Download or read book National Defense Intelligence College Paper Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers an Experiment in Applying Structured Methods Involving Various Scenarios and Two Tailed Tests written by Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2018-01-15 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. In clear, articulate, unmistakable language, Master Sergeant Folker's learned thesis sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The controversy is largely one-sided, because proponents of intuitive analysis see no purpose in debating the issue, as they are completely satisfied with the status quo. It is only the structuring enthusiasts who see a need for drastic change in the way analysis is conducted. Because, as Folker points out, supporters of the status quo include not only most analysts but most commanders as well, the structuring enthusiasts have never made progress in reforming the other side. And they won't make any progress until the superiority of structured analysis over intuitive analysis is proved, which Folker has taken a first giant step in doing. And it is precisely on this point that Folker challenges the Intelligence Community-- indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well--to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive. Given the wide range of available structuring techniques, each one should be tested in competition with intuition. There are many myths prevalent in the analytic community, public and private, concerning structured analysis: It is time-consuming and overly complicated; it eliminates the indispensable role of intuition; it involves numbers and arcane formulae that render analysis mechanical and devoid of creative solutions; and so on. Tests like Folker's will surely dispose of these myths and demonstrate the immense value and power of structuring.His thesis, moreover, should encourage students to undertake research experiments that challenge long-held beliefs and test new theories of military interest. JMIC students are especially well placed to conduct thoughtful, creative research because they bring to this scholarly environment a rich mixture of background and viewpoints, and because they remain vitally involved in the business of wringing meaning from a great variety of intelligence information.Topics and subjects include: qualitative analysis, structured methodologies, case studies, scenarios, two-tailed tests.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers written by Robert D. Folker and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A growing number of JMIC students have began to incorporate replicable research design into their theses. This distillation of Master Sergeant Folker's theses shows how fruitful this approach can be. By taking advantage of on-site research funds available from the College, he managed, in brief visits to four Unified Command Joint Intelligence Centers, to carry out a controlled experiment to measure the impact of analyst familiarity with and use of one structured analytic technique hypothesis testing. His findings, if corroborated by follow-on studies, could have a substantial impact on Intelligence Community analytical practices, and even some influence on how senior policy officials react to analytical products. Managers of analytical personnel might also note that structured methods would appear, from this study of non-specialized joint intelligence center analysts, to be useful to specialized analysts who may be required to move beyond their areas of deep expertise to cover new or unfamiliar assignments.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis in Theatre Joint Intelligence Centers an Experiment in Applying Structured Methods written by Msgt Robert D Folker Jr and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013-01-19 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The author challenges the Intelligence Community-indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well-to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive.
Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis Structured Analytic Techniques in Action written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title contains 12 cases in intelligence analysis. It is part of a larger case archive of (initally) about 20 cases.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book National Defense Intelligence College Paper written by Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. Topics and subjects include: interrogation of terrorists, the McCain Amendment, KUBARK counterintelligence interrogation, MKULTRA, CIA, torture, pain and physical discomfort, sleeploss and deprivation, sensory deprivation, subliminal persuasion, mechanical detection of deception, polygraphy, psychophysiological mechanisms, electrogastrogram, eye blinks, saccades, and fixations, voice stress analysis, thermal imaging, truth serums and narcoanalysis, sodium amytal, neurological mechanisms, transcranial magnetic stimulation, electroencephalography (EEG), functional MRI, communist interrogation methods, HUMINT, criminal custodial interrogations, good cop / bad cop, FBI training, FLETC, detective case studies, OODA loop negotiations. Educing Information is a profoundly important book because it offers both professionals and ordinary citizens a primer on the "science and art" of both interrogation and intelligence gathering. Because this is a book written by and for intelligence professionals, it starts exactly where one might expect it to start - with a superb discussion of the costs and benefits of various approaches to interrogation. For those who are unschooled in the art and science of intelligence gathering, careful study of the table of contents is perhaps the best way to decide which of the papers would provide the most convenient portal through which to enter a realm that is, by the admission of the authors themselves, both largely unexplored and enormously important to our national security. The excellent paper on the "KUBARK Counterintelligence Interrogation Review" provided just the historical and theoretical background needed. Don't expect Educing Information to become required reading among the Hollywood screen writer set anytime soon, but it certainly should be. All of us could learn quite a lot. In World War II, the United States military developed a secret "offensive" program, called MIS-Y, designed to obtain intelligence from captured adversaries. This "educing information" program (though it was not described as such at the time) was designed to obtain intelligence from senior German officials, officers, and scientists in U.S. custody. German officers, scientists, and officials were monitored on a 24-hour basis; information was also collected from them while they were in formal interrogation sessions, while they conversed with their roommates and "colleagues," and at other times. The information was analyzed on an ongoing basis, with dossiers of the internees updated regularly. Intelligence was developed and disseminated to military commands and organizations. The MIS-Y program ended with the conclusion of WWII. With the attacks of 11 September 2001, and the initiation of the Global War on Terrorism, the Intelligence Community plunged into activities that, of necessity, involved efforts to obtain information from persons in U.S. custody who at least initially appeared uncooperative. At holding facilities in Afghanistan, Cuba, Iraq, and perhaps other sites, active duty military personnel, reservists, intelligence officers, law enforcement agents, contracted interrogators, and others worked to glean information and create intelligence that might help prevent terrorist attacks and contribute to national security. Since there had been little or no development of sustained capacity for interrogation practice, training, or research within intelligence or military communities in the post-Soviet period, many interrogators were forced to "make it up" on the fly. This shortfall in advanced, research-based interrogation methods at a time of intense pressure from operational commanders to produce actionable intelligence from high-value targets may have contributed significantly to the unfortunate cases of abuse that have recently come to light.
Download or read book Quantitative Intelligence Analysis written by Edward Waltz and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.
Download or read book Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Download or read book Role of Rhetorical Theory in Military Intelligence Analysis A Soldier s Guide to Rhetorical Theory written by Gary H. Mills and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Wayne Michael Hall and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2009-12-22 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.
Download or read book Educing Information written by and published by Center for Strategic Intelligence Research Joint. This book was released on 2006 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book China s Grand Strategy written by Andrew Scobell and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2020-07-27 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
Download or read book Assessing Irregular Warfare A Framework for Intelligence Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this study was to assist the Department of the Army's National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular warfare (IW). To do this, RAND was to develop an analytic framework for IW that could be used as the basis for an educational and training curriculum that would enhance NGIC analysts' capabilities for assessing IW situations. The outcomes of IW situations depend on both the level of one's understanding of the population and the deftness with which non-military and indirect means are employed to influence and build legitimacy. Accordingly, the study team's principal efforts were devoted to developing an analytic framework for understanding IW situations, whether population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) or counterterrorism, that focused on "irregular features" of the operating environment -- that is, the central environmental and operational variables whose interplay determines the overall trajectory of an irregular conflict toward either success or failure. The central idea of the framework is that it is an analytic procedure by which an analyst, beginning with a generic and broad understanding of a conflict and its environment and then engaging in successively more-focused and more-detailed analyses of selective topics, can develop an understanding of the conflict and can uncover the key drivers behind such phenomena as orientation toward principal protagonists in the conflict, mobilization, and recruitment, and choice of political bargaining or violence. Put another way, the framework allows the analyst to efficiently decompose and understand the features of IW situations -- whether they are of the population-centric or the counterterrorism variety -- by illuminating areas in which additional detailed analysis could matter and areas in which it probably will not matter. This analytic procedure involves three main activities and eight discrete steps.
Download or read book Integrated Defense Lessons Learned from Joint Base Balad written by Joseph A. Milner and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs written by Richard L. Kugler and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2006 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It is a philosophical and conceptual book for helphing people think deeply, clearly, and insightfully about complex policy issues. This books reflects the viewpoint that the best policies normally come from efforts to synthesize competing camps by drawing upon the best of each of them and by combining them to forge a sensible whole. While this book is written to be reader-friendly, it aspires to in-depth scholarship.
