boslaugh and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2012-11-15 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A clear and concise introduction and reference for anyone new to the subject of statistics.

Download or read book Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-09-03 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data mining of massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, entertainment, cybersecurity and national intelligence. Collections of documents, images, videos, and networks are being thought of not merely as bit strings to be stored, indexed, and retrieved, but as potential sources of discovery and knowledge, requiring sophisticated analysis techniques that go far beyond classical indexing and keyword counting, aiming to find relational and semantic interpretations of the phenomena underlying the data. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis examines the frontier of analyzing massive amounts of data, whether in a static database or streaming through a system. Data at that scale-terabytes and petabytes-is increasingly common in science (e.g., particle physics, remote sensing, genomics), Internet commerce, business analytics, national security, communications, and elsewhere. The tools that work to infer knowledge from data at smaller scales do not necessarily work, or work well, at such massive scale. New tools, skills, and approaches are necessary, and this report identifies many of them, plus promising research directions to explore. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis discusses pitfalls in trying to infer knowledge from massive data, and it characterizes seven major classes of computation that are common in the analysis of massive data. Overall, this report illustrates the cross-disciplinary knowledge-from computer science, statistics, machine learning, and application disciplines-that must be brought to bear to make useful inferences from massive data.