Download or read book Patterns of Wildfire Risk in the United States from Systemic Operational Risk Assessments written by Erin Kathleen Noonan-Wright and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the turn of the 21st century, the complexity and costs of wildfires have increased substantially. There is a need to evaluate entrenched fire management practices that encourage status quo decision making to suppress fires. Data stored in mandated reporting systems collected during wildfires may provide a perspective on fire management decision-making needed to change wildfire governance structures. The Relative Risk Assessment (RRA) resides within a federally mandated workflow process necessary for all longer duration federal wildfires since 2010. Land managers rate hazard, probability and values at risk as high, moderate or low throughout the course of an incident to define wildfire risk as a precursor to strategy. 5,087 published risk assessments were evaluated to provide a snapshot of the how land managers characterize risk from every geographic area (GA) in the United States. Results suggest that most GAs have a tendency to select moderate relative risk; however, two unique regions warranted greater inspection. The Northwest utilizes high risk more than any other geographic area; and the Southwest opts for low risk. Following a mixed method explanatory research design, these GAs became the basis for exploring factors influencing high and low risk by coding qualitative text belonging to the RRA. Investigation of a 20% sample of wildfires from these regions provided finer specificity of the values at risk, hazard, and probability concerns emerging during wildfires. Results suggest that climate plays a pivotal role to lessen the impact of the fire environment in the Southwest and generally increases the severity of the fire environment in the Northwest. When risk is low, land managers exercised greater decision space by using a variety of strategies. High risk constrains decision space and managers opt for suppression strategies. Subsequently, the Southwest is poised to benefit from favorable climate to use more fire and there is mounting evidence that a patchwork of historical wild and prescribed fires are leading to greater decision space for the management of current wildfires by serving as barriers to fire spread. However, suppression strategies were the most common for both GAs suggesting challenges remain for the use of fire to achieve resource objectives.
Download or read book Wildland Fires written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Wildfire Hazards Risks and Disasters written by Douglas Paton and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than 90% of wildfires are caused by human activity, but other causes include lighting, drought, wind and changing weather conditions, underground coal fires, and even volcanic activity. Wildfire Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, one of nine volumes in the Elsevier Hazards and Disasters series, provides a close and detailed examination of wildfires and measures for more thorough and accurate monitoring, prediction, preparedness, and prevention. It takes a geo-scientific and environmental approach to the topic while also discussing the impacts of human-induced causes such as deforestation, debris burning and arson—underscoring the multi-disciplinary nature of the topic. It presents several international case studies that discuss the historical, social, cultural and ecological aspects of wildfire risk management in countries with a long history of dealing with this hazard (e.g., USA, Australia) and in countries (e.g., Taiwan) where wildfire hazards represent a new and growing threat to the social and ecological landscape. Puts the contributions of environmental scientists, social scientists, climatologists, and geoscientists at your fingertips Arms you with the latest research on causality, social and societal impacts, economic impacts, and the multi-dimensional nature of wildfire mitigation, preparedness, and recovery Features a broad range of tables, figures, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs to aid in the retention of key concepts Discusses steps for prevention and mitigation of wildfires, one of the most expensive and complex geo-hazards in the world.
Download or read book Wildfire Risk Assessment Guide for Homeowners in the Southern United States written by Alan J. Long and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Wildfire Risk and Hazard written by U.s. Department of Agriculture and published by Createspace Independent Pub. This book was released on 2012-10-19 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews have been conducted by Federal oversight agencies and blue ribbon panels to identify causal factors of the unprecedented fire suppression costs and to suggest possible modifications to Federal fire management policy and strategies (USDOI, USDA 2004; USDAOIG 2006; GAO 2007, 2009). Agency and panel member reviews have found that Federal agencies with wildland fire responsibilities are not able to quantify the value of fire management activities in terms of reducing wildfire risk to social, economic, and ecological values. In response, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council's (WFLC) monitoring strategy asked: What are the trends and changes in fire hazard on Federal lands? Fire risk assessment requires an understanding of the likelihood of wildfire by intensity level and the potential beneficial and negative effects to valued resources from fire at different intensity levels. This monitoring study was conducted to meet three broad goals: (1) address the WFLC monitoring question regarding fire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) respond to critiques by Office of Management and Budget, General Accounting Office, and Congress that call for risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The results of this monitoring study are useful for project planning to quantify the potential effects of proposed actions in terms of reducing risk to specific resources of concern. Developing decision support tools that utilize an appropriate risk management framework would address many of the issues identified within government oversight reports. Specifically, the Office of Inspector General (USDAOIG 2006) reviewed USDA Forest Service (FS) large fire costs and directed that the “FS must determine what types of data it needs to track in order to evaluate its cost effectiveness in relationship to its accomplishments. At a minimum, FS needs to quantify and track the number and type of isolated residences and other privately owned structures affected by the fire, the number and type of natural/cultural resources threatened, and the communities and critical infrastructure placed at risk.” The application of fire risk and fire hazard analyses has been demonstrated at the watershed and National Forest scales (Ager and others 2007). There, specific details regarding probabilities of fire and fire intensity are linked with specific resource benefit and loss functions (Ager and others 2007). Expanding these detailed analyses to regional and national scales to provide consistent risk assessment processes is complicated by the required data specificity and difficulty in developing loss-benefit functions for the range of human and ecological values. The research effort described in this report is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at the national scale. The approach uses a quantitative risk framework that approximates expected losses and benefits from wildfire to highly valued resources (HVR). The information gathered in this study can be summarized in tabular and map formats at many different scales using administrative boundaries or delineations of HVR such as built structure density. The overall purpose of the analysis is to provide a base line of current conditions for monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time. Future analyses would be used to determine trends and changes in response to fuel reduction investments, climate shifts, and natural disturbance events (e.g., bark beetles) between the timeframes analyzed. Monitoring data could be used to address national and regional questions regarding changes in fire risk and hazard as a result of investment strategies or changing conditions.
Download or read book Wildfire Risk written by Wade E. Professor Martin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-09-30 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The continuing encroachment of human settlements into fire-prone areas and extreme fire seasons in recent years make it urgent that we better understand both the physical and human dimensions of managing the risk from wildfire. Wildfire Risk follows from our awareness that increasing public knowledge about wildfire hazard does not necessarily lead to appropriate risk reduction behavior. Drawing heavily upon health and risk communication, and risk modeling, the authors advance our understanding of how individuals and communities respond to wildfire hazard. They present results of original research on the social, economic, and psychological factors in responses to risk, discuss how outreach and education can influence behavior, and consider differences among ethnic/racial groups and between genders with regard to values, views, and attitudes about wildfire risk. They explore the role of public participation in risk assessment and mitigation, as well as in planning for evacuation and recovery after fire. Wildfire Risk concludes with a dedicated section on risk-modeling, with perspectives from decision sciences, geography, operations research, psychology, experimental economics, and other social sciences.
Download or read book Accounting for Emerging Wildfire Trends in Wildfire Risk Assessments a Case Study in Kern County written by Montiel Roberto Ayala and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over recent decades, the wildland fire environment across California has been altered by several factors, including shifting climate, extended fire seasons, increased human ignitions, frequent and prolonged drought, human settlement patterns, Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) development, legacies of fire exclusion, and insect and disease outbreaks. Contemporary increases in the frequency, extent, and severity of wildfires have emphasized the need for communities to adequately prepare and plan for the increasing risk of large, high-severity fires. Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) are an effective tool to mitigate fire risk. However, wildfire risk assessments utilized in CWPPs often consider fire history in its entirety, thereby missing the opportunity to include contemporary trends into their assessments. Here, novel spatiotemporal trends are elucidated by utilizing ArcGIS space time pattern mining tools. Findings from the analysis suggest that supplementing the wildfire risk assessment with spatiotemporal analysis can enhance the functionality of a CWPP as a decision support tool.
Download or read book Wildfire Risk and Hazard written by United States Department of Agriculture and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The research effort described in this report is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how fire likelihood and fire intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at the national scale. The approach uses a quantitative risk framework that approximates expected losses and benefits to highly valued resources from wildfire. Specifically, burn probabilities and intensities are estimated with a fire simulation model and are coupled with spatially explicit data on human and ecological values and fire-effects response functions to estimate the percent loss or benefit. This report describes the main components of the risk framework, including the burn probability models, highly valued resource data, and development of response functions, and illustrates the application to the State of Oregon. The State of Oregon was selected for prototype due to the wide range of variability in ecoregions represented in the state. All of the highly valued resource themes were represented in the mix of developed and natural resources present in the state.
Download or read book Wildfire Risk Assessment for a Municipal Watershed in Western Oregon USA written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the western United States, climate change is projected to lead to significant changes in regional wildfire regimes. Historically, forests west of the Cascade crest in Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have been characterized by low-frequency wildfire events, but climate change projections indicate that wildfire could become a more common disturbance, altering ecological processes and impairing ecosystem services like surface water quality and quantity. Wildfire risk assessments based on simulation models have been used in high frequency fire regimes to evaluate contemporary and future risk, but present unique challenges in westside forests because characteristic low annual burn probabilities result in determinations of low risk. In this thesis, I evaluated wildfire hazard in the Clackamas River watershed (Clackamas), a municipal watershed in western Oregon, under contemporary and projected mid-century climate conditions using the large fire simulator, FSim. In Chapter One, I modeled four climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under RCP 8.5. Results demonstrated that climate change will likely lead to significant changes in fire size, frequency, and fire season length, but a wide range of future conditions is possible. In Chapter Two, I explored the challenges to communicating risk from low probability, h igh consequence events and presented a framework for evaluating the impact of climate change on surprising, impactful wildfires. Results demonstrated the plausibility of surprising wildfires under contemporary conditions, and showed that surprising wildfires will be increasingly plausible under hotter and drier conditions. The modeled changes in westside fire regimes indicate that historic and contemporary fire regime characteristics are not a complete guide for future disturbance regimes. The combination of probabilistic and surprise fire analysis demonstrated the need for robust risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the face of a range of plausible futures.
Download or read book Wildfires in the Northeastern United States written by Daniel R. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is one of the most complex and challenging issues facing the world today. A changing climate will affect humankind in many ways and alter our physical environment, presenting ethical challenges in how we respond. The impact of climate change will likely be exacerbated in heavily populated regions of the planet, such as the Northeastern United States (NEUS). The NEUS is comprised of complex, sprawling urban centers and rural regions, both of which are vital to the economic and cultural character of the region. Furthermore, both urban and rural areas in the NEUS contain communities that have been historically susceptible to climate change (Horton et al. 2014). Over the past 120 years, average temperatures have increased by 2°F, precipitation has increased by 10%, and sea levels have also risen (Kunkel 2013). One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist (Scholze et al. 2006; Westerling et al. 2006), indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The NEUS has been home to some of the most infamous and largest historic "megafires" in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947 (Irland 2013). Although return intervals in most areas of the NEUS are high (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region (Carlson 2013). Therefore, predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability to large wildfires in the NEUS is economically and culturally relevant. However, predicting fire occurrence is not a simple task due to the nature of wildfire activity in the NEUS. While in most regions of the world, natural factors such as lightning are the driving cause of wildfires, it has been estimated that the vast majority (>99%) of wildfires in the NEUS are caused by anthropogenic activity and not natural causes (Pyne 1982). Consequently, only studying data associated with fire occurrence (i.e. area burned, number of fires) is likely inadequate for the investigation the region's fire risk over time. Furthermore, little is known about how the direct (temperature and precipitation trends) and indirect (ecosystem-wide species distribution) effects of climate change will impact fire risk in the NEUS under future climate scenarios. Fully understanding the natural mechanisms that control fire risk and occurrence requires continuous records of past fires and climatic variability on centennial to millennial timescales. However, historical fire records in the NEUS are temporally limited, and do not provide an adequate analysis of the impacts of regional wildfire regimes, prior to human disturbance and anthropogenic climate change. We find that regional climatic fire risk for the NEUS can be estimated most accurately using the Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) from 20th century historical meteorological records from various stations located throughout the region. Regional fire risk is then estimated through 2100 AD, using the KBDI and dynamically downscaled regional climate models from CMIP5 climate models. Under RCP 8.5, average KBDI and max yearly KBDI is shown to increase by 300% and 500%, respectively, in an exponential trend. Under RCP 4.5, KBDI is also expected to increase through 2100 AD to a lesser extent. Interestingly, these increases in regional fire risk are present regardless of increases in precipitation, indicating that future fire risk in the NEUS is driven largely by changes in temperature as opposed to precipitation. In order to investigate long-term regional wildfire activity over the past millennium, we examine PAHs and macrocharcoal from a varved sedimentary record from Basin Pond, Fayette, Maine (USA). We find elevated concentrations of the PAH retene were found to be highly correlated with known large-scale regional wildfire events that occurred in 1761-1762, 1825, and 1947 (A.D.). To distinguish between biomass burning and anthropogenic combustion, we examined the ratio of the PAHs retene and chrysene. The new Basin Pond PAH records, along with a local signal of fire occurrence from charcoal analysis, offers the prospect of using this multi-proxy approach as a method for examining wildfire frequency at the local and regional scale in the NEUS. Finally, we report seasonally resolved measurements of brGDGT production in the water column, in catchment soils, and in a sediment core from Basin Pond. We utilize these observations to help interpret a Basin Pond brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction spanning the past 900 years. This record exbibits similar trends to a pollen record from the same site and also to regional and global syntheses of terrestrial temperatures over the last millennium. However, the Basin Pond temperature record shows higher-frequency variability than has previously been captured by such an archive in the NEUS, potentially attributed to large scale atmospheric patterns. These new records of temperature variability and wildfire activity, when compared to regional hydroclimate records, shed insight into pre-historic wildfire risk in the NEUS.
Download or read book Wildfire Risk Assessment and Wildfire Simulation in Southeastern United States Mountainous Areas written by Jonnathan B. Owens and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM) encompasses 520,191 acres (210,521 ha) of protected forest located along the North Carolina -Tennessee border in the southeastern United States. The Park is 95% forested and contains over 100 different species of trees which constitute the most extensive collection of virgin hardwood forest in the eastern United States. It is one of the most visited National Parks in the U.S. with over 9 million visitors annually. From 1942 to 2009 there were 795 unintentional, reported fires within the Park. Even with the significant amount of wildfires in GRSM and the Southern Appalachian Mountains, research concerning wildfire risk and behavior in these areas is limited. For this thesis, a wildfire risk assessment was conducted for the Park and, for areas found to be at the highest risk, potential wildfire behavior was modeled using the FARSITE fire area simulator software. Wildfire risk was assessed using spatial and statistical analysis of historic wildfire locations relative to common variables generally found to be influential in wildfire ignition: elevation, aspect, slope, vegetation type, and distance to human structures. Wildfire risk was found to be highest in the northwestern and southwestern portions of the Park with lower risk in the eastern portion due to higher elevations and their associated vegetation types. Wildfire modeling showed that fires within the highest risk areas produced relatively lower rates of fire spread (relative to fires in the Western U.S.) and that vegetation type, wind speed, and wind direction appear to be the key factors influencing fire spread. Wildfire simulations also revealed that many natural barriers located in the Park may inhibit potential fire growth.
Download or read book A Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework for Land and Resource Management written by Joe H. Scott and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and illustrates a process for implementing the framework. Two key strengths of the framework are its flexibility-- allowing for a multitude of data sources, modeling techniques, and approaches to measuring risk--and its scalability, with potential application for project, forest, regional, and national planning. The specific risk assessment process we introduce is premised on three modeling approaches to characterize wildfire likelihood and intensity, fire effects, and the relative importance of highly valued resources and assets that could be impacted by wildfire. The spatial scope of the process is landscape-scale, and the temporal scope is short-term (that is, the temporal dynamics of succession and disturbance are not simulated). We highlight key information needs, provide guidance for use of fire simulation models and risk geo-processing tools, and demonstrate recent applications of the framework across planning scales. The aim of this report is to provide fire and land managers with a helpful set of guiding principles and tools for assessing and mitigating wildfire risk.
Download or read book Federal Wildland Fire Management written by DIANE Publishing Company and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1997-08 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing wildland fire in the U.S. is a challenge increasing in complexity & magnitude. The goals & actions presented in this report encourage a proactive approach to wildland fire to reduce its threat. Five major topic areas on the subject are addressed: the role of wildland fire in resource management; the use of wildland fire; preparedness & suppression; wildland/urban interface protection; & coordinated program management. Also presented are the guiding principle that are fundamental to wildland fire management & recommendations for fire management policies. Photos, graphs, & references.
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Download or read book Managing Climate Risk in the U S Financial System written by Leonardo Martinez-Diaz and published by U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission . This book was released on 2020-09-09 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742
Download or read book Guide for All Hazard Emergency Operations Planning written by Kay C. Goss and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1998-05 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meant to aid State & local emergency managers in their efforts to develop & maintain a viable all-hazard emergency operations plan. This guide clarifies the preparedness, response, & short-term recovery planning elements that warrant inclusion in emergency operations plans. It offers the best judgment & recommendations on how to deal with the entire planning process -- from forming a planning team to writing the plan. Specific topics of discussion include: preliminary considerations, the planning process, emergency operations plan format, basic plan content, functional annex content, hazard-unique planning, & linking Federal & State operations.
Download or read book Wildland Fire Incident Management Field Guide written by NWCG and published by NWCG Training Branch. This book was released on 2014-06-06 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wildland Fire Incident Management Field Guide is a revision of what used to be called the Fireline Handbook, PMS 410-1. This guide has been renamed because, over time, the original purpose of the Fireline Handbook had been replaced by the Incident Response Pocket Guide, PMS 461. As a result, this new guide is aimed at a different audience, and it was felt a new name was in order.
