Download or read book New Models for Managing Longevity Risk written by Olivia S. Mitchell and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Notwithstanding the terrible price the world has paid in the coronavirus pandemic, the fact remains that longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life. As this volume shows, PPPs typically involve shared government financing alongside private sector partner expertise, management responsibility, and accountability. In addition to offering empirical evidence on examples where this is working well, contributors provide case studies, discuss survey results, and examine a variety of different financial and insurance products to better meet the needs of the aging population. This volume will be informative to researchers, plan sponsors, students, and policymakers seeking to enhance retirement plan offerings.

Download or read book New Models for Managing Longevity Risk written by Olivia S. Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life.

Download or read book Modeling and Managing Longevity Risk written by Yanxin Liu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the threat of longevity risk to the insurance industry becoming increasingly apparent in recent years, insurers and reinsurers are concerned about how to better model and manage longevity risk. However, modeling and managing longevity risk is not trivial, due in part to its systematic nature and in part to the excessive amount of risk factors that constitute the risk. The theme of this thesis is modeling and managing longevity risk. In particular, this thesis focuses on four types of uncertainties among all possible risk factors. These four risk factors include 1) mortality jump risk; 2) longevity drift risk; 3) population basis risk; and 4) cohort mismatch risk.

Download or read book Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business written by Ermanno Pitacco and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-01-29 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mortality improvements, uncertainty in future mortality trends and the relevant impact on life annuities and pension plans constitute important topics in the field of actuarial mathematics and life insurance techniques. In particular, actuarial calculations concerning pensions, life annuities and other living benefits (provided, for example, by long-term care insurance products and whole life sickness covers) are based on survival probabilities which necessarily extend over a long time horizon. In order to avoid underestimation of the related liabilities, the insurance company (or the pension plan) must adopt an appropriate forecast of future mortality. Great attention is currently being devoted to the management of life annuity portfolios, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view, because of the growing importance of annuity benefits paid by private pension schemes. In particular, the progressive shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes has increased the interest in life annuities with a guaranteed annual amount. This book provides a comprehensive and detailed description of methods for projecting mortality, and an extensive introduction to some important issues concerning longevity risk in the area of life annuities and pension benefits. It relies on research work carried out by the authors, as well as on a wide teaching experience and in CPD (Continuing Professional Development) initiatives. The following topics are dealt with: life annuities in the framework of post-retirement income strategies; the basic mortality model; recent mortality trends that have been experienced; general features of projection models; discussion of stochastic projection models, with numerical illustrations; measuring and managing longevity risk.

Download or read book New Financial Instruments for Managing Longevity Risk written by John Kiff and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reduced returns and longevity risk are making it challenging for employers to offer defined benefit pensions. In countries with large defined benefit pension plan sectors, sponsors are transferring these obligations, and the associated investment and longevity risk, to life (re)insurers via buy-outs, buy-ins, and longevity swaps. Nevertheless, to date, there has been no successful longevity bond issuance, although there have been several false starts. This contrasts with the active market for catastrophe bonds that transfer risk associated with catastrophic events from (re)insurers to capital markets. This paper reviews catastrophe bond and other insurance risk transfer market developments, to identify the factors and design features that have resulted in success and failure. Conclusions are informed by an extensive literature review and quantitative survey, plus discussions with market participants including public policy makers. We conclude with suggestions for product design features and public policies that might kick start vibrant longevity bond markets.

Download or read book Life Settlements and Longevity Structures written by Geoff Chaplin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-08-03 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent turbulence in the financial markets has highlighted the need for diversified portfolios with lower correlations between the different investments. Life settlements meet this need, offering investors the prospect of high, stable returns, uncorrelated with the broader financial markets. This book provides readers of all levels of experience with essential information on the process surrounding the acquisition and management of a portfolio of life settlements; the assessment, modelling and mitigation of the associated longevity, interest rate and credit risks; and practical approaches to financing and risk management structures. It begins with the history of life insurance and looks at how the need for new financing sources has led to the growth of the life settlements market in the United States. The authors provide a detailed exploration of the mathematical formulae surrounding the generation of mortality curves, drawing a parallel between the tools deployed in the credit derivatives market and those available to model longevity risk. Structured products and securitisation techniques are introduced and explained, starting with simple vanilla products and models before illustrating some of the investment structures associated with life settlements. Capital market mechanisms available to assist the investor in limiting the risks associated with life settlement portfolios are outlined, as are opportunities to use life settlement portfolios to mitigate the risks of traditional capital markets. The last section of the book covers derivative products, either available now or under consideration, that will reduce or potentially eliminate longevity risks within life settlement portfolios. It then reviews hedging and risk management strategies and considers how to measure the effectiveness of risk mitigation.

Download or read book Trend Processes in Mortality Models and Management of the Longevity Risk written by Johannes Schupp and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Managing Longevity Risk written by Laura Wyss and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Longevity Risk and Retirement Income Planning written by Patrick J. Collins and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2015-12-28 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past 50 years have seen an abundance of research on retirement planning and longevity risk. Reviewed here is the academic side of the research and its varied viewpoints and nuances. The evolution of retirement risk models, retirement portfolio problems and solutions, and annuities are some of the many topics covered.

Download or read book Longevity Risk a Comprehensive Framework written by Elissa Yaacoub Houkayem and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk written by Oecd and published by OCDE. This book was released on 2014 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pension funds and annuity providers need to effectively manage the longevity risk they are exposed to. Individuals receiving a lifetime income may live longer than expected or accounted for in the actuarial calculations to provision for these liabilities. Mismanaged longevity risk can deteriorate finances, cause bankruptcy and expose individuals to the risk of losing their retirement income. To safeguard against this risk, pension funds and annuity providers must provision for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The regulatory framework can support the effective management of longevity risk. This publication assesses how pension funds, annuity providers such as life insurance companies, and the regulatory framework account for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The study then examines the mortality tables commonly used by pension funds and annuity providers against several well-known mortality projection models with the purpose of assessing the potential shortfall in provisions. The final part of the publication identifies best practices and discusses the management of longevity risk, putting forward a set of policy options to encourage and facilitate the management of longevity risk.

Download or read book Household Financial Planning Strategies for Managing Longevity Risk written by Vickie L. Bajtelsmit and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [Enter Abstract Body]This study examines how longevity risk, in conjunction with other postretirement risks, impacts retirement consumption decisions and retirement wealth needs. We develop a theoretical model that directly examines the relationship between longevity risk and consumption/savings, and empirically test these theoretical implications by simulating retirement outcomes for representative households, including longevity, inflation, investment, health, and long-term care risks. Our study shows that the top third of households by longevity need approximately 20% more retirement wealth than those households who live only an average life span. Investigations of various risk mitigation strategies suggest that combination strategies, particularly those that include delayed retirement, can significantly reduce the retirement wealth target. This research provides valuable new insights on household financial planning strategies for managing longevity risk.Full Text Available Here: "https://doi.org/10.1002/cfp2.1007" https://doi.org/10.1002/cfp2.1007.

Download or read book Longevity Risk written by Frederik Weber and published by VVW GmbH. This book was released on 2010 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Die Dissertation von Dr. Frederik Weber erscheint in englischer Sprache. Der demographische Wandel und die steigende Lebenserwartung haben in jüngster Zeit verstärkte Diskussionen in der Öffentlichkeit angeregt. Zusätzlich sinkende Rentenleistungen erfordern ein effizienteres Management der privaten Altersvorsorge. Gleichzeitig ergibt sich aus dieser Tatsache ein erhöhtes Risiko für Rentenanbieter aus der Unsicherheit über die zukünftige Sterblichkeitsentwicklung. Die vorliegende Arbeit beleuchtet dazu zunächst die zugrundeliegende demographische Entwicklung und unterschiedliche Ausprägungen des Langlebigkeitsrisikos. Mögliche Probleme bei der Versicherbarkeit dieses Risikos bieten Anknüpfungspunkte für die optimierte Gestaltung von Versicherungsverträgen. Neben Kohorteneffekten in der Sterblichkeitsentwicklung, für die geeignete Maßzahlen und Kriterien zur Identifikation sogenannter "Select Cohorts" diskutiert werden, steht eine Abschätzung des potenziellen Ausmaßes des Langlebigkeitsrisikos im Mittelpunkt des ersten Teils. In einer Simulation wird die Wechselbeziehung von Langlebigkeits- und Investmentrisiko in Rentenportfolios erörtert. Sie verdeutlicht die Unterschiede beider Risikoarten, zeigt jedoch für das Langlebigkeitsrisiko feinere Muster, die aufgrund fehlender Kapitalmarktinstrumente nicht vollständig abgesichert werden können. Typische Risikomanagement-Optionen erweisen sich in Bezug auf das Langlebigkeitsrisiko überwiegend als wenig hilfreich oder sinnvoll. Einzig ein verändertes aktuarielles Produktdesign in Form einer mortalitätsindexierten Leibrente (Mortality-Indexed Annuity) verspricht eine signifikante Reduktion des Risikos für Versicherer. Dieser Vorteil bestätigt sich in einer weiteren Simulation auch aus Kundenperspektive, so dass diese Produktidee dazu beitragen könnte, Angebot und Nachfrage in einem unterentwickelten Markt für private Rentenversicherungen zu stärken. The demographic transition and increasing life expectancies have increasingly been discussed also in the general public. As a consequence, reduced social security pensions increasingly challenge individuals’ retirement funding to adequately manage the individual longevity risk. In addition, pension providers face the uncertainty regarding future mortality development. The present work sketches the underlying demographic development and distinguishes different forms of longevity risk. Potential drawbacks with respect to its insurability represent natural starting points for a discussion of adequate insurance contract design. Besides cohort effects in mortality reduction, for which suitable measures and criteria to identify so called "select cohorts" are discussed, an appraisal of the potential financial impact of longevity risk is a key objective here. Further insight into its relationship to and interaction with investment risk in life annuity portfolios are the main objective of a simulation study. Although capital market risks exert a stronger direct influence on an insurer’s technical result, longevity risk turns out to be of a more subtle nature. However, this risk cannot yet be hedged with the existing capital market instruments and thus appears worthwhile to be further analyzed. Typical risk management tools prove to be less apt upon closer inspection. Solely, a modified actuarial product design in the form of a life annuity with mortality-indexed benefits shows promise for reducing insurers’ exposure. The advantageousness of such a product concept can also be confirmed from a policyholder’s perspective by means of a further simulation study so that it might contribute to stimulate supply and demand in the underdeveloped market for life annuities.

Download or read book Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk written by Andrew J. G. Cairns and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this article we review the state of play in the use of stochastic models for the measurement and management of longevity risk. A focus of the discussion concerns how robust these models are relative to a variety of inputs: something that is particularly important in formulating a risk management strategy. On the modeling front much still needs to be done on robust multipopulation mortality models, and on the risk management front we need to develop a better understanding of what the objectives are of pension plans that need to be optimized. We propose a variety of ways forward on both counts.

Download or read book Multi Population Heat Wave Mortality Models for Longevity Risk Pricing and Hedging written by Sixian Tang and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past several decades, human life expectancy has been increasing rather consistently, driving concerns about longevity risk for pension plans and annuity providers. While extrapolative methods assume continued mortality declines, recent years have seen stagnation or even declines in life expectancy in some developed countries due to decaying transient mortality reductions. In response, a heat wave mortality model was developed to divide mortality improvements into a background level captured by classical mortality models and temporary improvements described by a heat wave component. We propose two multi-population heat wave models to investigate the impact of stalling mortality improvements on longevity risk management. These models provide a parsimonious way to depict the latest mortality developments and produce forecasts that are more in line with recent observations. A hedging exercise using country-level mortality data reveals that our proposed models suggest a tolerance for higher risk premium embedded in longevity swaps before the hedge becomes financially infeasible. However, hedge effectiveness can decrease by 15% when the reference and book populations involved in a longevity swap do not share the same path of transient mortality rates. Overall, our study emphasises the importance of accounting for stalling mortality improvements when managing longevity risk and provides a practical framework for doing so using multi-population heat wave models.

Download or read book Managing Longevity Risk written by Hong Li and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Longevity Risk Management written by Kenneth Qian Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Longevity risk management is becoming increasingly important in the pension and life insurance industries. The unexpected mortality improvements observed in recent decades are posing serious concerns to the financial stability of defined-benefit pension plans and annuity portfolios. It has recently been argued that the overwhelming longevity risk exposures borne by the pension and life insurance industries may be transferred to capital markets through standardized longevity derivatives that are linked to broad-based mortality indexes. To achieve the transfer of risk, two technical issues need to be addressed first: (1) how to model the dynamics of mortality indexes, and (2) how to optimize a longevity hedge using standardized longevity derivatives. The objective of this thesis is to develop sensible solutions to these two questions. In the first part of this thesis, we focus on incorporating stochastic volatility in mortality modeling, introducing the notion of longevity Greeks, and analysing the properties of longevity Greeks and their applications in index-based longevity hedging. In more detail, we derive three important longevity Greeks--delta, gamma and vega--on the basis of an extended version of the Lee-Carter model that incorporates stochastic volatility. We also study the properties of each longevity Greek, and estimate the levels of effectiveness that different longevity Greek hedges can possibly achieve. The results reveal several interesting facts. For example, we found and explained that, other things being equal, the magnitude of the longevity gamma of a q-forward increases with its reference age. As with what have been developed for equity options, these properties allow us to know more about standardized longevity derivatives as a risk mitigation tool. We also found that, in a delta-vega hedge formed by q-forwards, the choice of reference ages does not materially affect hedge effectiveness, but the choice of times-to-maturity does. These facts may aid insurers to better formulate their hedge portfolios, and issuers of mortality-linked securities to determine what security structures are more likely to attract liquidity. We then move onto delta hedging the trend and cohort components of longevity risk under the M7-M5 model. In a recent project commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the Life and Longevity Markets Association, a two-population mortality model called the M7-M5 model is developed and recommended as an industry standard for the assessment of population basis risk. We develop a longevity delta hedging strategy for use with the M7-M5 model, taking into account of not only period effect uncertainty but also cohort effect uncertainty and population basis risk. To enhance practicality, the hedging strategy is formulated in both static and dynamic settings, and its effectiveness can be evaluated in terms of either variance or 1-year ahead Value-at-Risk (the latter is highly relevant to solvency capital requirements). Three real data illustrations are constructed to demonstrate (1) the impact of population basis risk and cohort effect uncertainty on hedge effectiveness, (3) the benefit of dynamically adjusting a delta longevity hedge, and (3) the relationship between risk premium and hedge effectiveness. The last part of this thesis sets out to obtain a deeper understanding of mortality volatility and its implications on index-based longevity hedging. The volatility of mortality is crucially important to many aspects of index-based longevity hedging, including instrument pricing, hedge calibration, and hedge performance evaluation. We first study the potential asymmetry in mortality volatility by considering a wide range of GARCH-type models that permit the volatility of mortality improvement to respond differently to positive and negative mortality shocks. We then investigate how the asymmetry of mortality volatility may impact index-based longevity hedging solutions by developing an extended longevity Greeks framework, which encompasses longevity Greeks for a wider range of GARCH-type models, an improved version of longevity vega, and a new longevity Greek known as `dynamic delta'. Our theoretical work is complemented by two real-data illustrations, the results of which suggest that the effectiveness of an index-based longevity hedge could be significantly impaired if the asymmetry in mortality volatility is not taken into account when the hedge is calibrated.