Download or read book Overconfidence and War written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Download or read book Overconfident written by Roberta Gatti and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-10-06 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region’s economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region’s public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region’s health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems.

Download or read book Perfectly Confident written by Don A. Moore and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2020-05-26 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Download or read book How Confidence Works written by Ian Robertson and published by Random House. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Brilliant ... it will change how you think about confidence.' Johann Hari 'Important for everyone but crucial for women.' Mary Robinson 'Interesting and important.' Steven Pinker __________ Why do boys instinctively bullshit more than girls? How do economic recessions shape a generation's confidence? Can we have too much confidence and, if so, what are the consequences? Imagine we could discover something that could make us richer, healthier, longer-living, smarter, kinder, happier, more motivated and more innovative. Ridiculous, you might say... What is this elixir? Confidence. If you have it, it can empower you to reach heights you never thought possible. But if you don't, it can have a devastating effect on your future. Confidence lies at the core of what makes things happen. Exploring the science and neuroscience behind confidence that has emerged over the last decade, clinical psychologist and neuroscientist Professor Ian Robertson tells us how confidence plays out in our minds, our brains and indeed our bodies. He explains where it comes from and how it spreads - with extraordinary economic and political consequences. And why it's not necessarily something you are born with, but something that can be learned.

Download or read book Overconfidence in SMEs written by Anna Invernizzi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-19 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a review of the role of overconfidence in small firms and explores how biased judgment and decision-making can affect business performance. Whilst the overconfidence construct has been studied in detail, there are no systematic reviews of its role in SMEs as of yet. Examining the decisions made by entrepreneurs, this study offers clear solutions on how to improve business accuracy, reduce disadvantageous investments and prevent bankruptcy. Providing an empirical analysis of overconfidence in the sport industry, this new book will not only be of interest to academics of entrepreneurship and small enterprises, but also to sport managers.

Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence Different Thinking through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.

Download or read book Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Imran Demir and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets written by A. Szyszka and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-09-04 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral Finance helps investors understand unusual asset prices and empirical observations originating out of capital markets. At its core, this field of study aids investors in navigating complex psychological trappings in market behavior and making smarter investment decisions. Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets reveals the main foundations underpinning neoclassical capital market and asset pricing theory, as filtered through the lens of behavioral finance. Szyszka presents and classifies many of the dynamic arguments being made in the current literature on the topic through the use of a new, ground-breaking methodology termed: the General Behavioral Asset Pricing Model (GBM). GBM describes how asset prices are influenced by various behavioral heuristics and how these prices deviate from fundamental values due to irrational behavior on the part of investors. The connection between psychological factors responsible for irrational behavior and market pricing anomalies is featured extensively throughout the text. Alternative explanations for various theoretical and empirical market puzzles - such as the 2008 U.S. financial crisis - are also discussed in a convincing and interesting manner. The book also provides interesting insights into behavioral aspects of corporate finance.

Download or read book The Role of Overconfidence Within Financial Markets and Firms written by Anand Mohan Goel and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book It s Only the Himalayas written by S. Bedford and published by Brindle and Glass. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A laugh-out-loud travel memoir that reveals backpacking’s awkward side. Sue, a disenchanted waitress, embarks upon a year-long quest around the world with her friend, Sara—who’s exasperatingly perfect. Expecting a whimsical jaunt of self-discovery, Sue instead encounters an absurd series of misadventures that render her embarrassed, terrified, and queasy (and in a lot of trouble with Philippine Airlines). Whether she’s fleeing from ravenous lions, dancing amid smoking skulls, trekking Annapurna underprepared, or (accidentally) drugging an Englishman, Sue’s quick-witted, self-deprecating narrative might just inspire you to take your own chaotic adventure.

Download or read book Uncaring written by Robert Pearl and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doctors are taught how to cure people. But they don’t always know how to care for them. Hardly anyone is happy with American healthcare these days. Patients are getting sicker and going bankrupt from medical bills. Doctors are burning out and making dangerous mistakes. Both parties blame our nation’s outdated and dysfunctional healthcare system. But that’s only part of the problem. In this important and timely book, Dr. Robert Pearl shines a light on the unseen and often toxic culture of medicine. Today’s physicians have a surprising disdain for technology, an unhealthy obsession with status, and an increasingly complicated relationship with their patients. All of this can be traced back to their earliest experiences in medical school, where doctors inherit a set of norms, beliefs, and expectations that shape almost every decision they make, with profound consequences for the rest of us. Uncaring draws an original and revealing portrait of what it’s actually like to be a doctor. It illuminates the complex and intimidating world of medicine for readers, and in the end offers a clear plan to save American healthcare.

Download or read book The Routledge Companion to Financial Services Marketing written by Tina Harrison and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in Financial Services Marketing has grown hugely over the last few decades, particularly since the financial crisis, which scarred the industry and its relationship with customers. It reflects the importance of the financial services industry to the economies of every nation and the realisation that the consumption and marketing of financial services differs from that of tangible goods and indeed many other intangible services. This book is therefore a timely and much needed comprehensive compendium that reflects the development and maturation of the research domain, and pulls together, in a single volume, the current state of thinking and debate. The events associated with the financial crisis have highlighted that there is a need for banks and other financial institutions to understand how to rebuild trust and confidence, improve relationships and derive value from the marketing process. Edited by an international team of experts, this book will provide the latest thinking on how to manage such challenges and will be vital reading for students and lecturers in financial services marketing, policy makers and practitioners.

Download or read book Self knowledge for Humans written by Quassim Cassam and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Humans are not model epistemic citizens. Our reasoning can be careless, our beliefs eccentric, and our desires irrational. Quassim Cassam develops a new account of self-knowledge which recognises this feature of human life. He argues that self-knowledge is a genuine cognitive achievement, and that self-ignorance is almost always on the cards.

Download or read book Psychology and Athletics written by Coleman Roberts Griffith and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Your Everyday Guide To Behavioural Finance written by Prakash Praharaj and published by Hay House, Inc. This book was released on 2022-11-08 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the start of the 20th century, India’s GDP has been growing at an average of 6-7 per cent and the World Bank predicts India to become one of the fastest growing major economies in the world. The lack of social security benefits for the common citizen coupled with favourable factors like structural reforms, young population, high rates of savings and consumption, and waves of digitalisation and financialisation are driving both domestic and global investors to the Indian capital market in pursuit of higher risk-adjusted return. But with the increasing globalisation and rising volatility, the common investors often fall prey to their personal biases (fear, greed, overconfidence, loss aversion, etc.). This behaviour is at variance with traditional finance which holds that the investors are rational and markets are efficient. The overload of investment tips flowing from television, print, social media, conferences, and investment gurus further adds to investor confusion. Prakash Praharaj and Nirakar Pradhan, two well-known investment advisors, have come together to document their decades-long learnings and practical experience into a very useful, comprehensive volume. Your Everyday Guide to Behavioural Finance sheds light on the theory of behavioural finance and nineteen dominant behavioural biases in an accessible and easy-to-understand manner. It offers a framework for identifying, assessing, and managing one’s own behavioural traits (biases) to enhance investment success. The book also recommends Behaviourally Modified Asset Allocation (BMAA), a tool to synchronise the investment portfolio with the life cycle of the investors. So, whether you are a financial advisor, portfolio manager, or an individual investor yourself, Your Everyday Guide to Behavioural Finance will provide you with an integrated perspective to craft efficient and effective investment strategies irrespective of external market noises.

Download or read book Back to Normal written by Enrico Gnaulati, PhD and published by Beacon Press. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A veteran clinical psychologist exposes why doctors, teachers, and parents incorrectly diagnose healthy American children with serious psychiatric conditions. In recent years there has been an alarming rise in the number of American children and youth assigned a mental health diagnosis. Current data from the Centers for Disease Control reveal a 41 percent increase in rates of ADHD diagnoses over the past decade and a forty-fold spike in bipolar disorder diagnoses. Similarly, diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder, once considered, has increased by 78 percent since 2002. Dr. Enrico Gnaulati, a clinical psychologist specializing in childhood and adolescent therapy and assessment, has witnessed firsthand the push to diagnose these disorders in youngsters. Drawing both on his own clinical experience and on cutting-edge research, with Back to Normal he has written the definitive account of why our kids are being dramatically overdiagnosed—and how parents and professionals can distinguish between true psychiatric disorders and normal childhood reactions to stressful life situations. Gnaulati begins with the complex web of factors that have led to our current crisis. These include questionable education and training practices that cloud mental health professionals’ ability to distinguish normal from abnormal behavior in children, monetary incentives favoring prescriptions, check-list diagnosing, and high-stakes testing in schools. We’ve also developed an increasingly casual attitude about labeling kids and putting them on psychiatric drugs. So how do we differentiate between a child with, say, Asperger’s syndrome and a child who is simply introverted, brainy, and single-minded? As Gnaulati notes, many of the symptoms associated with these disorders are similar to everyday childhood behaviors. In the second half of the book Gnaulati tells detailed stories of wrongly diagnosed kids, providing parents and others with information about the developmental, temperamental, and environmentally driven symptoms that to a casual or untrained eye can mimic a psychiatric disorder. These stories also reveal how nonmedical interventions, whether in the therapist’s office or through changes made at home, can help children. Back to Normal reminds us of the normalcy of children’s seemingly abnormal behavior. It will give parents of struggling children hope, perspective, and direction. And it will make everyone who deals with children question the changes in our society that have contributed to the astonishing increase in childhood psychiatric diagnoses.

Download or read book Cognitive Errors and Diagnostic Mistakes written by Jonathan Howard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-28 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This case-based book illustrates and explores common cognitive biases and their consequences in the practice of medicine. The book begins with an introduction that explains the concept of cognitive errors and their importance in clinical medicine and current controversies within healthcare. The core of the book features chapters dedicated to particular cognitive biases; cases are presented and followed by a discussion of the clinician's rationale and an overview of the particular cognitive bias. Engaging and easy to read, this text provides strategies on minimizing cognitive errors in various medical and professional settings.