Download or read book Option Pricing and Foreign Investment Under Political Risk written by Enrico C. Perotti and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyses foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order to attract more capital. We characterize the evolution of confidence, investment, and asset prices over time, as well as perceived policy risk. Quite generally, perceived risk abates as current policy is maintained, leading to a gradual appreciation of asset prices and a gradual decrease in their conditional variance. The approach thus provides a measure of the evolution over time of perceived political risk from market prices. We next compute option prices under the process generated by the model's hazard rate of policy reversal plus an additional market risk component. We show that both the time series and the term structure of conditional volatility in general is downward sloping and its overall level falls steadily over time, although it may exhibit initially a hump shape in the case of very low initial reputation. Another testable implication is that in price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices will exceed actual volatility. Over time, and in the absence of a reversal, this wedge progressively disappears. This may be viewed as the volatility analogue of the quot;peso premiumquot; for assets subject to large, infrequent price drops.
Download or read book Option Pricing and Foreign Investment Under Political Risk written by Joseph A. Cherian and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset Pricing Under Political Risk written by Joseph Cherian and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a theoretical framework to analyse foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy, and tests it on a time series of option prices written on Hang Seng stocks. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government. We characterize the resulting evolution of confidence over time, and generate testable implications for the evolution over time of option prices written on invested assets. The model predicts that uncertainty over treatment of foreign capital will lead initially to a hump-shaped path for implied volatility. However, over time perceived political risk abates as learning over long term government policy progresses. An implication is that measured implied volatility exceeds actual volatility because of a political uncertainty component. In the absence of a policy reversal, this wedge progressively disappears. We test this view using Hong Kong medium term option prices. We are able to identify a long term downward trend in implied volatility which is not explained by ex post historical volatility or other common empirical regularities. The evidence is consistent with a progressive reduction in the perceived political risk of investing in Hong Kong.
Download or read book Option Princing and Foreign Investment Under Political Risk written by Joseph Cherian and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Option Valuation of Foreign Direct Investment Using an Event Tree Analysis of Political Risk written by John Gregory Powell and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Protecting Foreign Investment Under International Law written by Paul E. Comeaux and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While conditions for foreign investors are generally safer in today's global economy than in previous decades, the issues to consider with regard to political risk go far beyond the obvious. Investors must continue to exercise caution in developing countries or under governments with a history of instability, & even the "safest" countries have certain risks associated with them. The only text available of its kind, this authoritative volume discusses the political risk of expropriation, both direct & indirect, & the various protections that are available under international law to minimize these risks. Plus, detailed references, useful appendices & contact information are provided. Written from the perspective of the practitioner, this text provides: * A review & explanation of the international law regarding political risk * Methods for the investor to reduce exposure to political risk through business structure, contract negotiation, & risk insurance * An explanation of the arbitral, judicial, & political options open to the investor following a taking of the investor's property Topics Covered Include: * International law regarding expropriation * Treaty provisions regarding protection of investment * Contracts with host states * Procuring investment insurance * Diplomacy between the host state & the investor's home state.
Download or read book International Investment Political Risk and Dispute Resolution written by Noah Rubins and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A vital text for practitioners and academics this book integrates the international law of political risk with the domestic, political, and economic considerations central to assessing risk. It offers a detailed analysis of pre-investment decisions that can reduce political risk, treaties protecting investment, and international dispute resolution.
Download or read book Politics and International Investment written by Witold J. Henisz and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Henisz (management, the Wharton School, U. of Pennsylvania) offers a model of political and regulatory risk assessment for companies investing in the developing world. He argues that most of the problems with conventional political risk measures ultimately stem from their lack of focus on the political systems that they measure. He proposes the adoption of a measure that examines the feasibility of policy change. He tests the theoretical predictions offered by his measure by examining the use of local partners as a political risk mitigation mechanism. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book Risk and Foreign Direct Investment written by C. White and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-01-25 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Incorporating an accurate measure of risk is important to the appraisal of an international investment. This book examines and recommends how decisions on international investment projects are made. Critiquing and integrating existing theory, it shows how risk can be incorporated into the present value formula produce a clear decision rule.
Download or read book Measuring Political Risk written by Charlotte H. Brink and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a fresh, transparent approach encompassing new material, this invigorating volume measures political risk - for instance the risk that foreign investment might face in any country. It also demonstrates how progress or regress made in good governance initiatives as conditionalities to aid can be assessed. Governments can monitor their own policy environment(s), and take remedial action if necessary. The methodology allows for measurement of previously un-quantified 'soft' factors that add to the risks foreign investors might face, demonstrating why these factors are of importance to both risk assertive and risk averse investors. Features include: - 103 contextualized, measurable risk factors and their 411 risk factor indicators. - Guidelines to using these factors in order to perform generic macro analyses, or micro, client/project/industry-specific analyses. - Explanation of the methodology with which to comprehensively measure the probability of risk occurring in any macro or micro investment climate.
Download or read book Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019 2020 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-07-06 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019-2020 provides novel analytical insights, empirical evidence, and actionable recommendations for governments seeking to enhance investor confidence in times of uncertainty. The report's findings and policy recommendations are organized around "3 ICs" - they provide guidance to governments on how to increase investments' contributions to their country's development, enhance investor confidence, and foster their economies' investment competitiveness. The report presents results of a new survey of more than 2,400 business executives representing FDI in 10 large developing countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. The results show that over half of surveyed foreign businesses have already been adversely affected by policy uncertainty, experiencing a decrease in employment, firm productivity, or investment. Foreign investors report that supporting political environments, stable macroeconomic conditions, and conducive regulatory regimes are their top three investment decision factors. Moreover, the report's new global database of regulatory risk shows that predictability and transparency increase investor confidence and FDI flows. The report also assesses the impact of FD! on poverty, inequality, employment, and firm performance using evidence from various countries. It shows that FDI in developing countries yields benefits to their firms and citizens-including more and better-paid jobs-but governments need to be vigilant about possible adverse consequences on income distribution. The report is organized in S chapters: Chapter 1 presents the results of the foreign investor survey. Chapter 2 explores the differential performance and development impact of greenfield FDI, local firms acquired by multinational corporations {i.e. brownfield FDI), and domestically-owned firms using evidence from six countries. Chapter 3 assesses the impact of FDI on poverty, inequality, employment and wages, using case study evidence from Ethiopia, Turkey and Vietnam. Chapter 4 presents a new framework to measure FDI regulatory risk that is linked to specific legal and regulatory measures. Chapter S focuses on factors for increasing the effectiveness of investment promotion agencies.
Download or read book International Political Risk Management written by Theodore H. Moran and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title examines the transformations in the political risk.
Download or read book The Impact of Political Risk on the Volatility of Stock Returns the Case of Canada written by Cosset, Jean-Claude and published by Québec : Faculté des sciences de l'administration de l'Université Laval, Direction de la recherche. This book was released on 2003 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Country Risk Assessment written by Michel Henry Bouchet and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-10-31 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure. - Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment. - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy. - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk. - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers. - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises. - Includes practical examples and case studies. - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.
Download or read book International Investment Protection of Global Banking and Finance written by Arif H. Ali and published by Kluwer Law International B.V.. This book was released on 2021-09-14 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global banking and finance is a complex and specialized field with sector-specific investment forms, subject to distinctive legal and regulatory frameworks and unique types of political risk. This comprehensive guide to international investment protection in the finance and banking sector, written by acknowledged experts in the field of investor-State arbitration, provides the first in-depth discussion of how international investment law applies to investors and investments in the sector. Featuring expert guidance on the key legal protections for cross-border banking and finance investments, with complete and up-to-date coverage of investor-State cases, the analysis crystallizes a set of field-specific legal principles for the sector. In particular, the authors address the following practical aspects of investment protection in the banking and finance sector: how sector-specific forms of investment, such as loans and derivatives, impact the dispute resolution process; types of political risk that cross-border investments in the sector are likely to encounter; distinctive adverse sovereign measures that underlie disputes in the sector, including those from sovereign debt defaults and banking sector bailouts; specific treaty provisions, such as jurisdictional carve-outs and targeted exclusions; remedies available for violations of international investment protections; how monetary damages may be assessed for injury to banking and finance sector investments; the scope of financial services chapters included in certain free trade agreements; the protections available under domestic foreign investment laws; and alternative sources of protection such as political risk insurance and investment contracts. International disputes practitioners and academics, in-house counsel in the finance and banking industries, and arbitrators addressing banking and finance disputes will welcome this book for its practical guidance. With strategies for investors as well as for sovereign States to navigate the intricacies of the investment protection system, the authors’ comprehensive analysis will help ensure appropriate international protection for banking and finance sector investments, both when establishing investments and when resolving disputes. The book lays the groundwork for the future consolidation of international investment protection as a critical tool to manage the political risk confronting global banking and finance.
Download or read book OECD Energy Investment Policy Review of Ukraine written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-15 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Review assesses Ukraine’s investment climate vis-à-vis the country’s energy sector reforms and discusses challenges and opportunities in this context. Capitalising on the OECD Policy Framework for Investment and other relevant instruments and guidance, the Review takes a broad approach to investment climate challenges facing Ukraine’s energy sector.
Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns Evidence from Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
