Download or read book On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts written by Charles F. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Forecasting written by Lawrence Ambrose Hughes and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology written by E. S. Epstein and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-30 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The climatologist (like the hydrologist, the economist, the social scientist, and others) is frequently faces with situations in which a prediction must be made of the outcome of a process that is inherently probabilistic, and this inherent uncertainty is compounded by the expert's limited knowledge of the process itself. An example might be predicting next summer's mean temperature at a previously unmonitored location. This monograph deals with the balanced use of expert judgment and limited data in such situations. How does the expert quantify his or her judgment? When data are plentiful they can tell a complete story, but how does one alter prior judgment in the light of a few observations, and integrate that information into a consistent and knowledgeable prediction? Bayes theorem provides a straightforward rule for modifying a previously held belief in the light of new data. Bayesian methods are valuable and practical. This monograph is intended to introduce some concepts of statistical inference and prediction that are not generally treated in the traditional college course in statistics, and have not seen their way into the technical literature generally available to the practising climatologist. Even today, where Bayesian methods are presented the practical aspects of their application are seldom emphasized. Using examples drawn from climatology and meteorology covering probabilistic processes ranging from Bernoulli to normal to autoregression, methods for quantifying beliefs as concise probability statements are described, and the implications of new data on beliefs and of beliefs on predictions are developed. istical inference and prediction that are not generally treated in the traditional college course in statistics, and have not seen their way into the technical literature generally available to the practising climatologist. Even today, where Bayesian methods are presented the practical aspects of their application are seldom emphasized. Using examples drawn from climatology and meteorology covering probabilistic processes ranging from Bernoulli to normal to autoregression, methods for quantifying beliefs as concise probability statements are described, and the implications of new data on beliefs and of beliefs on predictions are developed.
Download or read book Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan H. Murphy and published by Westview Press. This book was released on 1985-01-03 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Compendium of Meteorology written by Horace R. Byers and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 828 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Download or read book Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics written by Joseph J. George and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics provides forecasters and pilots wanting to study more about the art and science of predicting weather with the essential aids and methods for making practical application of their knowledge of the fundamentals of the science of meteorology. The publication first underscores the forecast problem, construction of the prognostic pressure chart, and prediction of cyclogenesis. Discussions focus on forecasting information concerning new cyclogenesis, making operational and planning forecasts, cyclogenesis off the east coast of Asia, application of weather forecasts to operational problems, and cyclogenesis in the eastern United States. The text then ponders on forecasting the movement, deepening, and filling of cyclones and movement of anticyclones in North America. The manuscript takes a look at the movement of cold lows at the 500-millibar level and their influence on surface lows, displacement of surface cold fronts, and warm frontal analysis and movement. Topics include movement of warm fronts, identification and location of warm fronts, East Coast wedge type, and warm frontogenesis. The text then examines the movement of tropical cyclones, prediction of very low ceiling and fogs, and prediction of severe weather. The publication is a dependable reference for weather forecasters and pilots.
Download or read book Precipitation Probabilities in Weather Forecasts written by Escal S. Bennett and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Government wide Index to Federal Research Development Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 1062 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book The Application of the Hydraulic Analogy to Certain Atmospheric Flow Problems written by Morris Tepper and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the summary, suggestions are made relative to the inclusive of the theory discussed in this paper in the day-to-day analysis of the weather. Indications are also given for the extension of the hydraulic analogy beyond the point covered in this paper.
Download or read book Research Progress and Plans of the U S Weather Bureau written by United States. Weather Bureau and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology written by Thomas E. Croley and published by Amer Society of Civil Engineers. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Research Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Geophysics written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1955-01-01 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Geophysics
