Download or read book Multiscale GARCH Modeling and Inference written by Lichen Chen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation behind this thesis is the shortage of formal statistical inference methods in the literature for testing whether a time series model is consistent with a sample at multiple sampling frequencies simultaneously. Most existing statistical methods for time series data focuses on a particular frequency of sample. However, in the statistical modeling of financial time series and applications, having a modeling being consistent with data at multiple frequencies can provide better interpretation of the underlying phenomenon and provide convenience in practical applications. Mantegna and Stanley (1995, 1996) and Ghashghaie, et.al.(1996) are among the pioneers in pointing out the distinctive scaling behavior in financial asset return distributions. Mandelbrot, et.al. (1997) explicitly pointed out the need to look at financial time series at multiple frequencies and use the scaling property of the data to help identify a model. Engle and Patton (2001) raised the question of whether a GARCH(1,1) model, acceptable for modeling return volatility at each single time scale from 1-day to 1-week, is consistent across scales. It is the purpose of this thesis to propose formal statistical inference methods for testing whether a given time series of ARMA and GARCH type is consistent with a sample at multiple frequencies simultaneously. To do so, we first examine the problem of model temporal aggregation. Then, based on temporal aggregation relations, we propose a novel statistical inference methods based on empirical likelihood with estimating equations. The proposed method can be used to formally test hypotheses of the following types: (i) whether a model with a fixed set of parameter values is consistent with sample at multiple frequencies; (ii) whether the model itself is capable of being consistent with the sample at multiple frequencies. Some related problems on GARCH model parameterization and parameter estimation with temporally aggregated data are also addressed.
Download or read book GARCH Models written by Christian Francq and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a comprehensive and updated study of GARCH models and their applications in finance, covering new developments in the discipline This book provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding GARCH time series models and their applications whilst presenting the most advanced results concerning the theory and practical aspects of GARCH. The probability structure of standard GARCH models is studied in detail as well as statistical inference such as identification, estimation, and tests. The book also provides new coverage of several extensions such as multivariate models, looks at financial applications, and explores the very validation of the models used. GARCH Models: Structure, Statistical Inference and Financial Applications, 2nd Edition features a new chapter on Parameter-Driven Volatility Models, which covers Stochastic Volatility Models and Markov Switching Volatility Models. A second new chapter titled Alternative Models for the Conditional Variance contains a section on Stochastic Recurrence Equations and additional material on EGARCH, Log-GARCH, GAS, MIDAS, and intraday volatility models, among others. The book is also updated with a more complete discussion of multivariate GARCH; a new section on Cholesky GARCH; a larger emphasis on the inference of multivariate GARCH models; a new set of corrected problems available online; and an up-to-date list of references. Features up-to-date coverage of the current research in the probability, statistics, and econometric theory of GARCH models Covers significant developments in the field, especially in multivariate models Contains completely renewed chapters with new topics and results Handles both theoretical and applied aspects Applies to researchers in different fields (time series, econometrics, finance) Includes numerous illustrations and applications to real financial series Presents a large collection of exercises with corrections Supplemented by a supporting website featuring R codes, Fortran programs, data sets and Problems with corrections GARCH Models, 2nd Edition is an authoritative, state-of-the-art reference that is ideal for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in business and finance seeking to broaden their skills of understanding of econometric time series models.
Download or read book PhD Series written by Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multiscale Gaussian Graphical Models and Algorithms for Large scale Inference written by Myung Jin Choi (Ph. D.) and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Graphical models provide a powerful framework for stochastic processes by representing dependencies among random variables compactly with graphs. In particular, multiscale tree-structured graphs have attracted much attention for their computational efficiency as well as their ability to capture long-range correlations. However, tree models have limited modeling power that may lead to blocky artifacts. Previous works on extending trees to pyramidal structures resorted to computationally expensive methods to get solutions due to the resulting model complexity. In this thesis, we propose a pyramidal graphical model with rich modeling power for Gaussian processes, and develop efficient inference algorithms to solve large-scale estimation problems. The pyramidal graph has statistical links between pairs of neighboring nodes within each scale as well as between adjacent scales. Although the graph has many cycles, its hierarchical structure enables us to develop a class of fast algorithms in the spirit of multipole methods. The algorithms operate by guiding far-apart nodes to communicate through coarser scales and considering only local interactions at finer scales. The consistent stochastic structure of the pyramidal graph provides great flexibilities in designing and analyzing inference algorithms. Based on emerging techniques for inference on Gaussian graphical models, we propose several different inference algorithms to compute not only the optimal estimates but also approximate error variances as well. In addition, we consider the problem of rapidly updating the estimates based on some new local information, and develop a re-estimation algorithm on the pyramidal graph. Simulation results show that this algorithm can be applied to reconstruct discontinuities blurred during the estimation process or to update the estimates to incorporate a new set of measurements introduced in a local region.
Download or read book Multi rate Modeling Model Inference and Estimation for Statistical Classifiers written by Özgür Çetin and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Change Point Analysis for Time Series written by Lajos Horváth and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Model Selection and Multimodel Inference written by Kenneth P. Burnham and published by . This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inference in Non Stationary Asymmetric GARCH Models written by Jean-Michel Zakoïan and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances and Innovations in Statistics and Data Science written by Wenqing He and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights selected papers from the 4th ICSA-Canada Chapter Symposium, as well as invited articles from established researchers in the areas of statistics and data science. It covers a variety of topics, including methodology development in data science, such as methodology in the analysis of high dimensional data, feature screening in ultra-high dimensional data and natural language ranking; statistical analysis challenges in sampling, multivariate survival models and contaminated data, as well as applications of statistical methods. With this book, readers can make use of frontier research methods to tackle their problems in research, education, training and consultation.
Download or read book Scalable and Automated Inference for Gaussian Process Models written by Trung Van Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in the Bayesian approach to supervised learning. Their ability to provide rich priors over functions is highly desirable for modeling real-world problems. Unfortunately, there exist two big challenges when doing Bayesian inference (i.e., learning the posteriors over functions) for GP models. The first is analytical intractability: The posteriors cannot be computed in closed- form when non-Gaussian likelihoods are employed. The second is scalability: The inference procedures often cannot be applied to large datasets due to their prohibitive computational costs. In this thesis, I develop practical variational inference methods to address the first challenge. Moreover, I introduce three GP models to deal with the second challenge. First, I focus on the analytical intractability challenge starting with the Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), an expressive multi-output model with adaptive, input-dependent correlations. I derive a variational inference method with two different variational distributions to approximate the true posterior of GPRN. While one distribution is a standard Gaussian, the other is a Gaussian mixture which can capture more complex, multimodal posteriors. Both distributions are shown to be statistically efficient, requiring only a linear number of parameters to represent their inherent covariance matrices. Experimental results demonstrate clear benefits of having a multimodal variational approximation in GPRN. Next, I use the same two variational distributions to address the analytical in- tractability challenge for a large class of GP models. I show that the aforementioned statistical efficiency also stands for members of this class. I further prove that the gradients required for variational learning can either be approximated efficiently or computed analytically, regardless of the likelihood functions of the models. Based on these insights, I develop an automated variational inference method for GP models with general likelihoods. The method allows easy investigation of existing or new models without having to derive model-specific inference algorithms. I then turn to the scalability challenge, focusing on single-output and multi- output regression. The underpinning technique here is sparse GP - a GP augmented with so-called inducing points/variables that lead to lower computational demands. For single-output regression, I introduce a mixture-of-experts model (FGP) where the experts are independent sparse GPs each having their own inducing variables. Their inducing inputs further define a partitioning structure of the input space, allowing an efficient inference scheme in which computation is carried out locally by the experts. FGP can thus be K2 time faster and use K2 less memory than previous GP models, where K is the number of experts. For multi-output regression, I introduce the collaborative multi-output Gaussian process model (COGP) where the outputs are linear combinations of independent sparse GPs. Their inducing points are represented as global variables which correlate the outputs for joint learning. The variables are then exploited to derive a stochastic variational inference method that can deal with a much larger number of inputs and outputs compared to previous models. Superior empirical performance of FGP and COGP is demonstrated through extensive experiments on various real-world datasets.
Download or read book Ensemble Modeling written by Gelfand and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1984-09-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book GARCH Modeling written by Suduk Kim and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Model Selection and Multimodel Inference written by Kenneth P. Burnham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-28 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique and comprehensive text on the philosophy of model-based data analysis and strategy for the analysis of empirical data. The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. It contains several new approaches to estimating model selection uncertainty and incorporating selection uncertainty into estimates of precision. An array of examples is given to illustrate various technical issues. The text has been written for biologists and statisticians using models for making inferences from empirical data.
Download or read book Multifractal Volatility written by Laurent E. Calvet and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-10-13 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Time Series written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 1045 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.
Download or read book Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance written by Pavel Cizek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-18 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance presents ready-to-use solutions, theoretical developments and method construction for many practical problems in quantitative finance and insurance. Written by practitioners and leading academics in the field, this book offers a unique combination of topics from which every market analyst and risk manager will benefit. Features of the significantly enlarged and revised second edition: Offers insight into new methods and the applicability of the stochastic technology Provides the tools, instruments and (online) algorithms for recent techniques in quantitative finance and modern treatments in insurance calculations Covers topics such as - expected shortfall for heavy tailed and mixture distributions* - pricing of variance swaps* - volatility smile calibration in FX markets - pricing of catastrophe bonds and temperature derivatives* - building loss models and ruin probability approximation - insurance pricing with GLM* - equity linked retirement plans*(new topics in the second edition marked with*) Presents extensive examples
Download or read book Data Analysis and Approximate Models written by Patrick Laurie Davies and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-07-07 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The First Detailed Account of Statistical Analysis That Treats Models as Approximations The idea of truth plays a role in both Bayesian and frequentist statistics. The Bayesian concept of coherence is based on the fact that two different models or parameter values cannot both be true. Frequentist statistics is formulated as the problem of estimating the "true but unknown" parameter value that generated the data. Forgoing any concept of truth, Data Analysis and Approximate Models: Model Choice, Location-Scale, Analysis of Variance, Nonparametric Regression and Image Analysis presents statistical analysis/inference based on approximate models. Developed by the author, this approach consistently treats models as approximations to data, not to some underlying truth. The author develops a concept of approximation for probability models with applications to: Discrete data Location scale Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Nonparametric regression, image analysis, and densities Time series Model choice The book first highlights problems with concepts such as likelihood and efficiency and covers the definition of approximation and its consequences. A chapter on discrete data then presents the total variation metric as well as the Kullback–Leibler and chi-squared discrepancies as measures of fit. After focusing on outliers, the book discusses the location-scale problem, including approximation intervals, and gives a new treatment of higher-way ANOVA. The next several chapters describe novel procedures of nonparametric regression based on approximation. The final chapter assesses a range of statistical topics, from the likelihood principle to asymptotics and model choice.
