Download or read book On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (5° N.-5° S., 120°-170° W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Niño and 10 La Niña, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing show that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's especially for El Niño, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Niño and La Niña looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Niño and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Niña, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Niño, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Niño are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (or longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Niño occured in 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Niño is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Download or read book On the Bimodality of Enso Cycle Extremes written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-09-26 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5 deg. N., -5 deg. S., 120-170 deg. W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later. Wilson, Robert M. Marshall Space Flight Center NASA/TP-2000-209961, NAS 1.60:209961, M-96
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book El Ni o During the 1990 s written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, El Niño refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis herein however, appear to mitigate this belief.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Reports Articles Papers and Presentations written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones 1950 1999 written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Science Directorate Publications and Presentations January 1 December 31 2000 written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences written by Daniel S. Wilks and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2011-07-04 with total page 697 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided
Download or read book Extreme Events written by Mario Chavez and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences. This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve: (i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
Download or read book Tropical Extremes written by Venugopal Vuruputur and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-08-28 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Extremes: Natural Variability and Trends features the most up-to-date information on present and future trends related to climate change and tropical extremes. Including contributions from the foremost experts in the field, this important reference addresses the science behind climate change and natural variability in relation to tropical extremes. The book also includes practical insight into modeling and observation approaches. In a warming world, the increase of weather extremes presents a scientifically complex and societally relevant challenge. The book confronts these challenges with observational evidence, modeling studies and expected impacts. This is an essential reference for researchers, modelers and students in the fields of climate and atmospheric science looking to better understand the causes and effects of tropical extremes and natural variability. Illuminates the role of natural variability and climate change in determining the fate and state of tropical extremes Offers a robust guide for analysis relating to the impacts of extremes, thus providing a potential roadmap for navigating the future of risk analysis and the water-food-energy nexus Edited by a diverse team of global experts Includes contributions from leading researchers in the field, comprising the most up-to-date understanding of tropical extremes
Download or read book Climate Dynamics written by De-Zheng Sun and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-02 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 189. Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? presents the major climate phenomena within the climate system to underscore the potency of dynamics in giving rise to climate change and variability. These phenomena include deep convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and its planetary-scale organization: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the monsoons, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the low-frequency variability of extratropical circulations. The volume also has a chapter focusing on the discussion of the causes of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice and a chapter devoted to the discussion of the causes of recent changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. On each topic, the basic material of climate dynamics is covered to aid the understanding of the forefront research, making the volume accessible to a broad spectrum of readers. The volume highlights include Diabatic and nonlinear aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Causes of sea ice melting in the Arctic Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone activity Origins of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Causes of climate variability of Asian monsoons The volume will be of particular interest to graduate students and young researchers in atmospheric and oceanic sciences and related disciplines such as geology and geography. The book will also be a good read for those who have a more general interest in the Earth's climate and why it varies.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book The Regional Impacts of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Download or read book Extreme Events in Human Evolution From the Pliocene to the Anthropocene written by Huw Groucutt and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-11-07 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Weather written by Philip John Sallis and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2018-08-29 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term extreme weather normally conjures up thoughts of massive storms or heat waves or overtly cold temperatures. These are all examples of what we might consider as weather events that occur out of the ordinary or what is regarded as the normal pattern of calm, heat, cold, dry, or wet conditions for one season of the year or another. The point is that if we consider an oscillation of data points in a weather pattern and plot a mean through it, extreme weather can be observed as a perturbation in a distribution of climatic events over time. These events may be short-lived, such as a wind gust occurrence, or of longer duration, such as heavy rain leading to flooding. Importantly, once initiated, a perturbation event has an associated consequence, which usually requires human intervention to rectify the event’s consequences.
Download or read book Extreme Precipitation Events Spatio Temporal Connections Forecasting Generation Impact Analysis Vulnerability and Risk Assessment written by Sanjeev Kumar Jha and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-03-17 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The El Ni o Phenomenon written by United Nations Environment Programme and published by UN. This book was released on 1992 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the effects of, and research into, the El Nino phenomenon. Originating in the Pacific region, El Nino effects a reversal in the direction of winds and ocean currents, and changes in ocean temperature between Indonesia and the Pacific coas
