Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Download or read book Political Judgement written by Richard Bourke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-20 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading scholars re-examine political judgement, attempting to understand the relationship between political theory and political practice.
Download or read book Political Judgement written by Ronald Beiner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1983. One of the basic capacities of man as a political being is his faculty of judgement. Yet for all the books on concepts like freedom, equality and authority, surprisingly little attention has been given to this topic in the tradition of Western political thought. What is the nature of political judgement? What endows us, as human beings, with the ability to make reasonable judgements about human affairs and to judge the common world we share with others? By what means to we secure validity for our judgements? What are the underlying conditions of this human capacity, and what implications does it have the understanding of politics? These questions, central as they are to any reflection on politics have rarely been addressed in a systematic way. This book examines Kant’s concept of taste and Aristotle’s concept of prudence, as well as recent works of political philosophy by Arendt, Gadamer and Habermas, all crucially influenced by Kant and Aristotle.
Download or read book Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment written by George E. Marcus and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2000-10 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work draws on research in neuroscience, physiology, and experimental psychology to conceptualize habit and reason as two mental states that interact in a delicate, highly functional balance controlled by emotion. It sheds light on a range of political behaviour, including party identification.
Download or read book The Concept of Political Judgment written by Peter J. Steinberger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1993-09-15 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Steinberger's conclusion--that a coherent political society must also be a judgmental one--flies in the face of much contemporary thinking.
Download or read book Becoming Political written by Christopher Skeaff and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this pathbreaking work, Christopher Skeaff argues that a profoundly democratic conception of judgment is at the heart of Spinoza’s thought. Bridging Continental and Anglo-American scholarship, critical theory, and Spinoza studies, Becoming Political offers a historically sensitive, meticulous, and creative interpretation of Spinoza’s texts that reveals judgment as the communal element by which people generate power to resist domination and reconfigure the terms of their political association. If, for Spinoza, judging is the activity which makes a people powerful, it is because it enables them to contest the project of ruling and demonstrate the political possibility of being equally free to articulate the terms of their association. This proposition differs from a predominant contemporary line of argument that treats the people’s judgment as a vehicle of sovereignty—a means of defining and refining the common will. By recuperating in Spinoza’s thought a “vital republicanism,” Skeaff illuminates a line of political thinking that decouples democracy from the majoritarian aspiration to rule and aligns it instead with the project of becoming free and equal judges of common affairs. As such, this decoupling raises questions that ordinarily go unasked: what calls for political judgment, and who is to judge? In Spinoza’s vital republicanism, the political potential of life and law finds an affirmative relationship that signals the way toward a new constitutionalism and jurisprudence of the common.
Download or read book Power Judgment and Political Evil written by Danielle Celermajer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-08 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an interview with Günther Gaus for German television in 1964, Hannah Arendt insisted that she was not a philosopher but a political theorist. Disillusioned by the cooperation of German intellectuals with the Nazis, she said farewell to philosophy when she fled the country. This book examines Arendt's ideas about thinking, acting and political responsibility, investigating the relationship between the life of the mind and the life of action that preoccupied Arendt throughout her life. By joining in the conversation between Arendt and Gaus, each contributor probes her ideas about thinking and judging and their relation to responsibility, power and violence. An insightful and intelligent treatment of the work of Hannah Arendt, this volume will appeal to a wide number of fields beyond political theory and philosophy, including law, literary studies, social anthropology and cultural history.
Download or read book Political Judgment written by Milton Lodge and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 658 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How are impressions about political candidates organized in memory? What is the nature of political group stereotypes? How do citizens make voting decisions? How do citizens formulate opinions about key issues and politics? The contributors to Political Judgment: Structure and Process reach answers to these questions that will substantially influence how the next generation of scholars working at the intersection of political science and sociology, and public opinion researchers more generally, go about their work.
Download or read book The Sense of Reality written by Isaiah Berlin and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 1998-12-26 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays discuss realism in history, political judgment, the impact of Marxism, and the origins of nationalism.
Download or read book The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion written by John Zaller and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992-08-28 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 1992 book explains how people acquire political information from elites and the mass media and convert it into political preferences.
Download or read book A Democratic Theory of Judgment written by Linda M.G. Zerilli and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-12-12 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sweeping look at political and philosophical history, Linda M. G. Zerilli unpacks the tightly woven core of Hannah Arendt’s unfinished work on a tenacious modern problem: how to judge critically in the wake of the collapse of inherited criteria of judgment. Engaging a remarkable breadth of thinkers, including Ludwig Wittgenstein, Leo Strauss, Immanuel Kant, Frederick Douglass, John Rawls, Jürgen Habermas, Martha Nussbaum, and many others, Zerilli clears a hopeful path between an untenable universalism and a cultural relativism that forever defers the possibility of judging at all. Zerilli deftly outlines the limitations of existing debates, both those that concern themselves with the impossibility of judging across cultures and those that try to find transcendental, rational values to anchor judgment. Looking at Kant through the lens of Arendt, Zerilli develops the notion of a public conception of truth, and from there she explores relativism, historicism, and universalism as they shape feminist approaches to judgment. Following Arendt even further, Zerilli arrives at a hopeful new pathway—seeing the collapse of philosophical criteria for judgment not as a problem but a way to practice judgment anew as a world-building activity of democratic citizens. The result is an astonishing theoretical argument that travels through—and goes beyond—some of the most important political thought of the modern period.
Download or read book Criminal Liability of Political Decision Makers written by Frank Zimmermann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-28 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is dedicated to a fundamental conflict in modern states: those persons holding public office are no more than ordinary citizens. Therefore, their activities must – as a matter of principle – be subject to full judicial control. But at the same time, democratically legitimated politicians need some discretion in their decision-making. Allegations of politicians committing criminal offences in office quickly attract a great deal of media attention. Even politicians themselves frequently use such allegations to discredit their political opponents. However, to date this topic has not been fully addressed on an academic level. This book is a first step in this direction. The individual contributions cover topics such as: “bad” political decisions that result in a waste of taxpayers’ money corruption and conflicts of interest in political decision-making immunities and procedural obstacles to the effective prosecution of politicians abuse of criminal law and criminal proceedings in the political arena criminal liability for decisions taken in situations of state emergency the role of criminal law in public opinion. Leading experts examine these and other issues from a comparative perspective.
Download or read book Rethinking Political Judgement written by Masa Mrovlje and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-31 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we reinvigorate the human capacity for political judgement in our uncertain post-foundational world? This book takes up the challenge by calling on 20th-century existentialism, in particular the works of Jean-Paul Sartre, Simone de Beauvoir, Albert Camus and Hannah Arendt.
Download or read book Political Judgement written by Ronald Beiner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1983. One of the basic capacities of man as a political being is his faculty of judgement. Yet for all the books on concepts like freedom, equality and authority, surprisingly little attention has been given to this topic in the tradition of Western political thought. What is the nature of political judgement? What endows us, as human beings, with the ability to make reasonable judgements about human affairs and to judge the common world we share with others? By what means to we secure validity for our judgements? What are the underlying conditions of this human capacity, and what implications does it have the understanding of politics? These questions, central as they are to any reflection on politics have rarely been addressed in a systematic way. This book examines Kant’s concept of taste and Aristotle’s concept of prudence, as well as recent works of political philosophy by Arendt, Gadamer and Habermas, all crucially influenced by Kant and Aristotle.
Download or read book The Judge and the Spectator written by Joke Johannetta Hermsen and published by Peeters Publishers. This book was released on 1999 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since early texts as "Thinking and Politics", Arendt had highlighted the contrast between philosophical and political thinking and compelled herself to find a satisfactory answer to the question: "how do philosophy and politics relate?". In her last work "Lectures on Kant's Political Philosophy" (1982), Arendt analyses the "political" dimensions of Kant's critical thinking. To think critically implies taking the viewpoints of others into account: one has to "enlarge" one's own mind by comparing our judgement with the possible judgements of others. While thinking remains a solitary activity, it does not cut itself off from all others.The essays in this book address the philosophical and moral questions raised by Arendt's attempt to draw out the political implications of "critical thinking" in Kant's sense. In one way or another, they all address the place of judgment in Arendt's thought. Arendt's turn to Kant and The Critique of Judgment was motivated by her desire to find a form of philosophizing that was not hostile to politics and the public realm. But did she really think that Kant's characterization of the judging spectator pointed the way out of the opposition between the universal and the particular, between looking at things sub specie aeternitatis and looking at things from a political point of view? To what extent did she think that Kant was successful in revealing a mode of thought oriented towards public persuasion, yet one which retained its critical independence?Each of the essays wrestles with the complexities of a complex thinker. They remind us that critical thinking or Selbstdenken is among the most difficult and rare arts, even though it is an art potentially accessible to everyone. They also remind us that Hannah Arendt was a virtuoso of this art, and of how her example points the way toward a renewal of judgment as the political faculty par excellence.
Download or read book Philosophy and Real Politics written by Raymond Geuss and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2024-06-25 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A trenchant critique of established ideas in political philosophy and a provocative call for change Many contemporary political thinkers are gripped by the belief that their task is to develop an ideal theory of rights or justice for guiding and judging political actions. But in Philosophy and Real Politics, Raymond Geuss argues that philosophers should first try to understand why real political actors behave as they actually do. Far from being applied ethics, politics is a skill that allows people to survive and pursue their goals. To understand politics is to understand the powers, motives, and concepts that people have and that shape how they deal with the problems they face in their particular historical situations. Philosophy and Real Politics both outlines a historically oriented, realistic political philosophy and criticizes liberal political philosophies based on abstract conceptions of rights and justice.
Download or read book The Rationalizing Voter written by Milton Lodge and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political behavior is the result of innumerable unnoticed forces and conscious deliberation is often a rationalization of automatically triggered feelings and thoughts. Citizens are very sensitive to environmental contextual factors such as the title 'President' preceding 'Obama' in a newspaper headline, upbeat music or patriotic symbols accompanying a campaign ad, or question wording and order in a survey, all of which have their greatest influence when citizens are unaware. This book develops and tests a dual-process theory of political beliefs, attitudes and behavior, claiming that all thinking, feeling, reasoning and doing have an automatic component as well as a conscious deliberative component. The authors are especially interested in the impact of automatic feelings on political judgments and evaluations. This research is based on laboratory experiments, which allow the testing of five basic hypotheses: hot cognition, automaticity, affect transfer, affect contagion and motivated reasoning.
