Download or read book New techniques for improving climate models predictions and projections written by Matthew Collins and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-01-24 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling written by Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-07 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

Download or read book Downscaling Techniques for High Resolution Climate Projections written by Rao Kotamarthi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Downscaling is a widely used technique for translating information from large-scale climate models to the spatial and temporal scales needed to assess local and regional climate impacts, vulnerability, risk and resilience. This book is a comprehensive guide to the downscaling techniques used for climate data. A general introduction of the science of climate modeling is followed by a discussion of techniques, models and methodologies used for producing downscaled projections, and the advantages, disadvantages and uncertainties of each. The book provides detailed information on dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques in non-technical language, as well as recommendations for selecting suitable downscaled datasets for different applications. The use of downscaled climate data in national and international assessments is also discussed using global examples. This is a practical guide for graduate students and researchers working on climate impacts and adaptation, as well as for policy makers and practitioners interested in climate risk and resilience.

Download or read book High resolution Coupling and Initialization to Improve Predictability and Predictions in Climate Models Workshop September 30 October 2 2015 written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "There is a growing demand for reliable high-resolution, coupled-climate information in two communities: the predictions and projections communities. The climate prediction community conducts both basic and applied research on short-range climate predictability that directly benefit operational forecast capabilities, and the climate modeling and projection community focuses primarily on basic research concerning climate variability and long-term climate change. Despite the differences, there are several key parallels between these two research communities—a basic example being that both communities assimilate observational data into comprehensive physical climate or earth system models. The prediction community uses a variety of data assimilation techniques for initializing real-time forecasts and reforecasts, and for producing reanalysis, while the climate modeling and projections community started to adopt data assimilation techniques for basic research and for short-term reforecasts to diagnose model behavior. Both communities are also on the verge of increasing the resolution of the climate models while coupling with many more components of the climate and Earth system. While the predictions community explicitly aims to advance the development of operational products that are of the highest possible value to stakeholders and decision-makers at the weeks-toseasons timescale, the climate modeling community is implicitly involved in generating products that are used in assessments and to inform stakeholders and decision-makers about long-term climate change. Recognizing the common challenges and capitalizing on the potential synergies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) jointly hosted the workshop High-Resolution Coupling and Initialization to Improve Predictability and Predictions in Climate Models. This workshop brought together two groups of scientific experts: one focused on sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate predictions and the other focused on using initialized simulations to identify biases in climate models, such as in the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT)"--Executive summary. [doi:10.7289/V5K35RNX (http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V5K35RNX)]

Download or read book Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Download or read book Global Effects of Environmental Pollution written by S.F. Singer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Symposium on the Global Effects of Environmental Pollution has performed an important task; it has helped to determine the world-wide impact of certain types of local pollution and has uncovered certain unsuspected effects that might hold dan gerous implications for the future. This Symposium should help to make the world aware of a crisis that is becoming more ominous and that involves the developing as well as the developed countries - the crisis of the human environment. The causes of this crisis are not difficult to discern. There has been an unprecedented increase in the world's population, an ever-increasing rate of urbanization, and in many countries, a continuous process of industrialization. Essentially, advancing technology has made it possible for a minority of mankind to achieve affluence and holds out hope for improving the well-being of the great majority. But, because it has not been integrated into the natural environment, this very technology - in industry, in agriculture or in transport - is having many undesir able and potentially catastrophic consequences. Our air, our water and our soil are in grave danger. Many species of animal and plant life have become extinct or are facing extinction. The loss to mankind is grave and even the future oflife on earth may be in danger. The challenge is to find ways of repairing the harm already done and to prevent further harm.

Download or read book Climate Change Modeling Methodology written by Philip J. Rasch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-09 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.

Download or read book Our Future Climate written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issued for World Meteorological Day 2003, this brochure explains, in terms accessible to the general public, the climate system and the climate change processes, as well as model projections of our future climate with its far-reaching consequences to society. The brochure also explains why the unprecedented weather- and climate-related extreme events, such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones in various parts of the world, are glimpses of what could be awaiting future generations if human-induced change to our climate is not brought under control.--Publisher's description.

Download or read book Climate Change and Climate Modeling written by J. David Neelin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-12-16 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.

Download or read book Weather Climate Services for the Energy Industry written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.

Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Download or read book Improving Climate Projections Through the Assessment of Model Uncertainty and Bias in the Global Water Cycle written by Noel C. Baker and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

Download or read book Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin written by The BACC II Author Team and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-03 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change along with the global effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, namely atmospheric aerosols and land-cover change. The evidence collected and presented in this book shows that the regional climate has already started to change and this is expected to continue. Projections of potential future climates show that the region will probably become considerably warmer and wetter in some parts, but dryer in others. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have already shown adjustments to increased temperatures and are expected to undergo further changes in the near future. The BACC II Author Team consists of 141 scientists from 12 countries, covering various disciplines related to climate research and related impacts. BACC II is a project of the Baltic Earth research network and contributes to the World Climate Research Programme.