Download or read book Option Implied Variance Asymmetry and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Tao Huang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find a positive relationship between individual stocks' implied variance asymmetry, defined as the difference between upside and downside risk-neutral semivariances extracted from out-of-money options, and future stock returns. The high-minus-low hedge portfolio earns the excess return of 0.90% (0.67%) per month in equal-weighted (value-weighted) returns. We show that implied variance asymmetry provides a neat measure of risk-neutral skewness and outperforms the standard risk-neutral skewness in predicting the cross-section of future stock returns. Risk-based equilibrium asset pricing models can not explain such a positive relationship, which instead can be potentially explained by information asymmetry and informed trading.
Download or read book Option Implied Volatility Skewness and Kurtosis and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns written by Turan G. Bali and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns are related to both the systematic and unsystematic components of volatility, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are related to the cross section of expected stock returns after controlling for other variables known to be related to the cross section of expected stock returns or analyst forecast bias.
Download or read book Options Implied Variance and Future Stock Returns written by Hui Guo and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using options-implied variance, a forward-looking measure of conditional variance, we revisit the debate on the idiosyncratic risk-return relation. In both cross-sectional (for individual stocks) and time-series (for the market index) regressions, we find a negative relation between options-implied variance and future stock returns. Consistent with Miller's (1977) divergence of opinion hypothesis, the negative relation gets stronger (1) for stocks with more stringent short-sale constraints or (2) when shorting stocks becomes more difficult. Moreover, the negative correlation of realized idiosyncratic variance or analyst forecast dispersion with future stock returns mainly reflects their close correlation with our conditional idiosyncratic variance measure.
Download or read book Caught Up in the Higher Moments written by Ronald Jared DeLisle and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: This dissertation examines if information extracted from the options markets is priced in the cross-section of equity returns and whether or not this information is a systematic risk factor. Several versions of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model predict that changes in aggregate volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Literature confirms that changes in expected future market volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Several of these studies use the VIX Index as proxy for future market volatility, and suggest that it is a risk factor. However, prior studies do not test whether asymmetric volatility affects if firm sensitivity to changes in VIX is related to risk, or is just a characteristic uniformly affecting all firms. The first chapter of my dissertation examines the asymmetric relation of stock returns and changes in VIX. The study finds that sensitivity to VIX innovations affects returns when volatility is rising, but not when it is falling. When VIX rises this sensitivity is a priced risk factor, but when it falls there is a positive impact on all stocks irrespective of VIX loadings. The second essay of my dissertation uses the second, third, and fourth moments of the risk-neutral density extracted from options on the S & P 500 as the proxy for changes in the expected future market return distribution rather than just the VIX index. The VIX index, while easily obtained, contains limited information due to its construction. The risk-neutral moments map one-to-one to the real-world volatility smile from market options, and contain all the information in the cross-section of market option moneyness and provide a richer proxy for changes in expected future market return distribution. The analyses find that positive change in risk-neutral skewness is a risk-factor and that change in risk-neutral kurtosis is not. The evidence for change in risk-neutral volatility being a risk factor, however, is ambiguous.
Download or read book Option Implied Betas and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Richard D. F. Harris and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and a number of measures of option-implied beta. Using portfolio analysis, we show that the method proposed by Buss and Vilkov (2012) leads to a stronger relationship between implied beta and stock returns than other approaches. However, using the Fama and MacBeth (1973) cross-section regression methodology, we show that the relationship is not robust to the inclusion of other firm characteristics. We further show that a similar result holds for implied downside beta. We therefore conclude that there is no robust relation between option-implied beta and returns.
Download or read book Option Implied Equity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Te-Feng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using forward-looking information in the options market, we introduce a new method for better identifying systematic market risk as a predictor for the cross-section of stock returns. Empirical results show that there is a significantly positive relation between our option-implied beta and subsequent stock returns, in which a long-short portfolio formed on the option-implied beta generates an average monthly risk-adjusted return of 0.96%. In support of its economic significance, we further find that our option-implied beta significantly predicts the future realized betas and that the associated risk premium is a strong predictor of future market returns.
Download or read book Option Implied Liquidity and Stock Returns written by Minh Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines a market-wide liquidity measure based on the systematic deviations from Put-Call parity in the U.S. equity option markets. We show that this implied liquidity measure provides forward-looking information about market returns and significantly explains the cross-sectional variations of stock returns. We show that investing in the stocks with the largest exposure to the innovations in the implied liquidity and shorting the stocks with the smallest generate significant returns of about 7.3 percent per annum. The explanatory power of implied liquidity for the cross-sectional variations of stock returns remain robust after controlling for various liquidity influences, the short-selling constraints and the effects of information asymmetry.
Download or read book A Smiling Bear in the Equity Options Market and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Hye-hyun Park and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a measure for the convexity of an option-implied volatility curve, IV convexity, as a forward-looking measure of excess tail-risk contribution to the perceived variance of underlying equity returns. Using equity options data for individual U.S.-listed stocks during 2000-2013, we find that the average return differential between the lowest and highest IV convexity quintile portfolios exceeds 1% per month, which is both economically and statistically significant on a risk-adjusted basis. Our empirical findings indicate the contribution of informed options trading to price discovery in terms of the realization of tail-risk aversion in the stock market.
Download or read book The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options written by Byeong-Je An and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks with large increases in call implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have high future returns while stocks with large increases in put implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have low future returns. Sorting stocks ranked into decile portfolios by past call implied volatilities produces spreads in average returns of approximately 1% per month, and the return differences persist up to six months. The cross section of stock returns also predicts option-implied volatilities, with stocks with high past returns tending to have call and put option contracts which exhibit increases in implied volatility over the next month, but with decreasing realized volatility. These predictability patterns are consistent with rational models of informed trading.
Download or read book The Information Content in Implied Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Dean Diavatopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current literature is inconclusive as to whether idiosyncratic risk influences future stock returns and the direction of the impact. Prior studies are based on historical realized volatility. Implied volatilities from option prices represent the market's assessment of future risk and are likely a superior measure to historical realized volatility. We use implied idiosyncratic volatilities on firms with traded options to examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns. We find a strong positive link between implied idiosyncratic risk and future returns. After considering the impact of implied idiosyncratic volatility, historical realized idiosyncratic volatility is unimportant. This performance is strongly tied to small size and high book-to-market equity firms.
Download or read book Variance Asymmetry Managed Portfolios written by Xiaoxiao Tang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a forward-looking measure of the asymmetry in the variance of asset returns and introduce a way to estimate it from option prices. This measure is model free and it serves as a close approximation for the asset expected excess return. I provide an empirically supported sufficient condition under which the risk-neutral variance asymmetry ranks stocks based on their physical expected returns. Empirically, I find strong cross-sectional correlation between this measure and future stock returns. Variance asymmetry managed portfolios yield economically large average returns and Sharpe ratios. Crash risk and standard asset pricing factors do not explain this abnormal performance.
Download or read book Implied and Realized Volatility in the Cross Section of Equity Options written by Manuel Ammann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a complete sample of US equity options, we analyze patterns of implied volatility in the cross-section of equity options with respect to stock characteristics. We find that high-beta stocks, small stocks, stocks with a low-market-to-book ratio, and non-momentum stocks trade at higher implied volatilities after controlling for historical volatility. We find evidence that implied volatility overestimates realized volatility for low-beta stocks, small caps, low-market-to-book stocks, and stocks with no momentum and vice versa. However, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that implied volatility is an unbiased predictor of realized volatility in the cross section.
Download or read book Belief Heterogeneity in the Option Markets and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Paul Borochin and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard deviations of the volatility premium, of implied volatility innovations, and of the volatility term structure spread in equity options help explain the cross-section of one-month-ahead underlying stock returns. The explanatory power from standard deviations is robust to the levels of these three variables, volatility of volatility, firm characteristics, and common risk factor models. We find support for interpreting the standard deviations of these option-based measures as forward-looking proxies of heterogeneous beliefs. The negative relationship between our three measures and future underlying returns is consistent with the Miller (1977) overvaluation model which implies that divergence of investor opinions in the presence of short-sale constraints leads to lower expected returns.
Download or read book Differences in Options Investors Expectations and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Panayiotis C. Andreou and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide strong evidence that the dispersion of individual stock options trading volume across moneynesses (IDISP) contains valuable information about future stock returns. Stocks with high IDISP consistently underperform those with low IDISP by more than 1% per month. In line with the idea that IDISP reflects dispersion in investors' beliefs, we find that the negative IDISP-return relationship is particularly pronounced around earnings announcements, in high sentiment periods and among stocks that exhibit relatively high short-selling impediments. Moreover, the IDISP effect is highly persistent and robustly distinct from the effects of a large array of previously documented cross-sectional return predictors.
Download or read book Cross Sectional Stock Option Pricing and Factor Models of Returns written by Mihaela Serban and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the pricing of index and individual stock options consistent with a factor model of stock returns? To answer this question, we use returns and option prices for a cross-section of stocks and a market index to carry out an integrated estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility models with systematic factors and idiosyncratic return components. In particular, we estimate both the objective and risk neutral (RN) dynamics of the model using particle filter techniques. For a one-factor quot;market modelquot; of stock returns we find that 1) the market (Samp;P 500) betas of individual stocks are similar under the objective and RN measures, 2) there is a statistically and economically important common factor in the volatility of idiosyncratic returns, 3) the factor loadings of individual stocks on this common component of idiosyncratic volatility are also similar under the objective and RN measures, and 4) both market and common idiosyncratic volatility appear to be priced in option prices.
Download or read book Competition for Listings written by Thierry Foucault and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonparametric Option Implied Tail Risk and Market Returns written by Conall O'Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a non-parametric method based on a model-free formula to evaluate the tails of a risk-neutral distribution using the full cross-section of option prices at a fixed horizon. The method leads to the joint estimation of risk-neutral tail probabilities and tail expectations beyond the minimum and maximum strike prices. We confirm the accuracy of the risk-neutral tail measures using simulated data. We extract time series of left and right option implied tail risk measures from S&P 500 index options. We find the ratio of risk-neutral left tail conditional expectation to a physical measure of tail risk significantly predicts the equity risk premium at longer return horizons of six months to twelve months with a significant improvement in ex- planatory power when compared to using the physical tail risk measure alone. We also find that both the risk-neutral left and right tail conditional expectations significantly predict the one-month ahead variance risk premium.
