Download or read book Naive Decision Making written by T. W. Körner and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-16 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future? Naive Decision Making presents the mathematical basis for making decisions where the outcome may be uncertain or the interests of others have to taken into consideration. Professor Körner takes the reader on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making, with pithy observations, anecdotes and quotations. Topics include probability, statistics, Arrow's theorem, Game Theory and Nash equilibrium. Readers will also gain a great deal of insight into mathematics in general and the role it can play within society. Intended for those with elementary calculus, this book is ideal as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Engaging and intriguing, it will also appeal to all those of a mathematical mind. To aid understanding, many exercises are included, with solutions available online.
Download or read book Naive Decision Making written by T. W. Ko ̈rner and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes readers on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making; the only prerequisite is elementary calculus.
Download or read book Naive Decision Making written by T. W. Körner and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-16 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future? Naive Decision Making presents the mathematical basis for making everyday decisions, which my often be based on very little or uncertain data. Professor Körner takes the reader on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making, with relatable observations, anecdotes and quotations. Topics include probability, statistics, Arrow's theorem, Game Theory and Nash equilibrium. Readers will also gain a great deal of insight into mathematics in general and the role it can play within society. Suitable for those with elementary calculus, this book is ideal as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Engaging and intriguing, it will also appeal to all those of a mathematical mind. To aid understanding, many exercises are included, with solutions available online.
Download or read book Naive Resolute Or Sophisticated A Study of Dynamic Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses--to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naive or resolute (with slightly more being naive) but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.
Download or read book Decision Making and Action written by Jean-Charles Pomerol and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-27 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder - everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.
Download or read book Decision Making written by Ray Crozier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-09-11 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an exciting new collection of recent research on the actual processes that humans use when making decisions in their everyday lives and in business situations. The contributors use cognitive psychological techniques to break down the constituent processes and set them in their social context. The contributors are from many different countries and draw upon a wide range of techniques, making this book a valuable resource to cognitive psychologists in applied settings, economists and managers.
Download or read book Decision Making written by Byron M. Roth and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2002-07 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text, written by a philosopher and a social psychologist, emphasizes concrete applications of decision research to problems of everyday living, as well as to business, social, and political issues. The text contains scores of interesting examples and problems for analysis, ranging from personal decisions about medical treatment to Truman's decision to use the atomic bomb. There is no other text with such a wide-ranging coverage, with so practical an orientation, with such clear descriptions of the steps to effective decision making, and with so many end-of-chapter problems for analysis and practice.
Download or read book Na ve Advice in Financial Decision Making Hidden Costs of a Free Offer written by Julia Sprenger and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making written by Barry F. Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Knowledge Elicitation of Recognition primed Decision Making written by Gary A. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A Critical Decision Method (CDM) has been developed for knowledge elicitation. The CDM, an extension of the critical incident technique, includes protocol analysis and memory recall tasks to study cognitive performance. A set of probes is employed to trace the development of situation assessment during critical incidents, and to determine the decision strategies used. The outputs of the method include inventories of the critical cues, graphic portrayals of the situation assessment process, and categorization of the decision strategies. Thus far, the method has been used with a variety of decisions and appears especially well suited to studying cognitive performance in naturalistic settings. It also appears valuable for addressing the highly skilled decision maker, and for eliciting the analytical and perceptual bases of proficient performance. Applications have been made for training, decision support systems, and the development and evaluation of knowledge based systems." -- Abstract.
Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Kerstin Preuschoff and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2015-06-16 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
Download or read book Decision Theory written by Kevin Roebuck and published by Tebbo. This book was released on 2011 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision. It is very closely related to the field of game theory. This book is your ultimate resource for Decision Theory. Here you will find the most up-to-date information, analysis, background and everything you need to know. In easy to read chapters, with extensive references and links to get you to know all there is to know about Decision Theory right away, covering: Causal decision theory, Decision theory, Evidential decision theory, 0-1 loss function, Action axiom, Admissible decision rule, Aggregated Indices Randomization Method, Ambiguity aversion, Analysis paralysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Analytic network process, Anthony Triangle, Applied information economics, Behavioral operations research, Belief decision matrix, Belief structure, Binary decision, Brown Gibson Model, Business rules engine, Buyer decision processes, Cause-effect graph, Choice, Choice architecture, Choice-supportive bias, Choquet integral, Clarity test, Clinical decision support system, Cognitive bias, Cognitive inertia, Collaborative method, Connectionist expert system, Consensus decision-making, Consensus-seeking decision-making, Consensus-expectations gap, Cost-benefit analysis, Crossover voting, Cumulative prospect theory, Decision aids, Decision analysis, Decision analysis cycle, Decision engineering, Decision making, Decision making models, Decision making software, Decision matrix, Decision model, Decision rule, Decision support system, Decision table, Decision tree, Decision-matrix method, Decision-theoretic rough sets, Decoy effect, Deployment cost-benefit selection in physiology, Distinction bias, Dominating decision rule, Dynamic decision making, Economic appraisal, Election, ELECTRE, Ellsberg paradox, Emotional bias, Emotions in decision making, ERulemaking, European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding, Evidence-based design, Evidential reasoning approach, Executive information system, Expected value of including uncertainty, Expected value of perfect information, Expected value of sample information, Expert system, Expert systems for mortgages, Faustmann's formula, Flipism, Fuzzy-trace theory, Gittins index, Group decision making, Health management system, Hierarchical Decision Process, High-dimensional statistics, Homothetic preferences, House of Quality, Hyperbolic absolute risk aversion, IDF model, Inference engine, Influence diagram, Info-gap decision theory, Institutionalism in international relations, Intelligent decision support systems, Intertemporal choice, James-Stein estimator, Kelly criterion, Kepner-Tregoe Inc., Linear partial information, Litmus test (politics), Lock-in (decision-making), Loss aversion, Loss function, Management information system, Mean-preserving spread, Mental accounting, Minimax, Minimax estimator, Model-based reasoning, Movement pattern analysis, Multi-Attribute Global Inference of Quality, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Multicriteria classification, Multiscale decision making, Naive diversification, Nash equilibrium, Naturalistic decision making, Negotiation theory, New Approach to Appraisal, Nominal group technique, Nonstructural Fuzzy Decision Support System, Omission bias, Ophelimity, Optimal decision, Optimal stopping, Organizational ethics, Path dependence, Pignistic probability, Policy, Polychotomous key, Polynomial conjoint measurement, Potentially all pairwise rankings of all possible alternatives, Predispositioning theory, Price of stability...and much more This book explains in-depth the real drivers and workings of Decision Theory. It reduces the risk of your technology, time and resources investment decisions by enabling you to compare your understanding of Decision Theory with the objectivity of experienced professionals.
Download or read book The Manual of Strategic Economic Decision Making written by Jeff Grover and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-29 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, and 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for inexperienced learners as well as professionals, while maintaining a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theorem and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem—as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as the basis for the first book, and includes fifty 2-, 3-, and 4-event BBN of numerous variants.
Download or read book Moral Imagination written by Catherine L. Sommervold and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-11-30 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book helps break down and analyze the process of solid decision-making. From the examination of decisions that went poorly, to a concrete set of steps to consider when making new decisions, the process in this book helps decision makers feel confident in their decisions and be able to communicate their process clearly. Using the process of moral imagination to make decision includes gathering all perspectives, imagining creative solutions and choosing empathetically. While looking at real world, predominantly education-based examples, readers are encouraged to see where decisions fell apart and learn how to plan around blind spots. This process includes solutions for common decision-making mistakes and ways to reflect and improve on what is to come.
Download or read book Decisions Decisions written by David A. Welch and published by Prometheus Books. This book was released on 2009-12-02 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You''re tempted to accept a promising job offer in another city, but moving would entail considerable sacrifice on the part of your family. What should you do? Your elderly mother can no longer take care of herself but she doesn''t get along with your husband and dreads the prospect of moving into a nursing home. What is the solution? Whether you are faced with decisions momentous or trivial, how you go about resolving everyday dilemmas will definitely affect your level of satisfaction in life. In this engrossing and entertaining guide, David Welch, who has studied the decision-making process at the highest levels, shows how both the science and the art of decision-making are essential to us all. Welch lays out nine steps to effective decision-making and then demonstrates how to apply these steps to real-world situations. He gives readers the intellectual tools to assess their strengths and weaknesses and stresses that self-knowledge is critical for making the right decisions. This enjoyable, clearly written guide will enable decision-makers at every level to find the best possible solution for dilemmas both big and small.
Download or read book The Art of Decision Making written by Morton Davis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and, strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly, 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
