Download or read book On Insurance Risk Models with Correlated Classes of Business written by Xueyuan Wu (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Insurance Risk Models with Correlated Classes of Business written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: (Uncorrected OCR) Abstract of the thesis entitled ON INSURANCE RISK MODELS WITH CORRELATED CLASSES OF BUSINESS submitted by Wu Xueyuan for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in February 2004 In this thesis, we focus on ruin analysis of risk models wIth correlated classes of insurance business. Specifically, five risk models with different dependence relations between classes are introduced. For these models, various problems related to ruin probability are considered. vVe first study a continuous-time correlated aggregate clmms model with Poisson and Erlang risk processes. In this model, we assume that two classes of business are correlated through a common Erlang component in thelf claim-number processes. We derive an explicit expression for the mfimte-time survival probability of the assumed model when claim SIzes are exponentially distributed. For general claim-size distributions, we obtain some result for the infinite-time ruin probabIlIty, and present a numerical method for evaluating the probability of rum. Based on the continuous-tIme model of Yuen and "Vang (2002) with thin- ning correlatIOn, we propose a new dependence relatIOn with interaction between classes of business in the discrete-time case. Two dIscrete-time risk models with such a relation of dependence are studied. For the first interaction model: we investIgate the statIstical properties of the aggregate claIms for a family of claimnumber distributions. \Ve also compare the model with other existing models with correlated aggregate claIms in terms of the finite-time and infimte-time ruin probabllitles. The second model extends the interaction dependence to the case of the compound binomlal model with delayed claims. For this model, we develop a recursive method to compute the finite-time survival probabilities: and derive an explicit expression for the infinite-time survival probability in a special case. The last two risk models proposed in this thesis are the biva.
Download or read book RUIN ANALYSIS OF CORRELATED AG written by Lai-Mei Wan and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Ruin Analysis of Correlated Aggregate Claims Models" by Lai-mei, Wan, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled RUIN ANALYSIS OF CORRELATED AGGREGATE CLAIMS MODELS Submitted by WAN LAI MEI for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in January 2005 In recent years, study of risk models with dependent classes of insurance business has become a popular topic in actuarial science. The main theme of this the- sis is to explore more general models which include various types of dependence structures among classes in a book of insurance business. Specifically, ruin anal- ysis was performed on two correlated aggregate claims models for a book of m (m>= 2) dependent classes of insurance business. Firstly, a discrete-time risk model was considered with m dependent classes of business in which a time-series approach was adopted. The claim processes of the m classes were assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. In this framework, different classes were dependent due to the time-series structure and the correlation among current claims. The probability of ruin for the risk model was studied. In the case of m = 2, simulation studiesfor absolutely continuous bivariate exponential (ACBVE) claim distribution and bivariate gamma claim distribution were performed. Next, a continuous-time risk model with m dependent classes of insurance business was investigated. The claim-number processes of the m classes were correlated due to the so-called thinning dependence together with a common shock. Various aspects of the proposed model were examined, and the impact of therelationofdependenceviatheadjustmentcoefficientwasthenstudied. Inthe bivariate case (m = 2), a numerical study was performed for exponential claim distribution and simulation studies were carried out for non-exponential claim distributions. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3070570 Subjects: Risk (Insurance) Probabilities Insurance claims - Mathematical models Insurance - Mathematics
Download or read book Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Rating written by Mark Goldburd and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Securitized Insurance Risk written by Michael Himick and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-09-29 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Securitized Insurance Risk is one of the first books to focus exclusively on the convergence of the insurance and financial markets in risk management and the emergence of insurance risk as a non-correlated asset class. Written for insurers and investors alike, this book explores the opportunities available to forward-looking risk and investment managers. Chapters by prominent experts specifically address: the win-win principle behind securitizing insurance risk; current structures, including catastrophe bonds, structured notes, catastrophe options, and swaps; partnering financial market tools with traditional reinsurance programs; holding insurance risk, uncorrelated with stocks and bonds; pricing insurance risk instruments and evaluating basic risk; and regulatory and accounting concerns.
Download or read book Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks written by Michel Denuit and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk. * Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks. * Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association. * Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models. * Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings. * Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers. * Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website. An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities written by S?ren Asmussen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramr?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.
Download or read book Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products written by Shadreck Mapfumo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2017-04-13 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Named peril index insurance has great potential to address unmet risk management needs for agricultural insurance in developing economies, potentially contributing to increased agricultural sustainability and improved food security. However, the development and appraisal of index insurance business lines is not without challenges. Insurers must rigorously evaluate the quality of the products they offer and take care to ensure that distributors and policyholders understand the benefits and limits of the purchased coverage. Without these important steps to ensure responsible insurance practices, insurers can damage the implementation and potential of index insurance in the market. Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products: A Guide for Practitioners helps stakeholders in the named peril index insurance industry appraise new and existing products. Part 1 of the guide provides a summary of the insights and decisions required for the insurer to make an informed decision to launch and expand an index insurance business line. Insurance managers are the primary audience for part 1. Part 2 provides a step-by-step guide to calculating the decision metrics used by the insurance manager in part 1. These metrics are calculated using probabilistic modeling that provides insights into risks related to the index insurance product. Actuarial analysts are the primary audience for part 2. In an increasingly competitive insurance market, creative product development and imaginative business strategies are becoming the norm. This guide will help emerging market insurers who seek to stay on the cutting edge to successfully and sustainably penetrate new market segments.
Download or read book Correlation Risk Modeling and Management written by Gunter Meissner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thorough guide to correlation risk and its growing importance in global financial markets Ideal for anyone studying for CFA, PRMIA, CAIA, or other certifications, Correlation Risk Modeling and Management is the first rigorous guide to the topic of correlation risk. A relatively overlooked type of risk until it caused major unexpected losses during the financial crisis of 2007 through 2009, correlation risk has become a major focus of the risk management departments in major financial institutions, particularly since Basel III specifically addressed correlation risk with new regulations. This offers a rigorous explanation of the topic, revealing new and updated approaches to modelling and risk managing correlation risk. Offers comprehensive coverage of a topic of increasing importance in the financial world Includes the Basel III correlation framework Features interactive models in Excel/VBA, an accompanying website with further materials, and problems and questions at the end of each chapter
Download or read book Automobile Insurance written by Jean Lemaire and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mathematical theory of non-life insurance developed much later than the theory of life insurance. The problems that occur in the former field are far more intricate for several reasons: 1. In the field oflife insurance, the company usually has to pay a claim on the policy only once: the insured dies or the policy matures only once. It is with only a few particular types of policy (for instance, sickness insurance, when the insured starts working again after a period of sickness) that a valid claim can be made on a number of different occasions. On the other hand, the general rule in non-life insurance is that the policyholder is liable to be the victim of several losses (in automobile insurance, of course, but also in burglary and fire insurance, householders' comprehensive insurance, and so on). 2. In the field of life insurance, the amount to be paid by the company excluding any bonuses-is determined at the inception of the policy. For the various types of life insurance contracts, the sum payable on death or at maturity of the policy is known in advance. In the field of non-life insurance, the amount of a loss is a random variable: the cost of an automobile crash, the partial or totalloss of a building as a result of fire, the number and nature of injuries, and so forth.
Download or read book Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information written by MissLiliana Schumacher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for modeling correlated systemic solvency and liquidity risks for a banking system. Using a forward looking simulation of many risk factors applied to detailed balance sheets for a 10 bank stylized United States banking system, we analyze correlated market and credit risk and estimate the probability that multiple banks will fail or experience liquidity runs simultaneously. Significant systemic risk factors are shown to include financial and economic environment regime shifts to stressful conditions, poor initial loan credit quality, loan portfolio sector and regional concentrations, bank creditors' sensitivity to and uncertainties regarding solvency risk, and inadequate capital. Systemic banking system solvency risk is driven by the correlated defaults of many borrowers, other market risks, and inter-bank defaults. Liquidity runs are modeled as a response to elevated solvency risk and uncertainties and are shown to increase correlated bank failures. Potential bank funding outflows and contractions in lending with significant real economic impacts are estimated. Increases in equity capital levels needed to reduce bank solvency and liquidity risk levels to a target confidence level are also estimated to range from 3 percent to 20 percent of assets. For a future environment that replicates the 1987-2006 volatilities and correlations, we find only a small risk of U.S. bank failures focused on thinly capitalized and regionally concentrated smaller banks. For the 2007-2010 financial environment calibration we find substantially elevated solvency and liquidity risks for all banks and the banking system.
Download or read book Correlations Between Insurance Lines of Business written by Benjamin Avanzi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is concerned with dependency between business segments in the Property & Casualty industry. When considering the business of an insurance company at the aggregate level, dependence structures can have a major impact in several areas of Enterprise Risk Management, such as in claims reserving and capital modelling. The accurate estimation of the diversification benefits related to the dependence structures between lines of business ("LoBs") is crucial for (i) capital efficiency, as one should avoid holding unnecessarily high levels of capital, and (ii) solvency of the insurance company, as an underestimation, on the other hand, may lead to insufficient capitalisation and safety.There seems to be a great deal of preconception as to how dependent insurance claims should be. Often, presence of dependence is taken as a given and rarely discussed or challenged, perhaps because of the lack of extensive dataset to be publicly analysed. In this paper, we take a different approach, and consider how much correlation some real data sets actually display (the Meyers-Shi dataset from the USA, and the AUSI dataset from Australia). We develop a simple theoretical framework that enables us to explain how and why correlations can be illusory (and what we mean by that). We show with some real examples that, sometimes, most (if not all) of the correlation can be 'explained' by an appropriate methodology. Two major conclusions stem from our analysis: 1. In any attempt to measure cross-LoB correlations, careful modelling of the data needs to be the order of the day. The exercise will not be well served by rough modelling, such as the use of simple chain ladders, and may indeed result in the prescription of excessive risk margins and/or capital margins. 2. Such empirical evidence as examined in the paper reveals cross-LoB correlations that vary only in the range zero to very modest. There is little evidence in favour of the high correlation assumed in some jurisdictions. The evidence suggests that these assumptions derived from either poor modelling or a misconception of the cross-LoB dependencies relevant to the purpose to which they are applied.
Download or read book Stochastic Orders in Reliability and Risk written by Haijun Li and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-22 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Orders in Reliability and Risk Management is composed of 19 contributions on the theory of stochastic orders, stochastic comparison of order statistics, stochastic orders in reliability and risk analysis, and applications. These review/exploratory chapters present recent and current research on stochastic orders reported at the International Workshop on Stochastic Orders in Reliability and Risk Management, or SORR2011, which took place in the City Hotel, Xiamen, China, from June 27 to June 29, 2011. The conference’s talks and invited contributions also represent the celebration of Professor Moshe Shaked, who has made comprehensive, fundamental contributions to the theory of stochastic orders and its applications in reliability, queueing modeling, operations research, economics and risk analysis. This volume is in honor of Professor Moshe Shaked. The work presented in this volume represents active research on stochastic orders and multivariate dependence, and exemplifies close collaborations between scholars working in different fields. The Xiamen Workshop and this volume seek to revive the community workshop tradition on stochastic orders and dependence and strengthen research collaboration, while honoring the work of a distinguished scholar.
Download or read book On Discrete Time Risk Models with Dependence Based on Integer Valued Time Series Processes written by Jiahui Li and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "On Discrete-time Risk Models With Dependence Based on Integer-valued Time Series Processes" by Jiahui, Li, 黎嘉慧, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In the actuarial literature, dependence structures in risk models have been extensively studied. The main theme of this thesis is to investigate some discrete-time risk models with claim numbers modeled by integer-valued time series processes. The first model is a common shock risk model with temporal dependence between the claim numbers in each individual class of business. Specifically the Poisson MA(1) process and Poisson AR(1) process are considered for the temporal dependence. To study the ruin probability, the equations associated with the adjustment coefficients are derived. Comparisons are also made to assess the impact of the dependence structures on the ruin probability. Another model involving both the correlated classes of business and the time series approach is then studied. Thinning dependence structure is adopted to model the dependence among classes of business. The Poisson MA(1) and Poisson AR(1) processes are used to describe the claim-number processes. Adjustment coefficients and ruin probabilities are examined. Finally a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following a Poisson ARCH process is proposed. In this model, the mean of the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the effect of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on several risk measures including ruin probability, Value at Risk, and conditional tail expectation. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4852187 Subjects: Time-series analysis Risk (Insurance) - Statistical methods
Download or read book Information Computing and Applications Part I written by Rongbo Zhu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-06 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the International Conference on Information Computing and Applications, held in Tangshan, China, in October 2010.
Download or read book Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 750 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Marshall Olkin Distributions Advances in Theory and Applications written by Umberto Cherubini and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-01 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest advances in the theory and practice of Marshall-Olkin distributions. These distributions have been increasingly applied in statistical practice in recent years, as they make it possible to describe interesting features of stochastic models like non-exchangeability, tail dependencies and the presence of a singular component. The book presents cutting-edge contributions in this research area, with a particular emphasis on financial and economic applications. It is recommended for researchers working in applied probability and statistics, as well as for practitioners interested in the use of stochastic models in economics. This volume collects selected contributions from the conference “Marshall-Olkin Distributions: Advances in Theory and Applications,” held in Bologna on October 2-3, 2013.
