Download or read book On Science Inference Information and Decision Making written by A. Szaniawski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are two competing pictures of science. One considers science as a system of inferences, whereas another looks at science as a system of actions. The essays included in this collection offer a view which intends to combine both pictures. This compromise is well illustrated by Szaniawski's analysis of statistical inferences. It is shown that traditional approaches to the foundations of statistics do not need to be regarded as conflicting with each other. Thus, statistical rules can be treated as rules of behaviour as well as rules of inference. Szaniawski's uniform approach relies on the concept of rationality, analyzed from the point of view of decision theory. Applications of formal tools to the problem of justice and division of goods shows that the concept of rationality has a wider significance. Audience: The book will be of interest to philosophers of science, logicians, ethicists and mathematicians.

Download or read book Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved Drugs written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-07-30 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An estimated 48 percent of the population takes at least one prescription drug in a given month. Drugs provide great benefits to society by saving or improving lives. Many drugs are also associated with side effects or adverse events, some serious and some discovered only after the drug is on the market. The discovery of new adverse events in the postmarketing setting is part of the normal natural history of approved drugs, and timely identification and warning about drug risks are central to the mission of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Not all risks associated with a drug are known at the time of approval, because safety data are collected from studies that involve a relatively small number of human subjects during a relatively short period. Written in response to a request by the FDA, Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved Drugs discusses ethical and informed consent issues in conducting studies in the postmarketing setting. It evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to generate evidence about safety questions, and makes recommendations for appropriate followup studies and randomized clinical trials. The book provides guidance to the FDA on how it should factor in different kinds of evidence in its regulatory decisions. Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved Drugs will be of interest to the pharmaceutical industry, patient advocates, researchers, and consumer groups.

Download or read book Age of Inference written by Philip C. Short and published by IAP. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an age where we are inundated with information, the ability to discern verifiable information to make proper decisions and solve problems is ever more critical. Modern science, which espouses a systematic approach to making “inferences,” requires a certain mindset that allows for a degree of comfort with uncertainty. This book offers inspirations and ideas for cultivating the proper mindset for the studying, teaching, and practicing of science that will be useful for those new to as well as familiar with the field. Although a paradigm shift from traditional instruction is suggested in the National Framework for K-12 science, this volume is intended to help educators develop a personal mental framework in which to transition from a teacher-centered, didactical approach to a student-centered, evidence-guided curriculum. While the topics of the book derive from currently published literature on STEM education as they relate to the National Framework for K-12 Science and the Three-Dimensional science instruction embedded in the Next Generation Science Standards, this book also examines these topics in the context of a new societal age posited as the “Age of Inference” and addresses how to make sense of the ever-increasing deluge of information that we are experiencing by having a scientific and properly discerning mindset. ENDORSEMENTS: "This volume takes on one of the thorniest existential problems of our time, the contradiction between the exponentially growing amount of information that individuals have access to, and the diminished capacity of those individuals to understand it. Its chapters provide the reader with an introduction to the relationship between knowledge, science, and inference; needed new approaches to learning science in our new data rich world; and a discussion of what we can and must do to reduce or eliminate the growing gap between the inference have’s and have nots. It is not too much to say that how we resolve the issues outlined in this volume will determine the future of our species on this planet." — Joseph L. Graves Jr., Professor of Biological Sciences North Carolina A&T State University, Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science: Biological Sciences, Author of: The Emperor’s New Clothes: Biological Theories of Race at the Millennium "Big data is not enough for addressing dangers to the environment or tackling threats to democracy; we need the ability to draw sound inferences from the data. Cultivating a scientific mindset requires fundamental changes to the way we teach and learn. This important and well -written volume shows how." — Ashok Goel, Professor of Computer Science and Human Centered Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology. Editor of AI Magazine Founding Editor of AAAI’s Interactive AI Magazine "If you are a science teacher concerned about the implications of information overload, analysis paralysis, and intellectual complacency on our health, economic future, and democracy, then I recommend this book." — Michael Svec, Professor for Physics and Astronomy Education, Furman University, Fulbright Scholar to Czech Republic

Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Download or read book The Dawn of Cognitive Science written by L. Albertazzi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-02-28 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current debate in cognitive science, from robotics to analysis of vision, deals with problems like the perception of form, the structure and formation of mental images and their modelling, the ecological development of artificial intelligence, and cognitive analysis of natural language. This book presents the core of theories developed in Central Europe between the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries by philosophers, physicists, psychologists and semanticists who shared a dynamic approach and.

Download or read book Blameworthy Belief written by Nikolaj Nottelmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-07-18 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Believing the wrong thing can have drastic consequences. The question of when a person is not only ill-guided, but genuinely at fault for holding a particular belief goes to the root of our understanding of such notions as criminal negligence and moral responsibility. This book explores the conditions under which someone may be deemed blameworthy for holding a particular belief, drawing on contemporary epistemology, ethics and legal scholarship.

Download or read book Decision Making and Modelling in Cognitive Science written by Sisir Roy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-26 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the paradigm of quantum ontology as an appropriate model for measuring cognitive processes. It clearly shows the inadequacy of the application of classical probability theory in modelling the human cognitive domain. The chapters investigate the context dependence and neuronal basis of cognition in a coherent manner. According to this framework, epistemological issues related to decision making and state of mind are seen to be similar to issues related to equanimity and neutral mind, as discussed in Buddhist perspective. The author states that quantum ontology as a modelling tool will help scientists create new methodologies of modelling in other streams of science as well.

Download or read book Logic and Foundations of Mathematics written by Andrea Cantini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IOth International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, which took place in Florence in August 1995, offered a vivid and comprehensive picture of the present state of research in all directions of Logic and Philosophy of Science. The final program counted 51 invited lectures and around 700 contributed papers, distributed in 15 sections. Following the tradition of previous LMPS-meetings, some authors, whose papers aroused particular interest, were invited to submit their works for publication in a collection of selected contributed papers. Due to the large number of interesting contributions, it was decided to split the collection into two distinct volumes: one covering the areas of Logic, Foundations of Mathematics and Computer Science, the other focusing on the general Philosophy of Science and the Foundations of Physics. As a leading choice criterion for the present volume, we tried to combine papers containing relevant technical results in pure and applied logic with papers devoted to conceptual analyses, deeply rooted in advanced present-day research. After all, we believe this is part of the genuine spirit underlying the whole enterprise of LMPS studies.

Download or read book The Limits of Logical Empiricism written by Alfons Keupink and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-30 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects some of the most significant papers of Arthur Pap. Pap’s work played an important role in the development of the analytic tradition. This goes beyond the merely historical fact of Pap’s influential views of dispositional and modal concepts. Pap's writings in philosophy of science, modality, and philosophy of mathematics provide insightful alternative perspectives on philosophical problems of current interest.

Download or read book Collected Papers of Stig Kanger with Essays on his Life and Work written by Ghita Holmström-Hintikka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stig Kanger (1924-1988) made important contributions to logic and formal philosophy. Kanger's dissertation Provability in Logic, 1957, contained significant results in proof theory as well as the first fully worked out model-theoretic interpretation of quantified modal logic. It is generally accepted nowadays that Kanger was one of the originators of possible worlds semantics for modal logic. Kanger's most original achievements were in the areas of general proof theory, the semantics of modal and deontic logic, and the logical analysis of the concept of rights. He also contributed to action theory, preference logic, and the theory of measurement. This is the first of two volumes dedicated to the work of Stig Kanger. The present volume is a complete collection of Kanger's philosophical papers. The second volume contains critical essays on Kanger's work, as well as biographical essays on Kanger written by colleagues and friends.

Download or read book Abductive Reasoning written by Atocha Aliseda and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-16 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abductive Reasoning: Logical Investigations into Discovery and Explanation is a much awaited original contribution to the study of abductive reasoning, providing logical foundations and a rich sample of pertinent applications. Divided into three parts on the conceptual framework, the logical foundations, and the applications, this monograph takes the reader for a comprehensive and erudite tour through the taxonomy of abductive reasoning, via the logical workings of abductive inference ending with applications pertinent to scientific explanation, empirical progress, pragmatism and belief revision.

Download or read book Information Theory Inference and Learning Algorithms written by David J. C. MacKay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-09-25 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information theory and inference, taught together in this exciting textbook, lie at the heart of many important areas of modern technology - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics and cryptography. The book introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. Inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. Uniquely, the book covers state-of-the-art error-correcting codes, including low-density-parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes - the twenty-first-century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, the book is ideal for self-learning, and for undergraduate or graduate courses. It also provides an unparalleled entry point for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering and machine learning.

Download or read book Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science written by Franco Taroni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-09-22 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Networks “This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation.” Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Second Edition Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates diffculties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Download or read book Statistical and Inductive Inference by Minimum Message Length written by C.S. Wallace and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-05-26 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Minimum Message Length (MML) Principle is an information-theoretic approach to induction, hypothesis testing, model selection, and statistical inference. MML, which provides a formal specification for the implementation of Occam's Razor, asserts that the ‘best’ explanation of observed data is the shortest. Further, an explanation is acceptable (i.e. the induction is justified) only if the explanation is shorter than the original data. This book gives a sound introduction to the Minimum Message Length Principle and its applications, provides the theoretical arguments for the adoption of the principle, and shows the development of certain approximations that assist its practical application. MML appears also to provide both a normative and a descriptive basis for inductive reasoning generally, and scientific induction in particular. The book describes this basis and aims to show its relevance to the Philosophy of Science. Statistical and Inductive Inference by Minimum Message Length will be of special interest to graduate students and researchers in Machine Learning and Data Mining, scientists and analysts in various disciplines wishing to make use of computer techniques for hypothesis discovery, statisticians and econometricians interested in the underlying theory of their discipline, and persons interested in the Philosophy of Science. The book could also be used in a graduate-level course in Machine Learning and Estimation and Model-selection, Econometrics and Data Mining. C.S. Wallace was appointed Foundation Chair of Computer Science at Monash University in 1968, at the age of 35, where he worked until his death in 2004. He received an ACM Fellowship in 1995, and was appointed Professor Emeritus in 1996. Professor Wallace made numerous significant contributions to diverse areas of Computer Science, such as Computer Architecture, Simulation and Machine Learning. His final research focused primarily on the Minimum Message Length Principle.

Download or read book Info Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Download or read book Making Health Care Decisions Appendices studies on the foundations of informed consent written by United States. President's Commission for the Study of Ethical Problems in Medicine and Biomedical and Behavioral Research and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Technical Paper Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences written by and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: