Download or read book Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Download or read book South Asia Economic Focus written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-10-06 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: South Asia is facing renewed challenges. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices on domestic inflation is long-lasting. Externally, countries’ current account balances deteriorate rapidly as imports rise on the back of economic recovery and rising inflation, remittances decline, and foreign capital flows out following monetary tightening in advanced economies. An economic slowdown in advanced economies and trading partners can also be a drag to the exports sector and remittances inflows, which many countries in the region depend on. These immediate challenges can translate to persistent deterrent to long-term growth and development. Higher energy prices already are changing the attitude of many countries outside the region about green transition and carbon reduction. The South Asia region is thus at a critical juncture. The theme chapter provides a deep dive into COVID-19 and migration. Migrant workers and remittances flows are important for South Asia as sources of income and means to smooth local income shocks for households, and as an important source of foreign reserves for the country. The pandemic changed the flows of migration, as some migrants had to return home and some had to stay in foreign countries due to COVID-related restrictions. The chapter studies the long-run trend of migration in the region, how COVID-19 impacted migration and remittance inflows, whether migration has (or has not) recovered, and proposes policies to address underlying problems.
Download or read book Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models written by Jing Xie and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Download or read book Overcoming Data Sparsity A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real Time Impact of COVID 19 in Sub Saharan Africa written by Karim Barhoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.
Download or read book U MIDAS written by Claudia Foroni and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India written by Bruno S. Sergi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-22 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.
Download or read book GS SCORE Concept Mapping Workbook Indian Economy the Ultimate Guide to Cover Concepts through MCQs for Civil Services State PCS Other Competitive Examinations written by Manoj K. Jha and published by Prabhat Prakashan. This book was released on 2023-04-13 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: —Public Service Examinations across the Board in India offers immense opportunity for young talent to secure not only employment at prestigious positions but also gives them the chance to serve the nation in various capacities. —These examinations are of a highly diverse nature as they test the candidates on diverse subjects, further spanning multiple dimensions largely the subjects related to Polity, Economy, History, Geography, Science and Technology, environmental sciences and miscellaneous topics like sports, awards and other events of national and international importance. —All of these demand not only to study of these varied subjects but also practice in tackling the questions which are asked in the examination. Highlights of the Book Approach towards the subject —The book introduces you to the subject and the way in which this subject should be approached in order to score maximum. Micro Detailing of the Syllabus—The entire UPSC CSE syllabus has been clubbed into broad themes and each theme will be covered with the help of MCQs. Chronological Arrangement of Theme Based Questions—The various identified themes are arranged chronologically so that the entire Syllabus of a subject is roped in a logical line. Last Minute Concept Revision Sheet—The end of the book contains the summary of important concepts related to the subject which can be used as your effective revision notes. About GS SCORE—GS SCORE has been home to numerous toppers of UPSC's prestigious Civil Services Examination. Learning at GS SCORE is driven by two predominant objectives i.e. excellence and empowerment.
Download or read book Introductory Macroeconomics written by Zahida Jabeen and published by Notion Press. This book was released on 2024-05-15 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A textbook of grade XII Introductory Macroeconomics is specifically designed to introduce macroeconomic principles and concepts to build a solid foundation for understanding national income, Keynesian theory of income, and employment, functions of money and banking, Government budget, and balance of payment. It will help to explore key concepts like fiscal policy, monetary policy, foreign exchange rate, and other related concepts. With a focus on the Indian Economic landscape, this book equips students with the knowledge and analytical skills necessary for decision-making in a dynamic global economy. Empower your learning journey through an introductory macroeconomics textbook and embark on a fascinating exploration of economic dynamics.
Download or read book Nepal written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nepal’s post-pandemic rebound, fueled by a credit boom, came to an end last year as growth slowed markedly. Low domestic demand helped resolve external pressures but also deflated government revenue and led to a widening of the fiscal deficit despite spending discipline. Despite the November 2023 earthquake, growth is expected to recover to 3.5 percent in FY2023/24, which is below potential. Inflation is declining but remains high. While the financial sector appears to be weathering the credit contraction, regulatory and supervisory practices need to continue to be strengthened to facilitate the needed transition to more sustainable and pro-growth credit growth.
Download or read book Monitoring Global Poverty written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-11-28 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2013, the World Bank Group announced two goals that would guide its operations worldwide. First is the eradication of chronic extreme poverty bringing the number of extremely poor people, defined as those living on less than 1.25 purchasing power parity (PPP)†“adjusted dollars a day, to less than 3 percent of the world’s population by 2030.The second is the boosting of shared prosperity, defined as promoting the growth of per capita real income of the poorest 40 percent of the population in each country. In 2015, United Nations member nations agreed in New York to a set of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the first and foremost of which is the eradication of extreme poverty everywhere, in all its forms. Both the language and the spirit of the SDG objective reflect the growing acceptance of the idea that poverty is a multidimensional concept that reflects multiple deprivations in various aspects of well-being. That said, there is much less agreement on the best ways in which those deprivations should be measured, and on whether or how information on them should be aggregated. Monitoring Global Poverty: Report of the Commission on Global Poverty advises the World Bank on the measurement and monitoring of global poverty in two areas: What should be the interpretation of the definition of extreme poverty, set in 2015 in PPP-adjusted dollars a day per person? What choices should the Bank make regarding complementary monetary and nonmonetary poverty measures to be tracked and made available to policy makers? The World Bank plays an important role in shaping the global debate on combating poverty, and the indicators and data that the Bank collates and makes available shape opinion and actual policies in client countries, and, to a certain extent, in all countries. How we answer the above questions can therefore have a major influence on the global economy.
Download or read book MIDAS Versus Mixed frequency VAR written by Vladimir Kuzin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Environmental Social and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia written by William A. Barnett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2021-11-08 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new volume of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics explores the latest economic and financial developments in Asia.
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-11-08 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bringing together the recent advances and innovative methods in macroeconomic forecasting, this erudite Handbook outlines how to forecast, including following world events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. With contributions from global experts, chapters explore the use of machine-learning techniques, the value of social media data, and climate change forecasting. This title contains one or more Open Access chapters.
Download or read book Growth at Risk Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2012 written by Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy David H Romer and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2012-08-31 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )
