Download or read book On the Existence and Interpretation of a unit Root in U S GNP written by J. Bradford De Long and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a stationary autoregressive process about a linear deterministic trend. The difference between the lack of persistence of output shocks either before \VWII or over the entire century, on the one hand, and the strong signs of persistence of output shocks found by Campbell and Mankiw (1987) and by Nelson and Plosser (1982) for more recent periods is striking. It suggests to us a Keynesian interpretation of the large unit root in post-WWII U.S. output: perhaps post-WWII output shocks appear persistent because automatic stabilizers and other demand-management policies have substantially damped the transitory fluctuations that made up the pre-WWH Bums-Mitchell business cycle.
Download or read book Rational Bubbles written by Matthias Salge and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 3 On the Economic Relevance of Rational Bubbles 79 3. 1 Capital markets . . . . . . . . . 80 3. 1. 1 Efficient capital markets 86 3. 1. 2 Rational bubbles on capital markets. 93 3. 1. 3 Economic caveats . 103 3. 2 Foreign exchange markets 109 3. 3 Hyperinflation. . . . . . . 117 4 On Testing for Rational Bubbles 123 4. 1 Indirect tests . . . . . . . . . 123 4. 1. 1 Variance bounds tests 124 4. 1. 2 Specification tests . . . 137 4. 1. 3 Integration and cointegration tests 140 4. 1. 4 Final assessment of indirect tests . 150 4. 1. 5 A digression: Charemza, Deadman (1995) analysis. 151 4. 2 Direct tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4. 2. 1 Deterministic bubble in German hyperinflation. 158 4. 2. 2 Intrinsic bubbles on stock markets. 163 4. 2. 3 An econometric caveat . . . . . 168 4. 2. 4 Final assessment of direct tests 172 5 On the Explanatory Power of Rational Bubbles on the G- man Stock Market 175 5. 1 Data . . . . . . . 175 5. 2 Direct test for rational bubbles 181 5. 2. 1 Temporary Markovian bubbles. 184 5. 2. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 193 ix 5. 2. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles 198 5. 3 A digression: Testing for unit roots 204 6 Concluding Remarks 215 A Results 221 A. 1 Temporary markovian bubbles. 221 A. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 225 A. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 1 to 2 229 A. 4 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 3 to 6 230 A. 5 Integration tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Download or read book Journal of Econometrics written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Journal of Econometrics is designed to serve as an outlet for important new research in both theoretical and applied econometrics. The scope of the Journal includes papers dealing with estimation and other methodological aspects of the application of statistical inference to economic data, as well as papers dealing with the application of econometric techniques to substantive areas of economics. Econometric research in the traditional divisions of the discipline or in the newly developing areas of social experimentation are decidedly within the range of the Journal's interests.
Download or read book Models for Energy Policy written by Jean-Baptiste Lesourd and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Energy policy is a key area in all of the world's economies, this book integrates physical, technical, economic and social concerns.
Download or read book Unit Roots Investment Measures and Other Essays written by Allan H. Meltzer and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 860 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Research Report University of Uppsala Department of Statistics written by Uppsala universitet. Statistiska institutionen and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonstationarity and Structural Breaks in Economic Time Series written by Antonio E. Noriega-Muro and published by Ashgate Publishing. This book was released on 1993 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an econometric analysis concerned with the problems of testing for the existence of stochastic or deterministic trends in series which possess structural breaks. It opens with a survey of many of the available tests for unit roots, providing, at the same time, an introduction to the theory of testing for unit roots against both dixed and non-fixed trend-stationary alternatives.
Download or read book Policy Modeling Volume 14 Number 1 written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multicountry Modelling of Financial Markets written by Jon P. Cockerline and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Theory of Managed Trade written by Kyle Bagwell and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a theory that predicts low levels of protection during periods of "normal" trade volume coupled with episodes of "special" protection when trade volumes surge. This dynamic pattern of protection emerges from a model in which countries choose levels of protection in a repeated game setting facing volatile trade swings. High trade volume leads to a greater incentive to unilaterally defect from cooperative tariff levels. Therefore as the volume of trade expands, the level of protection must rise in a cooperative equilibrium to mitigate the rising trade volume and hold the incentive to defect in check.
Download or read book Konjunkturpolitik written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. We find that demand disturbances have a hump shaped effect on both output and unemployment; the effect peaks after a year and vanishes after two to five years. Up to a scale factor, the dynamic effect on unemployment of demand disturbances is a mirror image of that on output. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, to reach a peak after two years and a plateau after five years. 'Favorab1e supply disturbances may initially increase unemployment. This is followed by a decline in unemployment, with a slow return over time to its original value. While this dynamic characterization is fairly sharp, the data are not as specific as to the relative contributions of demand and supply disturbances to output fluctuations. We find that the time series of demand-determined output fluctuations has peaks and troughs which coincide with most of the NBER troughs and peaks. But variance decompositions of output at various horizons giving the respective contributions of supply and demand disturbances are not precisely estimated. For instance, at a forecast horizon of four quarters, we find that, under alternative assumptions, the contribution of demand disturbances ranges from 40 to over 95 per cent.
Download or read book Can Inter industry Wage Differentials Justify Strategic Trade Policy written by Lawrence F. Katz and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between labor market imperfections and trade policies. The available evidence suggests that pervasive industry wage differentials of up to 20 percent remain even after controlling for differences in observed measures of workers' skill and the effects of unions. Theoretical analysis indicates that given non-competitive wage differentials of this magnitude policies directed at encouraging employment in high-wage sectors could significantly enhance allocative efficiency. For the United States and other developed countries, such policies are more likely to involve export promotion than import substitution. Increased international trade flows (at least through 1984) have been associated with increased employment in high-wage U.S. manufacturing industries relative to low-wage U.S. manufacturing industries.
Download or read book Does the Harberger Model Greatly Understate the Excess Burden of the Corporate Tax written by Jane Gravelle and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important deficiency in Harberger's (1962) model of corporate income taxation is its inability to consider both corporate and noncorporate production of the same good. This precludes analysis of within-industry substitution of noncorporate for corporate production in response to the tax. Such within-industry substitution has potentially major implications for both the excess burden and incidence of the corporate tax. In Gravelle and Kotlikoff (1988) we present a new model of the corporation income tax. The model has two key characteristics. First, corporate and noncorporate firms produce (with identical production functions) each of the model's goods both before and after corporate taxation is imposed, and second, the decision of entrepreneurs to establish unincorporated business is endogenous. Compared with the Harberger model, the new model predicts a very much larger excess burden from corporate income taxation. The incidence of the corporate tax can also differ dramatically in the two models. Several commentators on our approach suggested that while corporate and noncorporate fins produce goods that are close substitutes, they are not necessarily identical goods. Others questioned the extent to which our results hinged on the endogeneity of entrepreneurship. This paper is a response to those comments. It presents a Harberger-type model (with no entrepreneurs), but one in which each industry/sector contains corporate and noncorporate fins (with identical production functions) which produce goods that are close substitutes in demand. As in our earlier model, the scope for considerable within-industry substitution of noncorporate for corporate capital leads to a very much larger excess burden than that in the Harberger model. For example, using Harberger's original 195? data and assuming unitary substitution elasticities in production and in inter-sector demand, but substitution elasticities of 30 in intra-sector demand, the excess burden of the corporate income tax in the current model is 107 percent of tax revenue. This figure is quite close to the 123 percent figure reported in Cravelle and Kotlikoff (1988) for the case of unitary substitution elasticities in production and inter-industry demand. Both numbers are considerably larger than the 8 percent excess burden figure that arises in the traditional Harberger model with unitary substitution elasticities.
