Download or read book On Some Problems of Estimation and Prediction for Non Stationary Time Series Primary Source Edition written by James Thomas McClave and published by Nabu Press. This book was released on 2013-10 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. that were either part of the original artifact, or were introduced by the scanning process. We believe this work is culturally important, and despite the imperfections, have elected to bring it back into print as part of our continuing commitment to the preservation of printed works worldwide. We appreciate your understanding of the imperfections in the preservation process, and hope you enjoy this valuable book.
Download or read book On Some Problems of Estimation and Prediction for Non stationary Time Series written by James Thomas McClave and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many techniques are available for estimating the parameters of linear stationary time series. The effect of some of these estimators on the least squares predictor for some future value of the series is examined. We have obtained approximations for the increase in prediction error due to parameter estimation in several cases for which no exact expression could be found. An efficient estimator for the parameters in a first order autoregressive-moving average model is developed by making use of a linear function of the autocorrelations. For more general models we conclude that efficient estimation is so difficult to attain that first consideration in many estimation prediction problems should be given to ease of calculation. Numerous unsolved estimation and prediction problems remain for non-stationary time series. We consider the logistic growth process, which is used extensively as an economic and population growth model, in detail. Current estimation procedures for the logistic process' parameters make no reference to an error structure. We propose a probability structure consistent with the realistic properties of the series. We then use this structure to obtain estimators from three different observational standpoints: (1) that of observation at equidistant time points, (2) that of continuous observation, and (3) that of arrival time observation. For observation types (1) and (2) we have used a modification of maximum likelihood procedures to obtain estimators having most of the usual properties associated with maximum likelihood estimators. A computer program was written for type (1) to solve the intractable estimation equations, using the Newton-Rhapson procedure. Observation of arrival times is shown not to lead to any useful estimation procedures. We also examine the effect of the estimators calculated from the observations taken at equal time intervals (type (1) above) on the error of prediction. The procedure developed for observation type (1) is then compared by means of example to an estimation procedure developed by Rhodes. The logistic model is also fitted by each method to the population of conterminous United States. The estimates are then used to obtain predictions of the population of conterminous United States in 1970. We conclude from the results that the effort required to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates is worthwhile. We further conjecture that the methods developed may be applicable to other growth processes.
Download or read book Statistics in Volcanology written by Heidy M. Mader and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.
Download or read book Using R for Principles of Econometrics written by Constantin Colonescu and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2017-12-28 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a beginner's guide to applied econometrics using the free statistics software R. It provides and explains R solutions to most of the examples in 'Principles of Econometrics' by Hill, Griffiths, and Lim, fourth edition. 'Using R for Principles of Econometrics' requires no previous knowledge in econometrics or R programming, but elementary notions of statistics are helpful.
Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book Non Linear Time Series written by Kamil Feridun Turkman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-29 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a useful combination of probabilistic and statistical tools for analyzing nonlinear time series. Key features of the book include a study of the extremal behavior of nonlinear time series and a comprehensive list of nonlinear models that address different aspects of nonlinearity. Several inferential methods, including quasi likelihood methods, sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods and particle filters, are also included so as to provide an overall view of the available tools for parameter estimation for nonlinear models. A chapter on integer time series models based on several thinning operations, which brings together all recent advances made in this area, is also included. Readers should have attended a prior course on linear time series, and a good grasp of simulation-based inferential methods is recommended. This book offers a valuable resource for second-year graduate students and researchers in statistics and other scientific areas who need a basic understanding of nonlinear time series.
Download or read book Forecasting Unstable and Non stationary Time Series written by Carlo Grillenzoni and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Non Stationary Stochastic Processes Estimation written by Maksym Luz and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2024-05-20 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of forecasting future values of economic and physical processes, the problem of restoring lost information, cleaning signals or other data observations from noise, is magnified in an information-laden word. Methods of stochastic processes estimation depend on two main factors. The first factor is construction of a model of the process being investigated. The second factor is the available information about the structure of the process under consideration. In this book, we propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation (extrapolation, interpolation, and filtering) of linear functionals depending on unobserved values of stochastic sequences and processes with periodically stationary and long memory multiplicative seasonal increments. Formulas for calculating the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral structure of the considered sequences and processes are exactly known. In the case where spectral densities of the sequences and processes are not known exactly while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given, we apply the minimax-robust method of estimation.
Download or read book Studies in the Identification and Forecasting of Non stationary Time Series written by Dean W. Wichern and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimation and Detection Problems in Nonstationary Time Series written by Luke P. Dugdale and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Non linear and Non stationary Time Series Analysis written by Maurice Bertram Priestley and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Analysis of Time Series written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-03-30 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1975, The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction has introduced legions of statistics students and researchers to the theory and practice of time series analysis. With each successive edition, bestselling author Chris Chatfield has honed and refined his presentation, updated the material to reflect advances in the field, and presented interesting new data sets. The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www.crcpress.com. A free online appendix on time series analysis using R can be accessed at http://people.bath.ac.uk/mascc/TSA.usingR.doc. Highlights of the Sixth Edition: A new section on handling real data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of examples and practical advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few years The analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.
Download or read book Control and Dynamic Systems V30 Advances in Algorithms and Computational Techniques in Dynamic System Control Part 3 of 3 written by C.T. Leonides and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-12-02 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Control and Dynamic Systems: Advances in Theory in Applications, Volume 30: Advances in Algorithms and Computational Techniques in Dynamic Systems Control, Part 3 of 3 discusses developments in algorithms and computational techniques for control and dynamic systems. This volume begins with the issue of decision making or optimal control in the natural environment. It then discusses large-scale systems composed of multiple sensors; algorithms for systems with multiplicative noise; stochastic differential games; Markovian targets; low-cost microcomputer and true digital control systems; and algorithms for the design of teleoperated systems. This book is an important reference for practitioners in the field who want a comprehensive source of techniques with significant applied implications.
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Download or read book NBS Special Publication written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-21 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Download or read book Research Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
