Download or read book Perceptions and Expectations of Price Changes and Inflation written by Rob Ranyard and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Perceptions of Inflation and the Formation of Price Expectations written by Lucia F. Dunn and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study analyzes data from survey questions which obtain both (1) inflationary expectations in continuous numerical terms for the coming 12 months from a survey sample and (2) the subjects' perceptions of what inflation had been over the previous 12 months, again in continuous numerical terms. The data used here are for the period 1974 -77 when inflation reached unusually high levels due to energy shocks after two decades of relatively modest price change. This provides a unique opportunity to examine subjects in a period when they were adjusting to a dramatically changed price environment. The findings show a systematic basis towards over-estimation, or exaggeration, in perceived inflation rates which increases as actual inflation rates accelerate. As estimated from these data, perceptions of inflation are found to approach their most accurate level when actual inflation is at its lowest level, which was 4.2% in that period. Even in this case, the exaggeration factor was 2.16. Perceived rates of inflation for specific expenditure categories were also studied for a subsample and again showed substantial over-estimation, but with the same rank ordering as actual rates of inflation for the categories. Finally, we use the data on perceived as well as expected rates of inflation from the same sample to fit both the adaptive and the extrapolative models of price expectations. The adaptive expectations model is also fitted with the actual rather than perceived rate of inflation utilizing a panel component of our initial survey sample. The use of perceived rates is found to be superior in fitting this model. Socioeconomic variables are also examined, and mostly notably, women are found to have significantly greater over-perceptions of inflation than men.
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Strategies Perceptions and Expectations Regarding Price Changes and Real Income in a Time of Inflation written by Glen H. Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Revisiting the Inflation Perception Conundrum written by Kim Abildgren and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several studies have found that the levels of inflation perceived by households persistently exceed observed inflation levels measured by official Consumer Price Indices. In this paper, we revisit the issue based on rich and previously unexplored household-level data from the Danish part of the EU-Harmonised Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) linked to microdata from Danish administrative registers. We find that accounting for even several of the factors usually put forward to explain the overestimation bias can only reduce it slightly. Food prices seem to carry a larger weight in perceived inflation than in the official CPI, and we find clear seasonal effects in the inflation perception bias. The bias is also reflected in the households' expectations of the future inflation level. One should therefore not use the levels of survey-based inflation expectations from the CES in empirical works. We find a much smaller bias in the expectations regarding future changes in inflation rates. Implementing some form of guidance on the current or typical rate of inflation in the survey questions might reduce the bias. However, the bias might also indicate a more general need for enhanced communication by monetary authorities and statistical agencies regarding the rather abstract concept of "inflation".
Download or read book Uncertainty about Inflationary Perceptions and Expectations written by Lars Jonung and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational written by Lars Jonung and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Download or read book Economic Psychology written by Rob Ranyard and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-06-22 with total page 651 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive overview of contemporary economic psychology Economic Psychology presents an accessible overview of contemporary economic psychology. The science of economic mental life and behavior is increasingly relevant as people are expected to take more responsibility for their household and personal economic decisions. The text will, in addition to reviewing current knowledge on each topic presented, consider the practical and policy implications for supporting economic decision making. Economic Psychology examines the central aspects of adult decision making in everyday life and includes the theories of economic decision making based on risk, value and affect, and theories of intertemporal choice. The text reviews the nature and behavioral consequences of economic mental representations about such things as material possessions, money and the economy. The editor Robert Ranyard—a noted expert on economic psychology—presents a life-span developmental approach, from childhood to old age. He also reviews the important societal issues such as charitable giving and economic sustainability. This vital resource: Reviews the economic psychology in everyday life including financial behaviour such as saving and tax-paying and matters such as entrepreneurial activity Offers an introduction to the field and traces the emergence of the discipline, from Adam Smith to George Katona and Herbert Simon Includes information on societal issues such as charitable giving and pro-environmental behaviour Considers broader perspectives on economic psychology: life-span psychological development from childhood to old age Written for students of psychology, Economic Psychology reviews the most important information on contemporary economic psychology with a focus on individual and household economic decision making, ranging widely across financial matters such as borrowing and saving, and economic activities such as buying, trading, and working.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J N Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved, including the spread of inflation targeting and the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so.
Download or read book How to Define the Consumer Perceived Price Index written by Aleksandra Hałka and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Perception and the Formation of Inflation Expectations written by Torsten Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic trends, thereby providing new insights into the dynamics of inflation perception over time. Methodically, the IPI makes use of RollingLDA, a dynamic topic modeling approach refining the rather static original LDA to allow for changes in the model's structure over time. We then use time series for the overall inflation perception indicator as well as for specific topics to analyze time-varying correlations with time series for inflation expectations of firms and households. Our results reveal that the link between reporting about inflation and changes in inflation expectations is time-dependent. During periods of intensive newspaper coverage of inflation developments, a correlation with inflation expectations emerges that does not exist at other times. Such correlations are evident after the introduction of the euro, during the financial crisis and during the recent energy price shock.
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Download or read book Inflation written by William A. Gale and published by Oelgeschlager. This book was released on 1981 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Real Feel Inflation written by Michael Ashton and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The state of inflation expectations is generally supposed to influence actual inflation and therefore policymaker actions to maintain price stability. However, the methods usually employed to evaluate inflation expectations are insufficient. Survey methods either record economists' forecasts of official CPI, or consumers' flailing attempts to calculate the weighted average price increase personally experienced in a consumption basket consisting of hundreds of items purchased at different intervals (and the latter survey results do not mesh with anecdotal evidence that most consumers believe the inflation they face is higher than the official CPI). In this paper, I propose functional forms for several adjustments that can be made to reconcile official price measurements with consumers' perceptions. These adjustments are corrections for cognitive biases related to loss aversion and mental accounting. I identify several other biases that may be candidates for research into additional adjustments.
Download or read book Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations written by Ekaterina Peneva and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given the presumed role of inflation expectations in influencing actual inflation, it is important to understand the implications of the survey expectations and whether differences from official estimates contain an important signal.
