Download or read book Monetary Transmission and Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Jan Isaac Kakes and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Asymmetry in Germany written by Jan Kakes and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Transmission in Europe written by Jan Kakes and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work focuses on different aspects of the monetary transmission process, looking at both large and small economies in the EMU. The results offer useful evaluation tools with regard to monetary policy transmission in a European perspective.

Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.

Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.

Download or read book Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited written by Jens Klose and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Download or read book Financial Markets Asymmetric Information and Macroeconomic Equilibrium written by Fabrizio Mattesini and published by Dartmouth Publishing Company. This book was released on 1993 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of the interaction between the financial sector and the sector of the economy is one of the most recent advances in macroeconomic theory. While mainstream economics assigns a passive role to the financial sector there is a growing body of literature which emphasizes the importance of financial intermediaries in explaining fluctuations and the determination of the process through which monetary policy impulses are transmitted to the rest of the economy. This literature has its origin in the models that rely on asymmetric information to explain imperfections in financial markts and in empirical evidence collected through various econometric techniques and through historical studies. This book surveys the relevant work ion the subject, evaluates the empirical evidence and the explanatory power of the theories proposed and furnishes new and empirical results.

Download or read book Changing Effects of Monetary Policy in the U S Evidence from a Time Varying Coefficient VAR written by Christian Melzer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We estimate a time-varying coefficient VAR model for the U.S. economy to analyse (i) if the effect of monetary policy on output has been changing systematically over time, and (ii) if monetary policy has asymmetric effects over the business cycle. We find that the impact of monetary policy shocks has been gradually declining over the sample period (1962-2002), as some theories of the monetary transmission mechanism imply. In addition, our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are greater in a recession than in a boom

Download or read book Asymmetry in the U S Output Inflation Nexus written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the proposition that there is a significant asymmetry in the U.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply conditions are disinflationary. The important policy implication of this asymmetry is that it can be very costly if the economy overheats because this will necessitate a severe tightening in monetary conditions in order to reestablish inflation control. The small model of the U.S. outputinflation process developed in the paper shows that the seeds of large recessions, such as that in 1981-82, are planted by allowing the economy to overheat. This type of asymmetry implies that the measure of excess demand which is appropriate in estimating the Phillips curve cannot have a zero mean; instead, this mean must be negative if inflation is to be stationary. The paper also shows that a failure to account for this important implication of asymmetry can explain why some other researchers may have been misled into falsely accepting the linear model. The empirical results presented in the paper show that the conclusions regarding asymmetry are robust to a number of tests for sensitivity to changes in the method used to estimate potential output and in the specification of the Phillips curve.

Download or read book The Business Cycle written by Ronald J Szary and published by . This book was released on 2020-02-03 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Business cycle involves many components that include past and present theories and models put forth by economists throughout history. This book summarizes the extent of the components which make up the subject. The book is divided into six parts: Part I defines the business cycle through theoretical and historical perspectives. It addresses business cycle theory, Keynesian theory, credit/debt cycles, Austrian theory, liquidity, illiquidity, and solvency. Part II continues with business cycle theory, Lutz and the equilibrium theory, Austrian business cycle theory, money, credit, and loan cycles, micro-economic fluctuations, trade and inequality, case studies, and wealth inequality. Part III addresses business cycle mechanics in the form of financial cycles, asymmetric business cycles, noninflationary demand driven cycles, perception driven fluctuations, a new Keynesian model before moving into behavioral economics. Part IV begins discussion of behavioral economics and animal spirits, including behavioral finance, economic reasoning in non human animals, animal spirits and the optimal level of the inflationary target, credit cycles, and animal spirit derived business cycles. Part V presents business cycle amendments in the form of investment, asset class performance, merits of business cycle approach, and deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch. Finally, Part VI discusses fiscal outlook in the form of macro-economical challenges, liquidity risk management, the role of monetary and fiscal policy, and fiscal policy in a depressed economy.

Download or read book Essays on Asymmetric Fiscal and Monetary Policy written by Hedieh Shadmani and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on modeling the behavior of both fiscal and monetary policy by allowing for asymmetry in preferences of the policy authorities. Whether the responses of fiscal or monetary policy to the business cycle conditions are symmetric or asymmetric is still an unresolved question. The idea behind asymmetric behavior is that policy makers take stronger action during times of distress than during ordinary times. The following chapters investigate this question empirically using data for the United States and show that policy makers do behave asymmetrically. Chapter 1 investigates whether the asymmetric monetary policy preferences for the output gap as shown in Surico (2007) disappeared during the post-Volcker period spanning 1982:04- 2003:02. The results show Surico's conclusion to be fragile as moving the starting period for the estimation a few quarters forward shows strong asymmetric policy behavior. Chapter 2 investigates U.S. fiscal policy sustainability and cyclicality in empirical structures that allow fiscal policy responses to exhibit asymmetric behavior. Two quarterly intervals of data are investigated, both of which begin in 1955. The short sample was chosen for comparison to Bohn (1998), while the full sample uses all available data. The results for a short sample that ends in the second quarter of 1995 show some differences from the results for the full sample that includes the financial crisis and the Great Recession. For the full sample, U.S. fiscal policy is asymmetrical in regard to both sustainability and cyclicality. Regarding fiscal policy sustainability, the best fitting models show evidence of fiscal policy sustainability for the short sample. However, the fiscal sustainability question does become less clear for the full sample. Regarding fiscal policy cyclicality, we find during times of distress, policy is strongly countercyclical, but during good times the results are mixed. Chapter 3 investigates the source of asymmetry in reaction of U.S. fiscal policy to business cycle conditions, as shown in chapter 2. By decomposing the fiscal policy variable into the tax revenues and the expenditures, we show that both series exhibit asymmetry in a way which is analogous to the results found in chapter 2.

Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Emrehan Aktuğ and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation investigates the nonlinear dynamics in business cycles and the transmission of monetary policy using both empirical and theoretical frameworks. Chapter 1 examines the impact of macroeconomic asymmetry on the welfare cost of business cycles. I investigate the welfare cost of business cycles due to asymmetries generated by two occasionally binding constraints (OBCs): downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) and zero lower bound (ZLB). Although business cycle volatility has declined recently as the Great Moderation literature suggests, I find that the welfare cost of business cycles has doubled due to the increased skewness of business cycles over time that is apparent in the data. In a quantitative dynamic equilibrium model that accounts for volatility and skewness changes in pre and postVolcker periods, I estimate that the welfare cost of business cycles has increased from 0.57% (in terms of consumption equivalence) in the pre-Volcker period to 0.97% in the post-Volcker period. Counterfactual analysis shows that while both OBCs play a role, the binding ZLB explains most of the welfare effects in the post-Volcker period. Policy counterfactuals indicate that increasing the inflation target from 2% to 4% reduces the skewness of business cycles and the binding rates of both OBCs, thereby leading to a significant decrease in the welfare cost, from 0.97% to 0.67%. In Chapter 2, I investigate the welfare maximizing steady-state inflation rate in a heterogeneousagent New Keynesian model with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR). After matching the annual wage change distribution in the U.S., I show that DNWR has a very significant impact on the economy when the inflation target is low. Considering the effect of the zero lower bound, price dispersion due to sticky prices, declining natural rate of interest, and lower trend productivity, I find that the optimal inflation target should be much higher than 2%, close to 7%. This result holds taking transition dynamics into account and is robust to a wide range of parameterizations. Lastly, Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of heterogeneity in wage and price stickiness on the transmission of monetary policy. Using the price and wage rigidity estimates of previous studies, I find a slightly negative correlation between wage and price rigidity at the industry level. After categorizing 3-digit industries as rigid and flexible, I analyze the impulse responses of real variables to a monetary policy shock. I document a significant response of industrial production in price-rigid industries, whereas in wage-rigid industries the response is still significant but weaker. Consistent with the theory, the response in price- and wage-flexible industries is not significant. The empirical results suggest that due to relatively lower variation in wage stickiness at the industry level, price stickiness plays a more important role in the differential response of industries to a monetary policy shock. Besides, I develop a multi-sector model incorporating sector-level heterogeneity both in wage and price rigidity into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and analyze the monetary non-neutrality for different specifications. The results of the model verify the empirical findings

Download or read book Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in Europe written by Volker Clausen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The euro and the ESCB have started in January 1999 and there is naturally a wide-ranging interest in academia and among policymakers in OECD coun tries, how successful European Monetary Union will and can be. EMU has started with 11 countries and experienced a rapid depreciation of the cur rency. With so many EU countries joining for a historical monetary union in a period of economic globalization, international financial market changes and ongoing EU enlargement the problem of monetary policy efficiency becomes crucial; especially as so many countries in the EU still have high unemploy ment rates and the euro has just started at the beginning of a cyclical upswing in the euro zone. Monetary policy is also quite crucial, because the Maastricht convergence criteria severely restrict the scope of national fiscal policy. With a very limited stock of valuable European monetary experience which could be usefully exploited by the ECB and the ESCB respectively, one naturally will appreciate advanced economic modeling of the main issues. This book takes an analytical look at the problem of asymmetric monetary transmission in Euroland. Facing the ECB's monetary policy, individual mem ber countries are likely to experience different policy effects. Countries differ in their financial structure -a well-known argument in the literature -but also in the characteristics of goods and labor markets. The latter fields have been somewhat neglected in the literature but receive broad analytical attention here.

Download or read book Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis written by Jan-Egbert Sturm and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-30 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current issues in macroeconomics.