Download or read book On the credibility issue of exchange rate target zones written by Matthias Rau-Göhring and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2003-04-29 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Zusammenfassung: Währungskrisen, wie die des Europäischen Währungssystems (EWS) 1992, können noch immer nur unzureichend vorausgesagt werden. Es wird jedoch anerkannt, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit eines jeden Währungssystems ausschließlich endogen bestimmt wird, d.h. durch Interaktion der einzelnen Akteure an den Wechselkursmärkten. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob ein bestimmtes Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß, eingeführt von Avesani, Gallo und Salmon (1995), geeignet ist, die große EWS Krise 1992 vorauszusagen. Dabei handelt es sich um ein dynamisches Spiel, in dem die beiden Akteure (Zentralbank und Finanzmarkt) miteinander interagieren und damit die Glaubwürdigkeit des Systems aushandeln . Es wird gezeigt, dass o.g. Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß ein geeigneter Indikator für Währungskrisen darstellt, was empirisch anhand des französischen Francs, der italienischen Lira und des niederländischen Guldens nachgewiesen wird. Introduction: The objective of the present study is to present the literature of exchange rate target zones and to explore empirically the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon credibility measure for selected currencies belonging to the Exchange-Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). In the past decade the empirical literature on real world target zones mushroomed considerably, but still, its overall significance in explaining strains in the relevant foreign exchange markets remains relatively low. In this context, I will explore whether the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon (1995) credibility measure demonstrates more power than earlier studies in the analysis of the 1992/3 EMS crisis. It is not my intention to pursue a normative analysis whether flexible or fixed exchange rates or intermediate regimes are superior to one another in terms of their economic implications. This question is beyond the scope of my analysis.1 Given that target zones are applied frequently in the real world, I purely want to figure out, whether their application is sensible on grounds of a firm commitment of the policy-makers. Exchange rate bands have been discussed widely after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1973. Although experiences with the fixed exchange rate regime were disappointing in the 1960s, increased volatility and/or overshooting of the exchange rates in the 1970s let economists doubt the famous argument by Friedman (1953) that speculation would stabilize exchange rate movements in the floating system. McKinnon (1976) reckoned that [...]

Download or read book The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the assumption of no arbitrage exchange rate target zone credibility is tested by whether domestic interest rates fall within “rate-of-return bands” between the maximum and minimum home-currency rate of return on a foreign investment absent a devaluation. Under the assumption of uncovered interest rate parity credibility is tested by whether expected future exchange rates fall within the exchange rate band. These tests are applied on data about the Swedish target zone during January 1987-August 1990.

Download or read book On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones written by Renzo G. Avesani and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments written by Mr.Leonardo Bartolini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-03-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band. The credibility of the commitment to the target zone implicit in forward market data can be extracted by estimating the model. Application to French/German data indicates that the model is capable of matching observed patterns of interest rate differentials during the EMS, while yielding estimates of the credibility parameters that accord with the experience of the FF/DM exchange rate during the 1980s.

Download or read book Target Zones and Exchange Rates written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we develop an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone. The model is general enough to nest most theoretical and empirical models in the existing literature. We find evidence of two types of jumps in exchange rates. Realignment jumps are those that are associated with the periodic realignments of the target zone and within-the-band jumps are those that can be accommodated within the current target zone. The exchange rate may jump outside the current target zone band, in the case of a realignment, but when no jump occurs the target zone is credible (there is zero probability of a realignment) and the exchange rate must stay within the band. We incorporate jumps, in general, by conditioning the distribution of exchange rate changes on a jump variable where the probability and size of a jump vary over time as a function of financial and macroeconomic variables. With this more general model, we revisit the empirical evidence from the European Monetary System regarding the conditional distribution of exchange rate changes, the credibility of the system, and the size of the foreign exchange risk premia. In contrast to some previous findings, we conclude that the FF/DM rate exhibits considerable non-linearities, realignments are predictable and the credibility of the system did not increase after 1987. Moreover, our model implies that the foreign exchange risk premium becomes large during speculative crises. A comparison with the Deutschemark/Dollar rate suggests that an explicit target zone does have a noticeable effect on the time-series behavior of exchange rates.

Download or read book The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the additional assumption of uncovered interest rate parity, an equivalent test is whether expected future exchange rates are outside the exchange rate band. In addition, the expected future exchange rates are used to give an estimate of the probability of future devaluations.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Target Zones written by António Portugal Duarte and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra-marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, 'honeymoon effect', 'smooth pasting' and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra-marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.

Download or read book Assessing Target Zone Credibility written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.

Download or read book An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target Zones written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by . This book was released on 1991-02 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of nonlinearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing “target-zone” exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing nonlinear models of limited exchange rate flexibility.

Download or read book Does the Credibility of the Exchange Rate Depend on the Width of the Target Zone written by Tore Anderé Lysebo and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Relationship Between Different Concepts of Credibility in a Simple Exchange Rate Target Zone Model written by Staffan Ringbom and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Fundamentals on the Credibility of Target Zone Exchange Rates written by Juan Ramón Castro and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Distributional Approach to Exchange Rate Target Zones written by Colin Rose and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On the Estimation of Fundamental Divergence and Implied Measures of Credibility in Exchange Rate Target Zones written by Giampiero M. Gallo and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On the Sustainability of Exchange Rate Target Zones with Central Parity Realignments written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Narrow Target Zones Within Broad Zones written by Staffan Ringbom and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Banks around the world are commonly responsible for their exchange rate policies. During the 1990s it has been clear that the controllability of the exchange rates by the central banks' interventions is limited (McKinnon, 1993). When the underlying monetary reserves are bounded, which in practice is the case, a target zone can never be credibly defended at the official borders of an announced zone. With limited reserves all credible interventions must be intra-marginal with respect to the official exchange rate zone. The adapted principle with unofficial narrow zones within broad zones in the EMS is the only appealing policy, as all interventions at the borders of an official zone signal non-credibility to the market (cf Labhard and Wyplosz, 1996). Any visit and intervention at the official border of the zone has to be compensated by a gamble about a regime collapse. This gamble must be randomized on the underlying control variable. It is formally shown why there do not exist any critical limits for the reserves that ensure a credible behavior of the exchange rate within a target zone regime (cf Flood and Garber, 1991; Krugman & Rotemberg, 1990).

Download or read book On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Business School of the City University of London presents the Financial Econometrics Research Centre (FERC) working paper entitled "On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones," by Renzo G. Avesani, Giampiero M. Gallo, and Mark Salmon. The paper was published October 31, 1999 and is in PDF format. The authors discuss the management of exchange rate target zones. These target zones may be considered a signalling game between monetary authories and the financial markets.