Download or read book On the Relation Between the Persistence and Predictability of Dividend Growth Rates written by Jan Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All variations in price-dividend ratios result from either movements in expected returns or expected dividend growth rates. If growth rates contain a persistent component, even small changes in expected near-term dividends can cause large movements in prices. I derive closed-form solutions for the relation between the persistency of dividend growth rates and the ability of price-dividend ratios to forecast future dividends. For a constant risk premium, it is possible to match the low predictability of near-term dividends by choosing a sufficiently long half-life of news, however, this long half-life implies a counterfactual high degree of predictability for long-term dividend growth rates.
Download or read book The predictability of returns with regime shifts in consumption and dividend growth written by Anisha Ghosh and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different time-series processes in the two regimes. In linear predictive regressions over 1930-2009, the market return is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 11.7% if the probability of being in the first regime exceeds 50%; and dividend growth is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 28.3% if the probability of being in the second regime exceeds 50%. The model-implied state variables perform significantly better at predicting the equity, size, and value premia, the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates, and the variance of the market return than linear regressions with the market price-dividend ratio and risk free rate as predictive variables.
Download or read book Dividend Momentum and Stock Return Predictability written by Juan Antolín-Díaz and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A long tradition in macro-finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop methods to draw from any posterior distribution of a VAR that encodes a priori skepticism about large amounts of return predictability while imposing the CS restrictions. In doing so, we show how a common empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return predictability, which we label "dividend momentum." Compared to estimation based on OLS, our restricted informative prior leads to a much more moderate, but still significant, degree of return predictability, with forecasts that are helpful out-of-sample and realistic asset allocation prescriptions with Sharpe ratios that out-perform common benchmarks.
Download or read book Essays on Return Predictability and Yield Factors written by Xuyang Ma and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation includes three chapters in which the first two are on return predictability and the third is on yield curve and yield factors. The abstract of each of them is as follows: 1), This paper proposes using capital gains instead of total returns in return predictability tests. Total return predictability can be inferred from capital gain predictability since total returns with dividends are highly correlated with returns based on capital gains only. An exact linear relationship exists among log dividend growth, log capital gain and log dividend price ratio. This exact linear relationship has similar implication as the Campbell-Shiller (1988) linear approximation but is more precise and easier for predictability tests. I verify the standard empirical findings on return predictability using capital gain predictability. Separation of price change and dividend change also leads to a new finding: shocks to dividend growth is shown to have significant positive correlation with shocks to dividend price ratio in the vector autoregressive regression (VAR) rather than close to zero as shown in previous literature. 2), This paper tests the return predictability of the cyclical and trend components in the log dividend price ratio. The log dividend ratio is found to have a near-unit root trend factor if the expectation of the future discount factor is highly persistent. We use Bayesian analysis and the Kalman filter to extract the strictly stationary and near-random-walk components in the log dividend price ratio. The extracted cyclical process can predict one-year ahead total returns during the post-war period and one-year ahead dividend growth rates during the pre-war and war period with notable R^2. We also demonstrate a reverse of predictability: returns become more predictable while dividend growth rates become more unpredictable. 3), This paper examines the fourth principal component of the yields matrix, which is largely ignored in macro-finance forecasting applications, in the context of predicting excess bond returns. Using yields data from the Fama-Bliss and the Federal Reserve, we present the significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of models including the fourth yield factor. Additionally, the "return-forecasting factor" in Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) is shown to be a restricted linear combination of all yield factors and to be highly correlated with the second and fourth factors. We interpret the fourth yield factor as a factor representing "S-shape" (the shape of a sigmoid curve) and demonstrate the connection between the S-shape factor and the yield curve.
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-14 with total page 1700 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative finance is a combination of economics, accounting, statistics, econometrics, mathematics, stochastic process, and computer science and technology. Increasingly, the tools of financial analysis are being applied to assess, monitor, and mitigate risk, especially in the context of globalization, market volatility, and economic crisis. This two-volume handbook, comprised of over 100 chapters, is the most comprehensive resource in the field to date, integrating the most current theory, methodology, policy, and practical applications. Showcasing contributions from an international array of experts, the Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management is unparalleled in the breadth and depth of its coverage. Volume 1 presents an overview of quantitative finance and risk management research, covering the essential theories, policies, and empirical methodologies used in the field. Chapters provide in-depth discussion of portfolio theory and investment analysis. Volume 2 covers options and option pricing theory and risk management. Volume 3 presents a wide variety of models and analytical tools. Throughout, the handbook offers illustrative case examples, worked equations, and extensive references; additional features include chapter abstracts, keywords, and author and subject indices. From "arbitrage" to "yield spreads," the Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management will serve as an essential resource for academics, educators, students, policymakers, and practitioners.
Download or read book Forecasting Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book The Dividend Growth Investment Strategy written by RoxAnn Klugman and published by Citadel Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book examines and compares the various investment strategies of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, and shows in hard figures why Dividend Growth Investment Strategy surpasses the strictly mutual fund approach to investing. The Dividend Growth Investment Strategy provides a sound and simple investment strategy that allows you to manage your own financial destiny."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Download or read book Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth written by Andreas Fagereng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Download or read book Quantitative Financial Economics written by Keith Cuthbertson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of the hugely successful Quantitative Financial Economics has been revised and updated to reflect the most recent theoretical and econometric/empirical advances in the financial markets. It provides an introduction to models of economic behaviour in financial markets, focusing on discrete time series analysis. Emphasis is placed on theory, testing and explaining ‘real-world’ issues. The new edition will include: Updated charts and cases studies. New companion website allowing students to put theory into practice and to test their knowledge through questions and answers. Chapters on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping and market microstructure.
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance written by Adrian R. Bell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples. Written by international experts in their field, the unique approach describes a question or issue in finance and then demonstrates the methodologies that may be used to solve it. All of the techniques described are used to address real problems rather than being presented for their own sake, and the areas of application have been carefully selected so that a broad range of methodological approaches can be covered. The Handbook is aimed primarily at doctoral researchers and academics who are engaged in conducting original empirical research in finance. In addition, the book will be useful to researchers in the financial markets and also advanced Masters-level students who are writing dissertations.
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance written by G. Constantinides and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-11-04 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 1B covers the economics of financial markets: the saving and investment decisions; the valuation of equities, derivatives, and fixed income securities; and market microstructure.
Download or read book Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-11 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.
Download or read book Signal Processing Sensor Fusion and Target Recognition VI written by Ivan Kadar and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Knowledge Based Systems written by Rajendra Akerkar and published by Jones & Bartlett Publishers. This book was released on 2009-08-25 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a system that uses artificial intelligence techniques in problem-solving processes to support human decision-making, learning, and action. Ideal for advanced-undergraduate and graduate students, as well as business professionals, this text is designed to help users develop an appreciation of KBS and their architecture and understand a broad variety of knowledge-based techniques for decision support and planning. It assumes basic computer science skills and a math background that includes set theory, relations, elementary probability, and introductory concepts of artificial intelligence. Each of the 12 chapters is designed to be modular, providing instructors with the flexibility to model the book to their own course needs. Exercises are incorporated throughout the text to highlight certain aspects of the material presented and to simulate thought and discussion. A comprehensive text and resource, Knowledge-Based Systems provides access to the most current information in KBS and new artificial intelligences, as well as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and soft systems.
