Download or read book Momentum Trading Return Chasing and Predictable Crashes written by Benjamin Chabot and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies -- momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns -- a three factor alpha of 1 percent per month between 1927 and 2012 and 0.5 percent per month between 1867 and 1907 -- both statistically significantly different from zero. However, the momentum strategy also exposed investors to large losses (crashes) during both periods. Momentum crashes were predictable -- more likely when momentum recently performed well (both eras), interest rates were relatively low (1867-1907), or momentum had recently outperformed the stock market (CRSP era) -- times when borrowing or attracting return chasing "blind capital" would have been easier. Based on a stylized model and simulated outcomes from a richer model, we argue that a money manager has an incentive to remain invested in momentum even when the crash risk is known to be high when (1) he competes for funds from return-chasing investors and (2) he is compensated via fees that are convex in the amount of money managed and the return on that money.
Download or read book Momentum Crashes written by Heinrich Stilling and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-10-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,7, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: This paper focuses on the structures and characteristics that underlie the periods of extremely poor momentum performance and sets a special focus on the latest 2009 momentum crash period. It answers questions regarding the momentum portfolio composition during this period and quantitatively evaluates the momentum portfolio, measuring commonly applied performance indicators. The results are then contrasted with a non-crash benchmark period. The momentum strategy is a simple yet powerful trading strategy. Momentum implies that past stock prices can predict future stock price development. According to momentum theory, past winner stocks are likely to continue their good performance while past loser stocks are likely to continue to perform poorly. Hence, applying this strategy, investors buy stocks that have risen in the past the strongest and (short) sell those that have declined in value the most. This very simple decision rule is practically the only important guideline to follow regarding the momentum strategy. Surprisingly and in spite of its simplicity, momentum works and yields high excess returns. Over the 1927 to 2012 period, the portfolio of past winner stocks yields an annualized excess return of 7.157% compared to the market portfolio. Even though momentum usually performs exceptionally well, it does not offer free lunch. In the 1927 to 2012 time frame, there are a few periods of extreme momentum underperformance that could have wiped out some significant wealth. For instance, during the most recent 2009 momentum crash, this strategy would have erased 104.28% of an initial investment in just 3 months.
Download or read book Momentum Trading Return Chasing and Predictable Chrashes written by Eric Ghysels and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Cumulative Prospect Theory Myopic Loss Aversion and Momentum Crashes written by Paul Docherty and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Momentum strategies generate significant positive returns over long investment horizons; however these strategies experience infrequent periods of large negative returns. These periods are known as 'momentum crashes'. We demonstrate that the probability of a momentum crash is time-varying, increasing following periods of high market return dispersion, a proxy for a change in the market state. Under cumulative prospect theory, investors overweight the probability of a momentum crash when estimating their value function, discounting the current price of "winners" relative to "losers" resulting in positive expected future returns for the momentum strategy. Consistent with this theory, we show that momentum returns are substantially lower and volatility is higher in regimes where the probability of a momentum crash is high. Although momentum crashes are predictable they may not be exploited by institutional investors. Therefore, we argue that the negative (positive) skewness of the return distribution of winner (loser) portfolios is priced and may partly explain the momentum premium.
Download or read book Market Momentum written by Stephen Satchell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-of-a-kind reference guide covering the behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum and the implementation of momentum trading strategies Market Momentum: Theory and Practice is a thorough, how-to reference guide for a full range of financial professionals and students. It examines the behavioral and statistical causes of market momentum while also exploring the practical side of implementing related strategies. The phenomenon of momentum in finance occurs when past high returns are followed by subsequent high returns, and past low returns are followed by subsequent low returns. Market Momentum provides a detailed introduction to the financial topic, while examining existing literature. Recent academic and practitioner research is included, offering a more up-to-date perspective. What type of book is Market Momentum and how does it serve a range of readers’ interests and needs? A holistic market momentum guide for industry professionals, asset managers, risk managers, firm managers, plus hedge fund and commodity trading advisors Advanced text to help graduate students in finance, economics, and mathematics further develop their funds management skills Useful resource for financial practitioners who want to implement momentum trading strategies Reference book providing behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum Due to claims that the phenomenon of momentum goes against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, behavioral economists have studied the topic in-depth. However, many books published on the subject are written to provide advice on how to make money. In contrast, Market Momentum offers a comprehensive approach to the topic, which makes it a valuable resource for both investment professionals and higher-level finance students. The contributors address momentum theory and practice, while also offering trading strategies that practitioners can study.
Download or read book Trading on Momentum written by Ken Wolff and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 2002 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NASDAQ has reached a record 60 new highs in 1999, closing above the 4000 milestone. This record was the icing on the cake to a year of volatile victories for the NASDAQ, which experienced the largest one-year gain ever for a major market index. Momentum has never been more important. For example, the first day of tradingin 2000 saw the NASDAQ dropping close to 100 points before finishing the day with a significant gain, yet on the second day of trading, the NASDAQ experienced its worst point drop in history.
Download or read book Quantitative Momentum written by Wesley R. Gray and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-03 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The individual investor's comprehensive guide to momentum investing Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into the hands of individual investors. In his last book, Quantitative Value, author Wes Gray brought systematic value strategy from the hedge funds to the masses; in this book, he does the same for momentum investing, the system that has been shown to beat the market and regularly enriches the coffers of Wall Street's most sophisticated investors. First, you'll learn what momentum investing is not: it's not 'growth' investing, nor is it an esoteric academic concept. You may have seen it used for asset allocation, but this book details the ways in which momentum stands on its own as a stock selection strategy, and gives you the expert insight you need to make it work for you. You'll dig into its behavioral psychology roots, and discover the key tactics that are bringing both institutional and individual investors flocking into the momentum fold. Systematic investment strategies always seem to look good on paper, but many fall down in practice. Momentum investing is one of the few systematic strategies with legs, withstanding the test of time and the rigor of academic investigation. This book provides invaluable guidance on constructing your own momentum strategy from the ground up. Learn what momentum is and is not Discover how momentum can beat the market Take momentum beyond asset allocation into stock selection Access the tools that ease DIY implementation The large Wall Street hedge funds tend to portray themselves as the sophisticated elite, but momentum investing allows you to 'borrow' one of their top strategies to enrich your own portfolio. Quantitative Momentum is the individual investor's guide to boosting market success with a robust momentum strategy.
Download or read book Momentum Trading written by Priyank Gala and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is true that momentum trading tends to generate some ups and downs, it may result in a financial market crash, it depends on nature of stock market itself.This book of momentum trading will guide you through following topics: Index: Chapter 1: All about Momentum Trading Chapter 2: How to become a Momentum Trader? Chapter 3: Risks involved with momentum trading Closing on a trade before time Delayed exit from the trade Low levels of focus and concentration Failure to quickly cut losses Going against all momentum trading ethics and holding on to a stock for more than one day Chapter 4: Proper selection of stocks for momentum trading Chapter 5: Optimum time for trading Chapter 6: Why volume is important? Chapter 7: Formulating proper covered calls Chapter 8: Strategy used for momentum trading Chapter 9: A trade going wrong - identifying a situation Chapter 10: Reasons why people choose momentum trading
Download or read book Momentum Crashes written by Kent Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in "panic" states - following market declines and when market volatility is high - and are contemporaneous with market rebounds. We show that the low ex-ante expected returns in panic states are consistent with a conditionally high premium attached to the option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe Ratio of a static momentum strategy, and is not explained by other factors. These results are robust across multiple time periods, international equity markets, and other asset classes.
Download or read book Trading Momentum written by Casey Boon and published by Judith Laverty. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Country Asset Allocation written by Adam Zaremba and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-26 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demonstrates how quantitative country-level investment strategies can be successfully employed to manage money in international markets. It offers a range of state-of-the-art quantitative strategies, describing their theoretical bases, implementation details, and performance in over 70 countries between 1995 and 2015. International diversification has long been a key to stable investing. However, the increased integration and openness of global financial markets has led to rising correlations between stock market returns in particular countries, driving down the benefits of diversification and increasing the importance of country selection strategies as part of an investment process. Zaremba and Shemer explain the efficiency of quantitative investing, which captures huge amounts of data of limited scope very quickly. In the traditional approach, this data compilation is an immense undertaking, limited in scope and vulnerable to behavioral errors, but this can be overcome with the help of a new paradigm of quantitative investment at the country level. Quantitative country asset allocation can be efficiently accomplished by using wealth insights that have been generated in the academic literature, discovering many anomalies and regular patterns in asset prices. Armed with this information, investors and managers can process large amounts of data more efficiently when deciding to invest in ETFs, index funds, or futures markets.
Download or read book Momentum Crashes and Variations to Market Liquidity written by Hilal Anwar Butt and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the variation in market liquidity is an important determinant of momentum crashes that is independent of other known explanations surfaced on this topic. This relationship is driven by the asymmetric large return sensitivity of short-leg of momentum portfolio to changes in market liquidity that flares the tail risk of momentum strategy in panic states. This identification explains the forecasting ability of known predictors of tail risk of momentum strategy such that the contemporaneous increase in market liquidity predominantly sums up the trademark negative relationship between predictors and future momentum returns. Our results are robust using a different momentum portfolio and alternative measures of market liquidity that make a substantial part of the common source of variation in aggregate liquidity.
Download or read book Cumulative Prospect Theory and Momentum Crashes written by Paul Docherty and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide robust evidence of momentum crashes within the Asian region, which occurred following the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. The probability of a momentum crash is time-varying; it increases after periods of low market returns and high cross-sectional return dispersion when the beta of the zero-investment momentum portfolio becomes negative. Under cumulative prospect theory, investors overweight the probability of a momentum crash when estimating their value function, resulting in the price of “winners” decreasing and future average returns increasing. Consistent with this theory, we show that momentum returns in Asia are substantially lower following periods where the probability of a momentum crash is higher. Therefore, we argue that the negative (positive) skewness of winner (loser) portfolios is priced and may explain the momentum premium.
Download or read book Crowded Trades Short Covering and Momentum Crashes written by Philip Yan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite momentum's strong historical performance, its returns have large negative skewness and occasionally experiences persistent strings of sharp negative returns, referred as "momentum crashes" in the recent literature. I argue that momentum crashes are due to crowded trades which push prices away from fundamentals leading to strong reversals, and exacerbated by limits of arbitrage being more severe in the short-leg due to impediments to short selling. Using short interest and institutional ownership data together to measure the "crowdedness" of momentum, I show that momentum crashes can be avoided in the cross section by shorting only non-crowded losers. There is considerably more short-covering during times when momentum fails. I show using high frequency short sale transactions data that short covering is especially severe in the crowded loser portfolio. A placebo test using a set of 63 futures contracts show that momentum crashes do not exist in futures market after market exposure is correctly hedged, which is consistent with my hypothesis.
Download or read book Stock Market Rebound written by Scott Douglas and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2020-06-11 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want to quickly rebound from the economic downturn, then keep reading ... The global coronavirus pandemic and resulting shutdown of the economy have left many devastated. Not a single family in North America has been spared. The impact can be felt everywhere. Massive job losses, the shutdown of entire industries, travel restrictions, and social distancing are now the norm. We're living within a new world order. And we're all feeling the financial impact of this turn of events. Many Americans have lost entire fortunes as a result of the recent stock market meltdown. Seeing your investment portfolio being decimated in the wake of this global health crisis is disheartening. How do you fathom even getting back to even? Despite being caught in the middle of this recent economic downturn, things will REBOUND. All major market crashes turn around. Isn't it about time for you to create your own economic stimulus package? All major stock market corrections create investment opportunities enabling you to take advantage of mispricings in the stock market. Knowing how to capitalize on this turn of events becomes the challenge. This is where Stock Market Rebound comes in. This step-by-step guide takes you by the hand and walks you through a momentum investing approach that takes advantage of stock market corrections. Not all companies were impacted by the downturn of events. Some have been unfairly dragged down with the overall market making them potential momentum plays. When the stock market rebounds, and it always does, these stocks should see some major stock price appreciation. Momentum investing is not new. What is new is the context and the approach being used in this resource. Capital preservation should be foremost on your mind. Any investment system needs to take this new reality into consideration. Societal changes as to how we'll live our lives moving forward has evolved. This is why the momentum investing approach outlined in this book incorporates covered call writing into the discussion to protect your hard-earned capital. Not only will you learn how to reduce risk, you'll also learn how to generate cash flow into your brokerage account when the momentum behind a stock slows. Important knowledge to tap into, right? You're about to discover: When to expect a rebound in the economy and what it might look like? What 3 types of companies make excellent momentum picks? Why you should avoid the BEACH industries? Which industries will bounce back quickly? What handful of indicators are the most helpful in analyzing prospects? How to safely enter the market and best time momentum plays? How do you limit risk while augmenting your returns? When to use covered calls to protect your positions and generate monthly income? How to create a simple, effective momentum investing plan? and much more... Not only that, you'll also see firsthand how various investment scenarios could play out. An entire section is devoted to exploring several case studies so you can better apply the concepts being discussed in your guide. Even if you've never invested in the stock market before, Stock Market Rebound can provide you with enough insights to safely enter and exit momentum plays. AND even if you don't have a lot of investment capital, you can still benefit Your detailed guide works on the premise that most investors don't have a lot of capital to invest in the markets. Hence, the emphasis on working with small, manageable positions. The markets aren't going to wait for you. Isn't it about time to take back control? So, if you want to quickly rebound from the latest economic downturn, then scroll up and click the "Add to Cart" button now!
Download or read book Dynamic Momentum and Contrarian Trading written by Victoria Dobrynskaya and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High momentum returns cannot be explained by risk factors, but they are negatively skewed and subject to occasional severe crashes. I explore the timing of momentum crashes and show that momentum strategies tend to crash in 1-3 months after the local stock market plunge. Next, I propose a simple dynamic trading strategy which coincides with the standard momentum strategy in calm times, but switches to the opposite contrarian strategy after a market crash and keeps the contrarian position for three months, after which it reverts back to the momentum position. The dynamic momentum strategy turns all major momentum crashes into gains and yields an average return, which is about 1.5 times as high as the standard momentum return. The dynamic momentum returns are positively skewed and not exposed to risk factors, have high Sharpe ratio and alpha, persist in different time periods and geographical markets around the globe.
Download or read book Momentum Stock Selection Using The Momentum Method For Maximum Profits written by Jake Bernstein and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2001-12-21 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proven techniques to improve market-timing accuracy Written by internationally recognized trader, author, and researcher Jake Bernstein, Momentum Stock Selection details a method of combining market momentum with innovative risk management to dramatically increase profitable opportunities for both short- and long-term traders. After briefly defining market timing and market momentum, Bernstein heads directly to the heart of the bookhow any trader can use momentum to increase trading effectiveness. Employing numerous real-life examples and illustrations to explain key points, he gives the reader inside details on: How to choose the right time period for charting Red flags that point out when a signal is wrong A five-step method for determining momentum-divergence patterns An actual "walk-through" of a momentum-divergence signal as it develops
