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Book Expert Political Judgment

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Book Political Judgement

    Book Details:
  • Author : Richard Bourke
  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release : 2009-08-20
  • ISBN : 052176498X
  • Pages : 363 pages

Download or read book Political Judgement written by Richard Bourke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-20 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading scholars re-examine political judgement, attempting to understand the relationship between political theory and political practice.

Book Political Judgement

Download or read book Political Judgement written by Ronald Beiner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1983. One of the basic capacities of man as a political being is his faculty of judgement. Yet for all the books on concepts like freedom, equality and authority, surprisingly little attention has been given to this topic in the tradition of Western political thought. What is the nature of political judgement? What endows us, as human beings, with the ability to make reasonable judgements about human affairs and to judge the common world we share with others? By what means to we secure validity for our judgements? What are the underlying conditions of this human capacity, and what implications does it have the understanding of politics? These questions, central as they are to any reflection on politics have rarely been addressed in a systematic way. This book examines Kant’s concept of taste and Aristotle’s concept of prudence, as well as recent works of political philosophy by Arendt, Gadamer and Habermas, all crucially influenced by Kant and Aristotle.

Book Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment

Download or read book Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment written by George E. Marcus and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2000-10 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work draws on research in neuroscience, physiology, and experimental psychology to conceptualize habit and reason as two mental states that interact in a delicate, highly functional balance controlled by emotion. It sheds light on a range of political behaviour, including party identification.

Book The Concept of Political Judgment

Download or read book The Concept of Political Judgment written by Peter J. Steinberger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1993-09-15 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Steinberger's conclusion--that a coherent political society must also be a judgmental one--flies in the face of much contemporary thinking.

Book A Democratic Theory of Judgment

Download or read book A Democratic Theory of Judgment written by Linda M.G. Zerilli and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-12-12 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sweeping look at political and philosophical history, Linda M. G. Zerilli unpacks the tightly woven core of Hannah Arendt’s unfinished work on a tenacious modern problem: how to judge critically in the wake of the collapse of inherited criteria of judgment. Engaging a remarkable breadth of thinkers, including Ludwig Wittgenstein, Leo Strauss, Immanuel Kant, Frederick Douglass, John Rawls, Jürgen Habermas, Martha Nussbaum, and many others, Zerilli clears a hopeful path between an untenable universalism and a cultural relativism that forever defers the possibility of judging at all. Zerilli deftly outlines the limitations of existing debates, both those that concern themselves with the impossibility of judging across cultures and those that try to find transcendental, rational values to anchor judgment. Looking at Kant through the lens of Arendt, Zerilli develops the notion of a public conception of truth, and from there she explores relativism, historicism, and universalism as they shape feminist approaches to judgment. Following Arendt even further, Zerilli arrives at a hopeful new pathway—seeing the collapse of philosophical criteria for judgment not as a problem but a way to practice judgment anew as a world-building activity of democratic citizens. The result is an astonishing theoretical argument that travels through—and goes beyond—some of the most important political thought of the modern period.

Book The Sense of Reality

    Book Details:
  • Author : Isaiah Berlin
  • Publisher : Macmillan
  • Release : 1998-12-26
  • ISBN : 0374525692
  • Pages : 306 pages

Download or read book The Sense of Reality written by Isaiah Berlin and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 1998-12-26 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays discuss realism in history, political judgment, the impact of Marxism, and the origins of nationalism.

Book Political Judgment

Download or read book Political Judgment written by Milton Lodge and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 658 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How are impressions about political candidates organized in memory? What is the nature of political group stereotypes? How do citizens make voting decisions? How do citizens formulate opinions about key issues and politics? The contributors to Political Judgment: Structure and Process reach answers to these questions that will substantially influence how the next generation of scholars working at the intersection of political science and sociology, and public opinion researchers more generally, go about their work.

Book Becoming Political

    Book Details:
  • Author : Christopher Skeaff
  • Publisher : University of Chicago Press
  • Release : 2018-06-25
  • ISBN : 022655550X
  • Pages : 189 pages

Download or read book Becoming Political written by Christopher Skeaff and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this pathbreaking work, Christopher Skeaff argues that a profoundly democratic conception of judgment is at the heart of Spinoza’s thought. Bridging Continental and Anglo-American scholarship, critical theory, and Spinoza studies, Becoming Political offers a historically sensitive, meticulous, and creative interpretation of Spinoza’s texts that reveals judgment as the communal element by which people generate power to resist domination and reconfigure the terms of their political association. If, for Spinoza, judging is the activity which makes a people powerful, it is because it enables them to contest the project of ruling and demonstrate the political possibility of being equally free to articulate the terms of their association. This proposition differs from a predominant contemporary line of argument that treats the people’s judgment as a vehicle of sovereignty—a means of defining and refining the common will. By recuperating in Spinoza’s thought a “vital republicanism,” Skeaff illuminates a line of political thinking that decouples democracy from the majoritarian aspiration to rule and aligns it instead with the project of becoming free and equal judges of common affairs. As such, this decoupling raises questions that ordinarily go unasked: what calls for political judgment, and who is to judge? In Spinoza’s vital republicanism, the political potential of life and law finds an affirmative relationship that signals the way toward a new constitutionalism and jurisprudence of the common.

Book Rethinking Political Judgement

Download or read book Rethinking Political Judgement written by Masa Mrovlje and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-31 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we reinvigorate the human capacity for political judgement in our uncertain post-foundational world? This book takes up the challenge by calling on 20th-century existentialism, in particular the works of Jean-Paul Sartre, Simone de Beauvoir, Albert Camus and Hannah Arendt.

Book Political Judgment

Download or read book Political Judgment written by Ronald Beiner and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Power  Judgment and Political Evil

Download or read book Power Judgment and Political Evil written by Danielle Celermajer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-08 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an interview with Günther Gaus for German television in 1964, Hannah Arendt insisted that she was not a philosopher but a political theorist. Disillusioned by the cooperation of German intellectuals with the Nazis, she said farewell to philosophy when she fled the country. This book examines Arendt's ideas about thinking, acting and political responsibility, investigating the relationship between the life of the mind and the life of action that preoccupied Arendt throughout her life. By joining in the conversation between Arendt and Gaus, each contributor probes her ideas about thinking and judging and their relation to responsibility, power and violence. An insightful and intelligent treatment of the work of Hannah Arendt, this volume will appeal to a wide number of fields beyond political theory and philosophy, including law, literary studies, social anthropology and cultural history.

Book The Specter of Babel

    Book Details:
  • Author : Michael J. Thompson
  • Publisher : State University of New York Press
  • Release : 2020-11-01
  • ISBN : 1438480377
  • Pages : 475 pages

Download or read book The Specter of Babel written by Michael J. Thompson and published by State University of New York Press. This book was released on 2020-11-01 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an age of rising groupthink, reactionary populism, social conformity, and democratic deficit, political judgment in modern society has reached a state of crisis. In The Specter of Babel, Michael J. Thompson offers a critical reconstruction of the concept of political judgment that can help resuscitate critical citizenship and democratic life. At the center of the book are two arguments. The first is that modern practical and political philosophy has made a postmetaphysical turn that is unable to guard against the effects of social power on consciousness and the deliberative powers of citizens. The second is that an alternative path toward a critical social ontology can provide a framework for a new theory of ethics and politics. This critical social ontology looks at human sociality not as mere intersubjectivity or communication, but rather as constituted by the shapes that our social-relational structures take as well as the kinds of purposes and ends toward which our social lives are organized. Only by calling these into question, Thompson boldly argues, can we once again attempt to revitalize social critique and democratic politics.

Book Philosophy and Real Politics

Download or read book Philosophy and Real Politics written by Raymond Geuss and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2024-06-25 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A trenchant critique of established ideas in political philosophy and a provocative call for change Many contemporary political thinkers are gripped by the belief that their task is to develop an ideal theory of rights or justice for guiding and judging political actions. But in Philosophy and Real Politics, Raymond Geuss argues that philosophers should first try to understand why real political actors behave as they actually do. Far from being applied ethics, politics is a skill that allows people to survive and pursue their goals. To understand politics is to understand the powers, motives, and concepts that people have and that shape how they deal with the problems they face in their particular historical situations. Philosophy and Real Politics both outlines a historically oriented, realistic political philosophy and criticizes liberal political philosophies based on abstract conceptions of rights and justice.

Book The Scandal of Reason

Download or read book The Scandal of Reason written by Albena Azmanova and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2012-03-27 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theories of justice are haunted by a paradox: the more ambitious the theory of justice, the less applicable and useful the model is to political practice; yet the more politically realistic the theory, the weaker its moral ambition, rendering it unsound and equally useless. Brokering a resolution to this "judgment paradox," Albena Azmanova advances a "critical consensus model" of judgment that serves the normative ideals of a just society without the help of ideal theory. Tracing the evolution of two major traditions in political philosophy—critical theory and philosophical liberalism—and the way they confront the judgment paradox, Azmanova critiques prevailing models of deliberative democracy and their preference for ideal theory over political applicability. Instead, she replaces the reliance on normative models of democracy with an account of the dynamics of reasoned judgment produced in democratic practices of open dialogues. Combining Hannah Arendt's study of judgment with Pierre Bourdieu's social critique of power relations, and incorporating elements of political epistemology from Kant, Wittgenstein, H. L. A. Hart, Max Weber, and American philosophical pragmatism, Azmanova centers her inquiry on the way participants in moral conflicts attribute meaning to their grievances of injustice. She then demonstrates the emancipatory potential of the model of critical deliberative judgment she forges and its capacity to guide policy making. This model's critical force yields from its capacity to disclose the common structural sources of injustice behind conflicting claims to justice. Moving beyond the conflict between universalist and pluralist positions, Azmanova grounds the question of "what is justice?" in the empirical reality of "who suffers?" in order to discern attainable possibilities for a less unjust world.

Book The Politics of Sincerity

Download or read book The Politics of Sincerity written by Elizabeth Markovits and published by Penn State Press. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A growing frustration with “spin doctors,” doublespeak, and outright lying by public officials has resulted in a deep public cynicism regarding politics today. It has also led many voters to seek out politicians who engage in “straight talk,” out of a hope that sincerity signifies a dedication to the truth. While this is an understandable reaction to the degradation of public discourse inflicted by political hype, Elizabeth Markovits argues that the search for sincerity in the public arena actually constitutes a dangerous distraction from more important concerns, including factual truth and the ethical import of political statements. Her argument takes her back to an examination of the Greek notion of parrhesia (frank speech), and she draws from her study of the Platonic dialogues a nuanced understanding of this ancient analogue of “straight talk.” She shows Plato to have an appreciation for rhetoric rather than a desire to purge it from public life, providing insights into the ways it can contribute to a fruitful form of deliberative democracy today.

Book Judgment  Imagination  and Politics

Download or read book Judgment Imagination and Politics written by Jennifer Nedelsky and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2001-07-20 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judgment, Imagination, and Politics brings together for the first time leading essays on the nature of judgment. Drawing from themes in Kant's Critique of Judgment and Hannah Arendt's discussion of judgment from Lectures on Kant's Political Philosophy, these essays deal with: the role of imagination in judgment; judgment as a distinct human faculty; the nature of judgment in law and politics; and the many puzzles that arise from the 'enlarged mentality,' the capacity to consider the perspectives of others that aren't in Kant treated as essential to judgment.