Download or read book Optimal Portfolios for the Long Run written by David Blanchett and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is surprisingly little agreement among academics about the existence of time diversification, which we define as the anomaly where equities become less risky over longer investment periods. This study provides the most thorough analysis of time diversification conducted, using 113 years of historical data from 20 countries (over 2,000 years of total return data). We construct optimal portfolios for 20 different countries based on varying levels of investor risk aversion and time horizons using both overlapping and distinct historical time periods. We find strong historical evidence to support the notion that a higher allocation to equities is optimal for investors with longer time horizons, and that the time diversification effect is relatively consistent across countries and that it persists for different levels of risk aversion. We also note that the time diversification effect increased throughout the 20th century despite evidence of a declining risk premium. Although time diversification has been criticized as inconsistent with market efficiency, our empirical results suggest that the superior performance of equities over longer time horizons exists across global equity markets and time periods.

Download or read book 1 N and Long Run Optimal Portfolios written by Carolina Fugazza and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to naive, equally weighted ones. However, existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has a one-month horizon and meanvariance preferences. In this paper, we examine whether their result holds for longer investment horizons, when the asset menu includes bonds and real estate beyond stocks and cash, and when the investor is characterized by constant relative risk aversion preferences which are not locally mean-variance for long horizons. Our experiments indicates that power utility investors with horizons of one year and longer would have on average benefited, ex-post, from an optimizing strategy that exploits simple linear predictability in asset returns over the period January 1995 - December 2007. This result is insensitive to the degree of risk aversion, to the number of predictors being included in the forecasting model, and to the deduction of transaction costs from measured portfolio performance.

Download or read book Equally Weighted Vs Long Run Optimal Portfolios written by Giovanna Nicodano and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Out-of-sample experiments cast doubt on the ability of portfolio optimizing strategies to outperform equally weighted portfolios, when investors have a 1-month time horizon. This paper examines whether this finding holds for longer investment horizons over which the optimizing strategy exploits linear predictability in returns. Our experiments indicate that investors with longer horizons on average would have benefited, ex post, from an optimizing strategy over the period 1995-2009. We analyze performance sensitivity to investor risk aversion, to the number of predictors included in the forecasting model and to the deduction of transaction costs from portfolio performance.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book Robust Portfolios and Weak Incentives in Long Run Investments written by Paolo Guasoni and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the planning horizon is long, and the safe asset grows indefinitely, iso-elastic portfolios are nearly optimal for investors who are close to iso-elastic for high wealth, and not too risk averse for low wealth. We prove this result in a general arbitrage-free, frictionless, semi-martingale model. As a consequence, optimal portfolios are robust to the perturbations in preferences induced by common option compensation schemes, and such incentives are weaker when their horizon is longer. Robust option incentives are possible, but require several arbitrarily large exercise prices, and are not always convex.

Download or read book Optimal Portfolios written by Ralf Korn and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1997 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of the book is the construction of optimal investment strategies in a security market model where the prices follow diffusion processes. It begins by presenting the complete Black-Scholes type model and then moves on to incomplete models and models including constraints and transaction costs. The models and methods presented will include the stochastic control method of Merton, the martingale method of Cox-Huang and Karatzas et al., the log optimal method of Cover and Jamshidian, the value-preserving model of Hellwig etc. Stress is laid on rigorous mathematical presentation and clear economic interpretations while technicalities are kept to the minimum. The underlying mathematical concepts will be provided. No a priori knowledge of stochastic calculus, stochastic control or partial differential equations is necessary (however some knowledge in stochastics and calculus is needed).

Download or read book Optimal Portfolios written by Ralf Korn and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1997 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of the book is the construction of optimal investment strategies in a security market model where the prices follow diffusion processes. It begins by presenting the complete Black-Scholes type model and then moves on to incomplete models and models including constraints and transaction costs. The models and methods presented will include the stochastic control method of Merton, the martingale method of Cox-Huang and Karatzas et al., the log optimal method of Cover and Jamshidian, the value-preserving model of Hellwig etc.

Download or read book Can Long Run Dynamic Optimal Strategies Outperform Fixed Mix Portfolios Evidence from Multiple Data Sets written by Daniele Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using five alternative data sets and a range of specifications concerning the underlying linear predictability models, we study whether long-run dynamic optimizing portfolio strategies may actually outperform simpler benchmarks in out-of-sample tests. The dynamic portfolio problems are solved using a combination of dynamic programming and Monte Carlo methods. The benchmarks are represented by two typical fixed mix strategies: the celebrated equally-weighted portfolio and a myopic, Markowitz-style strategy that fails to account for any predictability in asset returns. Within a framework in which the investor maximizes expected HARA (constant relative risk aversion) utility in a frictionless market, our key finding is that there are enormous differences in optimal long-horizon (in-sample) weights between the mean-variance benchmark and the optimal dynamic weights. In out-of-sample comparisons, there is however no clear-cut, systematic, evidence that long-horizon dynamic strategies outperform naively diversified portfolios.

Download or read book Investing for the Short and the Long Term written by Stanley Fischer and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If asset returns have different dynamics, then their short and long run risk characteristics differ. For instance, if returns on one asset follow a random walk, it is very risky to hold for the long term even if it is quite safe for the short term. This paper examines the effects of different returns dynamics of assets on optimal portfolio behavior, for Portfolios held for differing lengths of times. It then examines the evidence on the dynamics of stock and bill returns in the United States. The evidence is that bill returns are more highly serially correlated than stock returns. Thus their riskiness relative to that of stocks rises the longer they are held. optimal portfolios are simulated, and it is shown that optimal port- folio proportions are not very sensitive to the length of the holding period of the portfolio

Download or read book Serial Correlation of Asset Returns and Optimal Portfolios for the Long and Short Term written by Stanley Fischer and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal portfolios differ according to the length of time they are held without being rebalanced. For the case in which asset returns are identically and independently distributed, it has been shown that optimal portfolios become less diversified as the holding period lengthens. We show that the anti-diversification result does not obtain when asset returns are serially correlated, and examine properties of asymptotic portfolios for the case where the short term interest rate, although known at each moment of time, may change unpredictably over time. The theoretical results provide no presumption about the effects of the length of the holding period on the optimal portfolio. Using estimated processes for stock and bill returns, we show that calculated optimal portfolios are virtually invariant to the length of the holding period. The estimated processes for asset returns also imply very little difference between portfolios calculated ignoring changes in the investment opportunity set and those obtained when the investment opportunity set changes over time.

Download or read book Portfolio Design written by Richard C. Marston and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-29 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Design – choosing the right mix of assets appropriate to a particular investor – is the key to successful investing. It can help you accumulate wealth over time, while cushioning the blow of possible economic downturns. But in order to successfully achieve this goal, you need to be familiar with all of the major asset classes that go into modern portfolios and learn how much they add to portfolio diversification. Thoughtful asset allocation provides discipline to the investment process and gives you the best chance of building and safeguarding wealth. Wharton Professor Richard C. Marston, 2014 recipient of the Investment Management Consultants Association’s prestigious Matthew R. McArthur Award, will guide you through the major decisions that need to be made when designing a portfolio and will put you in the best position to balance the risk-reward relationship that is part of this endeavor. Portfolio Design is to be read by investment advisors. The book is rich in information about individual asset classes, including both traditional assets like stocks and bonds as well as alternative assets such as hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and commodities. So it should appeal to all sophisticated advisors whether or not they are trying to qualify for one of the major investment designations. In fact, the book is designed to be read by any advisor who is as fascinated as Marston by the investment process.

Download or read book Investing for the Long Run written by Dietmar Leisen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A major problem in financial engineering is investing on financial markets for long horizons. At infinite horizons, dynamic versions of the Kelly strategy are mathematically certain to maximize growth, such that these growth-optimal portfolios outperform all other investment strategies. This paper studies investing under finite but long horizons. We define a generalized form of stochastic discount factor (SDF), draw attention to the importance that it is tradeable, and to the related minimum price to generate a target payoff by investing. This leads us to the tradeable SDF that is the inverse of the growth-optimal portfolio. We then show that long-run optimal wealth evolution is closely linked to dynamic versions of Kelly strategies. Finally, we illustrate that our new framework leads to improved risk-return tradeoffs in long-term investments.

Download or read book Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long horizon Portfolios written by Jakub W. Jurek and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic portfolio choice problem of an investor with utility defined over wealth at a terminal horizon who faces an investment opportunity set with time-varying risk premia, real interest rates and inflation. The variation in investment opportunities is captured by a flexible vector autoregressive parameterization, which readily accommodates a large number of assets and state variables. We find that the optimal dynamic portfolio strategy is an affine function of the vector of state variables describing investment opportunities, with coefficients that are a function of the investment horizon. We apply our method to the optimal portfolio choice problem of an investor who can choose between value and growth stock portfolios, and among these equity portfolios plus bills and bonds.

Download or read book Optimal Multi Horizon Portfolios with Forward Looking Expectations and Loss Aversion written by Khalid Alsweilem and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a framework for portfolio optimization that makes three departures from the traditional mean-variance approach. First, we optimize the portfolio over multiple horizons, reflecting the belief that long-term investors care about intertemporal gains and losses, as well as cumulative performance, rather than simply long-run performance (expressed as a terminal value at the end of the optimization period). Second, rather than approximate through variance, which includes upside performance too, we account for loss aversion by simulating more severe shock events than those captured in historical samples, as well as through a specification of investor utility that sharply penalizes loses beyond a specified threshold. Finally, our framework allows investors to express forward-looking expectations (or make Bayesian adjustments) around how future performance may differ from those observed in the past. We demonstrate the value of the framework and how it could be implemented through a consideration of the problem faced by sovereign wealth funds with long-term investment horizons. While this implementation exercise is illustrative, we find that these adjustments - which more realistically capture the observed behavior of sovereign wealth funds as long-term investors than the traditional mean-variance heuristic - result in meaningful shifts in optimal portfolio weights.

Download or read book Lifecycle Investing written by Ian Ayres and published by ReadHowYouWant.com. This book was released on 2010-05 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diversification provides a well-known way of getting something close to a free lunch: by spreading money across different kinds of investments, investors can earn the same return with lower risk (or a much higher return for the same amount of risk). This strategy, introduced nearly fifty years ago, led to such strategies as index funds. What if we were all missing out on another free lunch that’s right under our noses? InLifecycle Investing, Barry Nalebuff and Ian Ayres-two of the most innovative thinkers in business, law, and economics-have developed tools that will allow nearly any investor to diversify their portfolios over time. By using leveraging when young-a controversial idea that sparked hate mail when the authors first floated it in the pages ofForbes-investors of all stripes, from those just starting to plan to those getting ready to retire, can substantially reduce overall risk while improving their returns. InLifecycle Investing, readers will learn How to figure out the level of exposure and leverage that’s right foryou How the Lifecycle Investing strategy would have performed in the historical market Why it will work even if everyone does it Whennotto adopt the Lifecycle Investing strategy Clearly written and backed by rigorous research,Lifecycle Investingpresents a simple but radical idea that will shake up how we think about retirement investing even as it provides a healthier nest egg in a nicely feathered nest.

Download or read book Optimal Portfolios Under Time Varying Investment Opportunities Parameter Uncertainty and Ambiguity Aversion written by Thomas Dangl and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the implications of predictability on the optimal asset allocation of ambiguity-averse long-term investors and analyze the term structure of the multivariate risk-return trade-off considering parameter uncertainty. We calibrate the model to real returns of US stocks, long-term bonds, cash, real estate, and gold using the term spread and the dividend-price ratio as additional predictive variables, and we show that over long horizons the optimal asset allocation is significantly influenced by the covariance structure induced by estimation errors. The ambiguity-averse long-term investor optimally tilts her portfolio toward a seemingly inefficient portfolio, which shows maximum robustness against estimation errors.

Download or read book Modern Portfolio Management written by Martin L. Leibowitz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-09 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Active 130/30 Extensions is the newest wave of disciplined investment strategies that involves asymmetric decision-making on long/short portfolio decisions, concentrated investment risk-taking in contrast to diversification, systematic portfolio risk management, and flexibility in portfolio design. This strategy is the building block for a number of 130/30 and 120/20 investment strategies offered to institutional and sophisticated high net worth individual investors who want to manage their portfolios actively and aggressively to outperform the market.