Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates written by Feng Xu and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models written by Lucio Sarno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the "purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles." The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.

Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Futures Market written by Laura E. Kodres and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates written by Timothy K. Hopper and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Non linear Error Correction in Spot and Forward Exchange Rates written by David G. McMillan and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Covered Interest Rate Parity written by Nathan S. Balke and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of deviations from covered interest parity using daily data on the UK/US spot, forward exchange rates and interest rates over the period January 1974 to September 1993. Like other studies we find a substantial number of instances during the sample in which the covered interest parity condition exceeds the transaction costs band, implying arbitrage profit opportunities. While most of these implied profit opportunities are relatively small, there is also evidence of some very large deviations from covered interest parity in the sample. In order to examine the persistence of these deviations, we estimated a threshold autoregression in which the dynamic behavior of deviations from covered interest parity is different outside the transaction costs band than inside them. We find that while the impulse response functions when inside the transaction costs band are nearly symmetric, those for the outside the bands are asymmetric-suggesting less persistence outside of the transaction costs band than inside the band.

Download or read book Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates written by H. L. Leon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences in magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from fixed and time-varying thresholds, both between over-appreciations and over-depreciations and between developed and developing countries. In particular, the average cumulative sum of deviations during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice that of the sum during periods of over-appreciation, and is larger for developing than for advanced countries.

Download or read book Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates written by Hyginus Leon and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Joint Dynamics of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates written by Francisco de Castro and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Joint Dynamics of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates written by Francisco de Castro Fernández and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data written by Philip Rothman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

Download or read book Applying Economic Restrictions to Foreign Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Michael U. Dothan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extant models of exchange rate behavior have typically relied on statistical rather than economic considerations. The approach has been to employ a variant of the generalized central limit theorem to develop tests for the models proposed. We propose a minimal set of simple economic restrictions -- symmetry, invariance, and non-negativity -- that must be satisfied by an exchange rate process. By symmetry, we mean that both the direct and indirect exchange rate processes must belong to the same class of distributions. By invariance, we mean that the distribution for an exchange rate must be invariant to changes in the currency unit. By non-negativity, we mean that the exchange rate process must preclude negative values. We identify various alternative specifications for exchange rate processes and show that some of them do not possess some or all of the above properties. Finally, we propose a new exchange rate process -- the mean-reverting logarithmic process (MRL) -- and develop valuation equations for several exchange rate instruments, from forward and futures contracts to straight options on the spot rates to options on the futures contracts.

Download or read book Deterministic Chaos in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Paul De Grauwe and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series written by William A. Barnett and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-05-22 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents some of the more recent developments in nonlinear time series, including Bayesian analysis and cointegration tests.

Download or read book A Nonlinear Model of Real Exchange Rate Dynamics with an Application to the Case of Taiwan written by Zhaonan Chen and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Nonlinear Dynamics in Exchange Rates and Economic Growth written by Shamar Levaughn Stewart and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores modeling existing nonlinear dynamics in exchange rates and economic growth. Particularly, the three essays, herein, investigate the stability of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and synchronicity of economic growth across provinces in China. The first essay empirically assesses the degree of fluctuations in the SDRs attributable to U.S monetary policy. In this vein, I contribute to the financial asset/exchange rate literature by identifying structural shocks to real-time U.S. output growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates. Moreover, I exploit the time-varying heteroskedasticity of the data without imposing a priori exclusion restrictions. Over the period 1981.Q1-2018.Q1, a contractionary U.S. monetary policy shock results in an immediate depreciation of the U.S. dollar value of the euro, Yen, and pound in the SDR basket. After the introduction of French and German Euros in 1999.Q1, all the currencies appreciated against the USD. Also, U.S. monetary policy contributes about 4% of the variations in the SDR basket's return. Chapter 2, explores the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the value of SDRs during the 1981.M1 0́3 1998.M12 and 1999.M1 0́3 2016.M9 vintages. Unlike the first chapter, we test the data against different monetary policy indicators presented in the macroeconomics literature. To this end, we use a structural vector autoregression with identification through heteroskedasticity to identify the appropriate instruments of monetary policy. We find that the nominal exchange rates are insulated from U.S. policy shocks0́4 the contribution does not exceed 15%. In both subsamples, policy easing induces an appreciation in the dollar. In the third chapter, we use a dynamic factor model with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility to document significant evidence of time-varying synchronization of the regional growth dynamics in China. The correlation in cross-region economic growth performance increased during the recent global recession and declined post-recession, albeit still at a higher level than before 2008. While the large degree of synchronization of regional growth dynamics permits the central government (bank) to implement a uniform fiscal (monetary) policy, this also reduces China's ability to stymie the propagation of external shocks and instead increases systemic risks across regions.

Download or read book Applied Econometric Time Series written by Walter Enders and published by Wiley Global Education. This book was released on 2014-11-03 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition demonstrates modern techniques for developing models capable of forecasting, interpreting, and testing hypotheses concerning economic data. In this text, Dr. Walter Enders commits to using a “learn-by-doing” approach to help readers master time-series analysis efficiently and effectively.