Download or read book Nonlinear Relations Between Stock Returns and Accounting Variables written by Peta Alana Stevenson-Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Regime Changes in the Relationship between Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy written by Stuart Hyde and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the presence of nonlinear influences in the relationship between stock returns and the macroeconomy is examined for eight countries. The markets chosen are Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, U.K. and the U.S. Specifically we analyse both the contemporaneous (asset pricing) relationship and the lagged (return predictability) relationship. Significantly the asset pricing relationship highlights the importance of accounting for variations in the relationships between bear markets and other states. Nonlinearity is accounted for via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model with the world market return as the transition variable. There is evidence of nonlinearity in all countries. Given the potentially complex nonlinearities in the determination of stock market prices, the possibility of multiple regimes (MRSTR) is also investigated. With the exception of Belgium, all markets exhibit evidence of multiple regimes. Results show that covariance with the world market portfolio increases during 'crisis' regimes, complementing the findings of Longin and Solnik (2001) and Ang, Chen and Xing (2004). Interest rate and inflation variables are strong determinants of stock returns while dividend yields and oil prices only influence returns in regimes identified by multiple regime models. Industrial production growth is not a significant factor. Out-of-sample forecasting of the nonlinear models is not superior to that of the linear models. However the smooth transition regression models predict direction more frequently than linear specifications. Analysis of return predictability produces results consistent with the standard stylised facts, i.e. that the dividend yield and term structure variables are important predictors of future stock returns.

Download or read book Non Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-07-27 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2000 volume reviews non-linear time series models, and their applications to financial markets.

Download or read book Earnings Cashflows and Returns written by Peta Stevenson-Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relation between stock returns, earnings and cashflows is of importance because it directly addresses the issue of whether accounting data provide value relevant information. The empirical evidence to date, however, has documented low explanatory power for earnings and inconclusive incremental information content for cashflows. This research re-evaluates the incremental information content debate using Australian data. Our research is motivated by: recent innovations in research design, including the specification of nonlinear functional relations between accounting variables and prices, and the fact that differences in firm size characteristics may influence the relative information content of the accounting variables. We observe that: (i) a nonlinear functional relation provides greater explanatory power for both earnings and cash flows; (ii) the results are consistent with more transitory earnings components for smaller firms; and (iii) contrary to received theory, cashflows add greater incremental explanatory power for large firms.

Download or read book The Relationship Between Accounting Variables Market Variables and Stock Return written by Lena Saeed Shiblee and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no evidence of accounting variables, market variables becoming irrelevant for identifying value stocks. Compared to popular alternatives, accounting variables, market variables is at least as good at producing dispersion in average returns. This ability has not declined in recent years. The changes in the composition of the economy during the past several years have not eliminated the strong cross-sectional relation between accounting variables, market variables and realized returns. This paper investigates this relationship within an accounting variables, market variables and stock return. We make our study in Saudi Arabia market choose three kind of sector (banking - cement and petroleum chemical).the most effect sector in Saudi industry. We conclude that the Stock Return were highly effected by (D/E), ROA, ROE, (E/P), (MV/BV), and (P/E) for the all most companies and sectors. The most variable effect was E/P have a strong negative effect.

Download or read book The Effects of Nonlinear Returns Earnings Relation on Empirical Research written by Daqing Dave Qi and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper first investigates the relation between stock returns and accounting earnings under the assumption that the function that maps unexpected earnings into stock returns is nonlinear and then examines what are the likely effects of not controlling for such non-linearity on empirical studies that assume a linear returns-earnings relation. A parsimonious nonlinear model is developed and used to analyze the effects of the non-linearity in the returns-earnings relation on empirical studies. Annual data are used for hypothesis testing and statistical analysis is based on the intertemporal distribution of coefficients from annual regressions.

Download or read book Volume and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Stock Returns written by Chiente Hsu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This manuscript is about the joint dynamics of stock returns and trading volume. It grew out of my attempt to construct an intertemporal asset pricing model with rational agents which can. explain the relation between volume, volatility and persistence of stock return documented in empirical literature. Most part of the manuscript is taken from my thesis. I wish to express my deep appreciation to Peter Kugler and Benedikt Poetscher, my advisors of the thesis, for their invaluable guidance and support. I wish to thank Gerhard Orosel and Gerhard Sorger for their encouraging and helpful discussions. Finally, my thanks go to George Tauchen who has been generous in giving me the benefit of his numerical and computational experience, in providing me with programs and in his encouragement. Contents 1 Introduction 1 7 2 Efficient Stock Markets Equilibrium Models of Asset Pricing 8 2. 1 2. 1. 1 The Martigale Model of Stock Prices 8 2. 1. 2 Lucas' Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model 9 2. 2 Econometric Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 13 2. 2. 1 Autocorrelation Based Tests 14 16 2. 2. 2 Volatility Tests Time-Varying Expected Returns 25 2. 2. 3 3 The Informational Role of Volume 29 3. 1 Standard Grossman-Stiglitz Model 31 3. 2 The No-Trad Result of the BEO Model 34 A Model with Nontradable Asset 37 3. 3 4 Volume and Volatility of Stock Returns 43 4. 1 Empirical and Numerical Results 45 4.

Download or read book Essays on the Relation Between Accounting Earnings and Stock Returns written by Peng-Chia Chiu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation includes three chapters, which are about empirical investigation of the return earnings relation. Chapter 1 explores the differential timing in stock price incorporation of industry and firm-specific earnings. I find that on average stock returns anticipate industry revenue and expense components earlier than the respective firm-specific components. Further analysis shows that the timing difference between industry versus firm-specific information about revenue or expense is inversely related to product market competition and accounting reporting quality. Additionally, the timing difference between industry versus firm-specific information about expense line-items varies across line-items. Overall, these results aid in our understanding of the price discovery process with respect to accounting earnings information. Chapter 2 examines a new dimension, the effect of seasonality, on the relation between expected earnings (EE) and subsequent price drift. The key finding is that the relation between EE proxied by analyst forecasts and future returns is positive in non-January months but negative in January. This reverse January relation is observed among different types of stocks, domestic and international markets, and cannot be explained away by other variables associated with January returns. Further analysis suggests that the reverse January relation is a result of a temporary price drift away from fundamental value. The results illustrate the importance of controlling for the calendar-time dimension when studying market efficiency with respect to expected earnings. Chapter 3 investigates whether seasonally-differenced quarterly gross margin, a component of earnings, predicts future stock returns incremental to previously documented pricing anomalies based on financial accounting variables. A long/short trading strategy based on the gross profit surprises yields monthly returns over 115 basis points and generates positive returns in 113 out of 136 calendar quarters spanning 1977-2010. Further analysis shows that the return spread is larger for firms in industries characterized by low levels of capital expenditures and R & D intensity. Since 2000, gross profit surprise hedge portfolios yield returns of 91 basis points per month compared to 42 basis points per month for earnings surprise-based hedge strategies. The results suggest that gross margin contains information about future core profitability that is incremental to reported earnings and that information is reflected in stock prices with a delay.

Download or read book Nonlinear Financial Econometrics Markov Switching Models Persistence and Nonlinear Cointegration written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes new methods to value equity and model the Markowitz efficient frontier using Markov switching models and provide new evidence and solutions to capture the persistence observed in stock returns across developed and emerging markets.

Download or read book ITJEMAST 10 9 2019 written by and published by International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies publishes a wide spectrum of research and technical articles as well as reviews, experiments, experiences, modelings, simulations, designs, and innovations from engineering, sciences, life sciences, and related disciplines as well as interdisciplinary/cross-disciplinary/multidisciplinary subjects. Original work is required. Article submitted must not be under consideration of other publishers for publications.

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Download or read book Handbook of Computational Finance written by Jin-Chuan Duan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any financial asset that is openly traded has a market price. Except for extreme market conditions, market price may be more or less than a “fair” value. Fair value is likely to be some complicated function of the current intrinsic value of tangible or intangible assets underlying the claim and our assessment of the characteristics of the underlying assets with respect to the expected rate of growth, future dividends, volatility, and other relevant market factors. Some of these factors that affect the price can be measured at the time of a transaction with reasonably high accuracy. Most factors, however, relate to expectations about the future and to subjective issues, such as current management, corporate policies and market environment, that could affect the future financial performance of the underlying assets. Models are thus needed to describe the stochastic factors and environment, and their implementations inevitably require computational finance tools.

Download or read book Non Linear Predictability of Stock Market Returns written by Andreas Humpe and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using smooth transition regression model analysis, we examine the non-linear predictability of Japanese and US stock market returns by a set of macroeconomic variables between 1981 and 2012. The theoretical basis for investigating non-linear behavior in stock returns can be based on the interaction between noise traders and arbitrageurs or behavioral finance theories of non-linear risk aversion. As heterogeneity in investors' beliefs gives reason to suspect a smooth transition between extremes, rather than abrupt, a smooth transition regression model is estimated. Our findings support differences in non-linearity of stock returns in Japan and the US that might be linked to different shareownership of the Japanese stock market compared to the US. In addition, differences in the legal system might have some influence over our findings as well. The US results also suggest greater heterogeneity in the relationship between stock returns and macro variables in the US data relative to the Japanese data. The reasons behind the differences in our results, both between countries and between regimes are probably due to the different economic conditions faced by Japan and the US over our sample, to the possible existence of bubbles in the data and to investor behavior consistent with 'behavioral finance' theories of investor behaviour.

Download or read book Accounting Variables and Stock Returns written by Peta Stevenson-Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fundamental relationship between accounting variables and firm valuation is a recurring theme in capital market research. This paper investigates this relationship within a balance sheet context and highlights the importance of controlling for relevant economic factors. We do this by conditioning explanatory power on the firm's relative financial leverage position, after controlling for cashflows and firm size, and using an arctan regression model to take account of temporary components in cash and earnings flows. Using data for 743 firm-years for Australian Stock Exchange listed stocks, we find that for firms which are 'above optimal leverage': (i) earnings contain a greater level of transitory items, particularly when firm size is small; and (ii) cashflows provide higher incremental information. Our results are consistent with investors perceiving earnings as progressively less informative as the probability of failure increases, and the likelihood of earnings manipulation for the purpose of reducing proximity to debt covenants increases.

Download or read book Nonlinearity in the Returns earnings and Returns cash Flows Relations written by Kirsten Lynn Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This study analyzes the relations between returns and earnings and returns and cash flows. The purpose is to determine how accounting information is associated with firm performance (market returns). These relations are studied over both short (one and five years) and long (ten years) measurement intervals. Models with varying degrees of distributional restrictions are employed to determine the nature of these relations over each interval. These are OLS, arctan (nonlinear), and a semiparametric (single index) model. Within each measurement interval, firms are partitioned into quartiles based on the length of the firm's operating cycle. The operating cycle measures how long it takes a firm to convert cash outflows to cash inflows from operations. It also measures the approximate length of time that it takes for changes in operations to result in changes in firm profitability. Nonlinearities likely occur in the returns-earnings relation in part because of the timing of recognition differences in the accrual system. Information is likely recognized by the market before it is in accounting. This differential in recognition results in different valuation coefficients on different components of accounting earnings. Certain components of earnings may have already been recognized by the market so a lower coefficient results. It is likely that extreme earnings contain a higher proportion of these types of components so nonlinearities result in the tails of the earnings distribution. Since changes in operations for firms with shorter operating cycles likely impact the firm's profitability more quickly, I expect the returns-earnings relation to become linear more quickly for these firms. I hypothesize and results show that the returns-earnings relation is nonlinear over the shorter measurement intervals and become linear as the measurement interval is lengthened for firms with shorter operating cycles. The returns-cash flows relation is also nonlinear for most operating cycle partitions over shorter windows and approximates linearity for most operating cycle partitions over longer intervals. On average, earnings explain a higher proportion of returns than do cash flows for all measurement intervals. This result is even more pronounced when well-specified models are employed.

Download or read book Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Accounting Management and Economics ICAME 7 2022 written by Muhammad Irdam Ferdiansyah and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-27 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. The International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICAME) is an annual agenda organized by the Faculty of Economics and Business, Hasanuddin University. In 2022, we would like to introduce to you the 7th ICAME with the current theme entitled “Innovation Towards Sustainable Business”. We hope that our conference can add discussions and information from various research towards the discourse of new economic policy in the post-pandemic era. This activity also became an important agenda in publishing scientific papers by academics and became a positive contribution to mapping Indonesia’s future development. Therefore, we would like to invite academics, practitioners, researchers to contribute to the development of economic and business management research through participating in the 7th of ICAME. Thank you for your participation and we look forward to meeting you at the conference.

Download or read book Accounting Conservatism and the Stock Market written by Carlo D’Augusta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: