Download or read book Oil the Economy and the Stock Market written by Joseph H. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the time-varying effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, and global equity markets. While the first-round impact of oil-price shocks on U.S. economic growth has not changed materially over time, their formerly-negative second-round effects are notably absent over the past 25 years given oil's near-zero impact on long-term inflation expectations. Since oil-price shocks now represent a less-stagflationary policy tradeoff, we show why the Federal Reserve should lower short-term interest rates in response to an oil-price shock under certain (but not all) macro scenarios. For domestic and international stocks, simple regressions reveal the anticipated inverse relationship, with a 10% increase in oil prices associated with a statistically significant 1.5% lower total return. However, the stock market's reaction varies dramatically depending on the source of the oil-price shock, with global stocks - in particular the industrial and materials sectors - responding quite favorably to oil-price increases attributed to global-demand shocks. A key implication is that oil-price increases do not uniformly lead to lower stock returns. Interestingly, our oil-price decomposition suggests that oil's recent surge cannot be explained by supply disruptions, global demand fundamentals, or the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
Download or read book Oil s Endless Bid written by Dan Dicker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert analysis of rising oil prices and the out-of-control oil markets that jeopardize both national security and the economy The price of oil is negatively impacting both companies and consumers. In Oil's Endless Bid: Taming the Unreliable Price of Energy to Secure Our Economy, energy analyst Dan Dicker recalls his experiences as an oil trader and reveals the changes that have taken place in the oil markets during the past twenty years, and particularly the last five, as investment banks, energy hedge funds, and managed futures funds have come to dominate energy trading and wreak havoc on prices. Reveals why oil prices cannot stabilize without dramatic action on the part of both government and business Details how the novel, but wrong, idea of oil as an asset class took a sleepy, club-like market into the national spotlight Describes how the United States is unnecessarily handing its wealth over to foreign oil producers during a time when the potential supply of oil is greater than ever Written by an industry insider, Oil's Endless Bid analyzes the biggest financial story of the last ten years?how we lost control of our oil markets.
Download or read book Coronavirus Outbreak and the Great Lockdown written by Bhaskar Bagchi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book captures the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices and major stock indices as well as the crude oil prices and stock market volatility that have been caused due to outbreak of this pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world melodramatically and major world markets collapsed in the beginning, affecting major industries in an unprecedented way. The book will be useful to the researcher in the field of finance and economics, and policy makers both at government and private level, keeping in view the present state of economy throughout the world.
Download or read book Oil Prices and the U S Economy written by Willem Thorbecke and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Download or read book The Correlation Between Physical and Financial Crude Oil Markets written by Johannes Sailer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1,6, Humboldt-University of Berlin (School of Business and Economics ), course: Power Games in Energy Markets, language: English, abstract: Crude oil is currently the most important source of energy in the world. Thanks to advanced production and extraction methods, and due to new discoveries, the available reserves have grown over the last ten years. During this period of time, oil prices rose considerably. These increases in price are associated with the increasing energy demands of growing economies across the planet and a shifting of weight between the physical and financial oil market. The goal of this work is to examine the correlation between physical and financial crude oil markets as well as establish an explanation for the drastic increase in crude oil price in the past decade. The work is organized as follows: To begin, the characteristics of crude oil as well as its value chain are presented and examined. This is followed by an explanation of the physical and financial oil trade. To conclude, the fundamentals of the world oil market and the financial oil trade are examined to determine the relevance of causation with respect to the recent price increase.
Download or read book stock market development and long run growth written by Ross Levine and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1996 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Irreversibility Uncertainty and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.
Download or read book The Oil Factor written by Stephen Leeb and published by Business Plus. This book was released on 2004-02-12 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A storm is coming, a turbulent new era in which oil prices will soar and inflation will sky-rocket. In this important new book, two leading financial strategists show you how to ride out the tempest while still capturing impressive investment returns... It's the oil, stupid. For the last thirty years, the price of oil has been the single most important determinant of the world economy. But now most geologists concur that the planet's supply of cheaply extractable oil, the traditional fuel that powers growth, will shortly be overtaken by demand. In the coming global turbulence, oil prices will top $100 a barrel, helping push inflation well into double digits and even posing a risk of intermittent deflation. The result will be an economy more rocky and a stock market more volatile than ever before. Fortunately, experts Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb provide a road map that will guide you through the worst of it-and point the way to financial success. With the help of their "all season" Oil Indicator, they'll show you how to choose the right investments for any market environment, guiding you toward portfolios that prize real assets. Among the crucial lessons you'll learn: Why oil and natural gas stocks should be core holdings in every investor's portfolio Why a cautious buy-and-hold strategy is a sure money loser and why conventional "safe" stocks are really the riskiest Why gold may be on the verge of a historic bull run How the global oil wars make defense stocks a premium buy Where to find the surest bets in the burgeoning field of alternative energy How to profit from real estate without actually owning any. With its hands-on advice and savvy stock recommendations, which offer an alternative to staying in pre-inflation-era positions and risking portfolio meltdown, The Oil Factor promises to be the indispensable financial advice guide of the decade.
Download or read book Oil and the Stock Markets written by Charles M. Jones and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy the Stock Market and the Putty clay Investment Model written by Chao Wei and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current issues in macroeconomics.
Download or read book Oil Price and Stock Market Linkages in a Small Oil Dependent Economy written by Constantinos Katrakilidis and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the dynamic linkages between oil prices and the stock market behaviour in a small and oil dependent economy. Particularly, we analyse empirically the relationships among stock market returns, the volatility of the stock market index, the oil price and the volatility of oil price in Greece. We employ VAR modelling in conjunction with Granger-causality tests. Contrary to the majority of the internationally reported evidence, our findings show the existence of significant positive causal effects from oil price changes on the stock market.
Download or read book Oil Markets in the Post Covid 19 World written by Mohammed Hamdaoui and published by Trends Research & advisory. This book was released on 2020-01-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scale of the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy has not been witnessed since the Great Depression. Isolation measures, implemented across the globe to contain the virus, confined hundreds of millions of people into their homes, bringing economic activities to a standstill. This crisis has impacted the oil and gas industry in an unprecedented manner. A massive decline in oil demand and a large oversupply, intensified by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has sent oil prices to levels unseen in decades. While the oil industry has faced several crises that have pushed it to find new ways to conduct business and adapt to changing conditions, the Covid-induced crisis has come when the industry is dealing with increased shareholder activism and intense pressure on the environmental front. Since this is a new phase for the industry, it could also become the catalyst that accelerates the transformation it has started to go through. Oil will continue to play an essential role in the energy mix for many decades. However, oil companies will have to navigate and manage an uncertain future as oil and gas projects will be riskier to develop and consequently require a higher rate of return. They will have to diversify their portfolios and continue shifting toward an integrated business model that embraces the changes caused by the energy transition and the growth in renewable and new technologies.
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Research on the Volatility of Oil Futures and European Stock Markets written by Dexiang Mei and published by Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. . This book was released on 2020-08-13 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the futures market is an important part of modern financial markets, the futures market volatility is an important part of the theory of financial markets research.
