Download or read book Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Download or read book Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund s Precautionary Balances written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-16 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Download or read book Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Valerio Crispolti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Download or read book International Reserves in Low Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a historical perspective on the role of international reserves in low-income countries as a cushion against large external shocks over the last three decades - including the current global crisis. The results suggest that international reserves have played a role in buffering external shocks, with the resulting macroeconomic costs varying with the nature of the shock, the economy's structural characteristics, and the level of reserves.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Download or read book The Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves written by Scott Roger and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Optimal Reserves in Financially Closed Economies written by Mr.Olivier Jeanne and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves differs from the measures often used by practitioners. Second, under plausible calibrations the model is consistent with the rule of thumb that reserves should be close to three months of imports. Third, simple linear rules can capture most of the welfare gains from optimal reserve management. Fourth, policymakers should place more emphasis on how to use reserves in response to shocks than on the reserve target itself.
Download or read book Africa on the Move written by Mr.Lamin Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-22 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the reforms needed to move small middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa to advanced-economy status. The result of intense discussions with public officials in the countries covered, the book blends rigorous theory, econometrics, and practitioners' insights to come up with practical recommendations for policymakers. It spans topics from macroeconomic vulnerability and reserve adequacy to labor market institutions and financial inclusion. The book is a must-read for researchers interested in the economic issues facing developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-06 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CEMAC is broadly benefiting from the positive terms of trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold, albeit slowly, supported by high oil prices and the lifting of COVID-19 containment measures. External reserves have started to build up, though still short of the desired level, owing in part to costly untargeted energy and food subsidies. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with Fund-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions.
Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEMAC written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While improving, CEMAC’s economic situation remains fragile. Growth picked up slightly but remains well below potential. Governments’ fiscal consolidation efforts, along with BEAC’s tighter monetary policy and stricter enforcement of foreign exchange regulations, have contributed to a significant reduction in the region’s fiscal and external imbalances. All CEMAC countries are committed to macroeconomic policies agreed with IMF staff to support the economic recovery and financial sustainability of each country and of the region. The regional central bank and banking supervisor continue to implement policies in support of the IMF-supported programs with CEMAC members. However, fiscal slippages in some countries contributed to the underperformance of international reserve accumulation in early 2018. Looking ahead, a further improvement in the economic and financial situation is projected, assuming full implementation of policy commitments by CEMAC member states and regional institutions. This outlook remains subject to substantial risks from possible weaker program implementation, lower oil prices, and insufficient external financing.
Download or read book How much should I hold Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands written by MissNkunde Mwase and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.
Download or read book Solomon Islands written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-22 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Solomon Islands is slowly rebounding from the slowdown of the first half of 2013, when agriculture, logging, and gold production fell, owing mainly to unfavorable weather developments, lower terms of trade, and one-off factors. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.9 percent for 2013 and 4 percent for 2014. Risks are tilted to the downside, including from lower external demand and grants. Inflation has stabilized at about 6.5 percent and is expected to fall gradually as agricultural prices react to the recovery of production.
Download or read book The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-18 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ethiopia pursues a public sector-led growth strategy that focuses on promoting growth through high public investment supported partly by low nominal interest rates. While the strategy has contributed to robust economic growth in the past, recent developments indicate a buildup of vulnerabilities which need to be addressed in order to sustain this growth performance. While inflation remains high (21 percent at end-2011/12), real GDP growth, which is estimated at around 7 percent in 2011/12 and is projected to decline to 6.5 percent in subsequent years under the continuation of current policies, is still robust.
Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-21 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The CEMAC’s recovery gained momentum in 2022, supported by higher hydrocarbon prices. The external position strengthened, with a rapid foreign reserve build-up, though still below adequate levels. The recent weakening in external buffers will require more forceful action to tighten liquidity conditions, greater compliance of member countries with foreign exchange regulations and stronger fiscal discipline. Underlying non-oil fiscal positions, however, also deteriorated, stressing the need for accelerating structural reforms, addressing recent fiscal slippages, and bringing polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will be critical to strengthen the region’s resilience to hydrocarbon prices volatility, financial instability, entrenched inflation, tighter financial conditions, food insecurity, domestic conflicts and insecurity, and climate-related events.
Download or read book Kingdom of Swaziland written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Swaziland’s growth has been recovering since the 2010–11 fiscal crisis, albeit at a slower pace recently. Growth recovery following the fiscal crisis was broadly supported by the manufacturing and service sectors. In 2015, however, growth is expected to slow, owing to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in tourism and transport sectors. Swaziland’s growth outlook is projected to remain subdued over the medium term, while it is clouded with downside risks. Growth is expected to slow in 2016/17, followed by a modest recovery in the following years.
Download or read book Economic Management in a Volatile Environment written by Ramkishen S. Rajan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-15 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses some of the challenges relating to macroeconomic and financial management in a volatile and uncertain world brought about by greater financial openness. It explores the implications of a key set of issues emanating from financial globalisation on emerging market economies in a rigorous but readable manner.
Download or read book Nigeria written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-24 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nigerian economy remained strong, with a non-oil real GDP of 8.3 percent and an overall real GDP of 6.7 percent. A modest fiscal consolidation took place in 2011 as a response to the substantial monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria and moderation of food prices. Banks showed continued improvement in financial stability. Executive Directors commended the authorities for countercyclical policies. However, they emphasized the need for policies that safeguard macroeconomic stability and ensure inclusive growth.
