Download or read book Nonlinear Models for Economic Decision Processes written by Ionut Purica and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using models, developed in one branch of science, to describe similar behaviors encountered in a different one, is the essence of a synergetic approach. A wide range of topics has been developed including Agent-based models, econophysics, socio-economic networks, information, bounded rationality and learning in economics, markets as complex adaptive systems evolutionary economics, multiscale analysis and modeling, nonlinear dynamics and econometrics, physics of risk, statistical and probabilistic methods in economics and finance. Complexity. This publication concentrates on process behavior of economic systems and building models that stem from Haken's, Prigogine's, Taylor's work as well as from nuclear physics models.
Download or read book Modeling Complexity In Economic And Social Systems written by Frank Schweitzer and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2002-12-09 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics and the social sciences are, in fact, the “hard” sciences, as Herbert Simon argued, because the complexity of the problems dealt with cannot simply be reduced to analytically solvable models or decomposed into separate subprocesses. Nevertheless, in recent years, the emerging interdisciplinary “sciences of complexity” have provided new methods and tools for tackling these problems, ranging from complex data analysis to sophisticated computer simulations. In particular, advanced methods developed in the natural sciences have recently also been applied to social and economic problems.The twenty-one chapters of this book reflect this modern development from various modeling perspectives (such as agent-based models, evolutionary game theory, reinforcement learning and neural network techniques, time series analysis, non-equilibrium macroscopic dynamics) and for a broad range of socio-economic applications (market dynamics, technological evolution, spatial dynamics and economic growth, decision processes, and agent societies). They jointly demonstrate a shift of perspective in economics and the social sciences that is allowing a new outlook in this field to emerge.
Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear Classification and Regression written by David G. T. Denison and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-05-06 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bei der Regressionsanalyse von Datenmaterial erhält man leider selten lineare oder andere einfache Zusammenhänge (parametrische Modelle). Dieses Buch hilft Ihnen, auch komplexere, nichtparametrische Modelle zu verstehen und zu beherrschen. Stärken und Schwächen jedes einzelnen Modells werden durch die Anwendung auf Standarddatensätze demonstriert. Verbreitete nichtparametrische Modelle werden mit Hilfe von Bayes-Verfahren in einen kohärenten wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischen Zusammenhang gebracht.
Download or read book Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes written by Manfred Grauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These Proceedings report the scientific results of the Summer Study on Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes orga nized jointly by the System and Decision Sciences Program of the Inter national Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (located in Laxenburg, Austria) and the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis. The Study, which was held in Sopron over the period 16-26 Augus·t 1984, had a very special character. Sixty-eight researchers from sixteen coun tr~es participated, most of them contributing papers or experiments. In addition many members of IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program were present. All of these participants were heavily involved in dis cussions; discussions that were not limited to the allotted time but extended well into the evenings and nights. By design, the Study gathered specialists from many disciplines, from philosophy and cultur al anthropology, through decision theory, game theory and economics, to engineering and applied mathematics. A further element of diversity was the representation of several varieties of culture, from typically Western countries, through Middle and Eastern Europe, to the Far East.
Download or read book Combining Fuzzy Imprecision with Probabilistic Uncertainty in Decision Making written by Mario Fedrizzi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the literature of decision analysis it is traditional to rely on the tools provided by probability theory to deal with problems in which uncertainty plays a substantive role. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that uncertainty is a mul tifaceted concept in which some of the important facets do not lend themselves to analysis by probability-based methods. One such facet is that of fuzzy imprecision, which is associated with the use of fuzzy predicates exemplified by small, large, fast, near, likely, etc. To be more specific, consider a proposition such as "It is very unlikely that the price of oil will decline sharply in the near future," in which the italicized words play the role of fuzzy predicates. The question is: How can one express the mean ing of this proposition through the use of probability-based methods? If this cannot be done effectively in a probabilistic framework, then how can one employ the information provided by the proposition in question to bear on a decision relating to an investment in a company engaged in exploration and marketing of oil? As another example, consider a collection of rules of the form "If X is Ai then Y is B,," j = 1, . . . , n, in which X and Yare real-valued variables and Ai and Bi are fuzzy numbers exemplified by small, large, not very small, close to 5, etc.
Download or read book Group Decision Making under Multiple Criteria written by Ching-Lai Hwang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph is intended for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course of engineering and management science. as well as for persons in business. industry. military or in any field. who want an introductory and a capsule look into the methods of group decision making under multiple criteria. This is a sequel to our previous works entitled "Multiple Objective Decision Making--Methods and Applications (No. 164 of the Lecture Notes). and "Multiple Attribute Decision Making--Methods and Applications (No. 186 of the Lecture Notes). Moving from a single decision maker (the consideration of Lecture Notes 164 and 186) to a multiple decision maker setting introduces a great deal of complexity into the analysis. The problem is no longer the selection of the most preferred alternative among the nondominated solutions according to one individual's (single decision maker's) preference structure. The analysis is extended to account for the conflicts among different interest groups who have different objectives. goals. and so forth. Group decision making under multiple criteria includes such diverse and interconnected fields as preference analysis. utility theory. social choice theory. committee decision theory. theory of voting. game theory. expert evaluation analysis. aggregation of qualitative factors. economic equilibrium theory. etc; these are simplified and systematically classified for beginners. This work is to provide readers with a capsule look into the existing methods. their characteristics. and applicability in the complexity of group decision making.
Download or read book Models of Economic Dynamics written by Hugo F. Sonnenschein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Decision System in Agricultural Pest Management written by Ali Rajabpour and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Use of Stochastic Processes in Modeling Reliability Problems written by Alessandro Birolini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic processes are powerful tools for the investigation of reliability and availability of repairable equipment and systems. Because of the involved models, and in order to be mathematically tractable, these processes are generally confined to the class of regenerative stochastic processes with a finite state space, to which belong: renewal processes, Markov processes, semi-Markov processes, and more general regenerative processes with only one (or a few) regeneration staters). The object of this monograph is to review these processes and to use them in solving some reliability problems encountered in practical applications. Emphasis is given to a comprehensive exposition of the analytical procedures, to the limitations in volved, and to the unification and extension of. the models known in the literature. The models investigated here assume. that systems have only one repair crew and that no further failure can occur at system down. Repair and failure rates are general ized step-by-step, up to the case in which the involved process is regenerative with only one (or a few) regeneration state(s). Investigations deal with different kinds of reliabilities and availabilities for series/parallel structures. Preventive main tenance and imperfect switching are considered in some examples.
Download or read book Estimation of Dynamic Econometric Models with Errors in Variables written by Jaime Terceiro Lomba and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new procedure for the maximum-likelihood estimation of dynamic econometric models with errors in both endogenous and exogenous variables is presented in this monograph. A complete analytical development of the expressions used in problems of estimation and verification of models in state-space form is presented. The results are useful in relation not only to the problem of errors in variables but also to any other possible econometric application of state-space formulations.
Download or read book Estimation of Disequilibrium Models written by Hans-Jürg Büttler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph grew out of a project which was sponsored by the Swiss National Foundation ("Schweizerischer Nationalfonds") under grant no. 4. 636-0. 83. 09. Yithin this project, prediction-oriented estimation methods for the canonical econometric disequilibrium model were developed. The present monograph deals with the application of these estimation techniques to three aggregative markets of the Swiss economy. Parts of the monograph have been presented at various places: the estimation techniques described in chapter 3 at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Madrid 1984; the application to residential investment described in chapter 4 at a symposium on housing policy at the University of Mannheim, 1984; the empirical study on the money stock described in chapter 5 at the Symposium on Money, Banking and Insurance held at the University of Karlsruhe, 1984, as well as at a joint seminar of the University of Basle and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 1985; and, finally, the empirical study on the aggregate labor market described in chapter 6 at a seminar of the University of ZUrich, 1985. Comments from toe seminar participants, in particular from Palle S. Andersen (BIS) who served as a discussant, Pascal Bridel (Swiss National Bank, SNB), Franz Ettlin (SNB), and Kurt Schiltknecht (Nordfinanz-Bank, Zurich) are gratefully acknowledged, without implying any responsibility on their part. The methodological part described in chapters 2 and 3 is contributed by G. Frei and B.
Download or read book Sequential Binary Investment Decisions written by Werner Jammernegg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes some models from the theory of investment which are mainly characterized by three features. Firstly, the decision-maker acts in a dynamic environment. Secondly, the distributions of the random variables are only incompletely known at the beginning of the planning process. This is termed as decision-making under conditions of uncer tainty. Thirdly, in large parts of the work we restrict the analysis to binary decision models. In a binary model, the decision-maker must choose one of two actions. For example, one decision means to undertake the invest ·ment project in a planning period, whereas the other decision prescribes to postpone the project for at least one more period. The analysis of dynamic decision models under conditions of uncertainty is not a very common approach in economics. In this framework the op timal decisions are only obtained by the extensive use of methods from operations research and from statistics. It is the intention to narrow some of the existing gaps in the fields of investment and portfolio analysis in this respect. This is done by combining techniques that have been devel oped in investment theory and portfolio selection, in stochastic dynamic programming, and in Bayesian statistics. The latter field indicates the use of Bayes' theorem for the revision of the probability distributions of the random variables over time.
Download or read book Dynamic Games and Applications in Economics written by Tamer Başar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1986-03 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains eleven articles which deal with different aspects of dynaoic and differential game theory and its applications in economic modeling and decision making. All but one of these were presented as invited papers in special sessions I organized at the 7th Annual Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control in London, England, during the period June 26-28, 1985. The first article, which comprises Chapter 1, provides a general introduction to the topic of dynamic and differential game theory, discusses various noncooperative equilibrium solution concepts, includ ing Nash, Stackelberg, and Consistent Conjectural Variations equilibria, and a number of issues such as feedback and time-consistency. The second chapter deals with the role of information in Nash equilibria and the role of leadership in Stackelberg problems. A special type of a Stackelberg problem is the one in which one dominant player (leader) acquires dynamic information involving the actions of the others (followers), and constructs policies (so-called incentives) which enforce a certain type of behavior on the followers; Chapter 3 deals with such a class of problems and presents some new theoretical results on the existence of affine incentive policies. The topic of Chapter 4 is the computation of equilibria in discounted stochastic dynamic games. Here, for problems with finite state and decision spaces, existing algorithms are reviewed, with a comparative study of their speeds of convergence, and a new algorithm for the computation of nonzero-sum game equilibria is presented.
Download or read book Mathematical Reviews written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 958 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Growth Cycles and Multisectoral Economics the Goodwin Tradition written by Gianni Ricci and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a collection of the most significant contributions to some of R.M. Goodwin's ideas, which were presented on the occasion of the outstanding economist's 73rd birthday celebrations held in Modena on February 24th, 1986. The most important feature of this book is the unique combination of papers by economists, econometricians and mathematicians. Their papers deal with the different aspects of Goodwin's celebrated models. The book is divided into three parts. The first part contains five papers which describe Goodwin's scientific life. The second part is more quantitative and contains extensions and modifications to the nonlinear model of growth cycles. The third part is an economic reflection linked to Goodwin's themes. The book presents a combination of both qualitative and quantitative contributions to Goodwin's pioneering works.
Download or read book Modern Methods of Optimization written by Werner Krabs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the summer school "Modern Methods of Optimization", held at the Schlof3 Thurnau of the University of Bayreuth, October 1-6, 1990. Like other branches of applied mathematics the area of optimization is undergoing a rapid development since the beginning of the computer age. Optimizaiton methods are of increasing importance for both, science and industry. The aim of the summer school was to present state-of-the-art knowledge by inviting 12 specialists from Op timization (and related fields) to present their areas of activity in the form of survey talks. This volume contains 10 of these presentations in slightly extended form. Most lectures started from an undergraduate level and outlinad the developments up to the latest scientifique achievements. This enabled the audience, consisting of about 45 students and young researchers, to get an excellent overview of the latest trends in Optimization as w~ll as a grasp of the breadth of its potential applications. Equally important to the success of the summer school was the "nonmeasurable" part of the activities inherent in such a summer school. Here the inspiring atmosphere of a place like Thurnau helped to establish numerous contacts between "teachers" and "students". The summer school was organized by the Universitii. t Bayreuth together with the Technische Hochschule Darmstadt and was generously sponsored by the Volkswagen stiftung and the Universitii. tsverein Bayreuth. Their interest in the meeting and their support is hereby gratefully acknowledged.
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy written by Franz Gehrels and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.
