Download or read book Optimum Track Ship Routing OTSR Applications of the Tropical Cyclone Strike wind Probability Program written by K. Nuttall and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Optimum Track Ship Routing (OTSR) Applications of Strike Probability (OASP) system of computer programs is described. This system utilizes a method of forecasting the probabilities of encountering 30 kt tropical cyclone winds in the western North Pacific Ocean based on the tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam, and the statistical analysis of historical tropical cyclone forecast errors. By applying this method of forecasting tropical cyclone wind probabilities, incorporating ship track evaluation and route generation algorithms, and including interactive and remote display capabilities, the OTSR personnel at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, California, and other users are provided with a unique approach to display, evaluation, and routing of ships threatened by tropical cyclones. (Author).

Download or read book NAVENVPREDRSCHFAC Contractor Report CR written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Technical Abstract Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Optimum Track Ship Routing OTSR Applicaations of Strike Probability Users Manual written by Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Research Work in Tropical Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Network Shortest Path Application for Optimum Track Ship Routing written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) community routes ships for weather evasion using advanced meteorological modeling and satellite data, but lacks a tool to enable fewer ship routers to make better routing decisions faster. Limited resources and rising costs are affecting the frequency and duration of current naval operations. The Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, has ordered the community to find efficiencies and automation possibilities to meet lower manning levels, reduce waste, and increase savings. Outside of the Navy, Ocean Systems Incorporated in Alameda, California, developed the Ship Tracking and Routing System (STARS) software package to calculate optimum sea routes based on weather model data. However, METOC ship routers are reluctant to adopt this complex software. To help solve this problem, the author modeled Optimum Track Ship Routing (OTSR) for U.S. Navy warships using a network graph of the Western Pacific Ocean. A binary heap version of Dijkstra's algorithm determines the optimum route given model generated wind and seas input. To objectively assess the model, test cases using recent model data and historical case comparisons were run. The results of these tests show that the author has successfully devised a network ship routing model that solves optimal path problems using a modified version of Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm and a basic ship response function. The model avoids adverse weather and solves the least-time path to a destination. It calculates useful time, distance, and fuel consumption metrics to quantify routing decisions. The model also demonstrates that manual routing techniques involving numerous calculations and chart plotting can be automated and solutions generated in milliseconds. He has identified how the results could be used by ship routing personnel to assist in analyzing alternatives and aiding ship routing decisions.

Download or read book Seventh Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences of the American Meteorological Society November 2 6 1981 Monterey California written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Government Reports Annual Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 942 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sections 1-2. Keyword Index.--Section 3. Personal author index.--Section 4. Corporate author index.-- Section 5. Contract/grant number index, NTIS order/report number index 1-E.--Section 6. NTIS order/report number index F-Z.

Download or read book Shipboard Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System for the Western North Pacific Ocean written by Don Chin and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The shipboard Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System (TCASS) is described. TCASS is a set of microcomputer programs which displays and evaluates the tropical cyclone wind threat to a ship or unit. Tropical cyclone wind probability forecast methods for the western North Pacific Ocean, based on statistical analyses of historical tropical cyclone forecast errors, are used within TCASS. If the tropical cyclone wind threat exceeds a predefined threshold level, an alternative routing procedure is invoked to reduce the threat level. Applications of the software are provided, and examples of the resulting output are included. (Author).

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Sea state Probability Model Development and Application written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS (Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System). The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.

Download or read book Department of State Tropical Cyclone Strike Wind and Storm Surge Probability Warnings written by Science Applications, inc and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book Government Reports Announcements Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1981-03 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Water Resources Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Ship Avoidance Program TCSAP for the Western North Pacific Ocean written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Tropical Cyclone Ship Avoidance Program (TCSAP), which is designed to replace the Pacific Fleet's tropical cyclone danger area avoidance instruction, is described. The Pacific Fleet danger area was tested on 1982 tropical cyclone forecasts, and summary results of these tests are given. The effect of a pending change in the Pacific Fleet allowance of 136 n mi to 120 n mi for error was simulated; summary results are presented. A constant peripheral risk danger area formulation was devised and compared to the present danger area. This constant peripheral risk danger area, based on the probability of 30 kt winds, is recommended as an alternate to the Pacific Fleet danger area. Keywords: Tropical cyclones, Strike probability, Danger area, Condition-setting aid, Decision aid.

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).