Download or read book MODERN RISK QUANTIFICATION IN COMPLEX PROJECTS written by RAYDUGIN. and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error. The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

Download or read book Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-07-23 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error. In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

Download or read book Risk Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2024-05-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.

Download or read book Risk Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis written by Vajjhala, Narasimha Rao and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-06-24 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risks can be identified, evaluated, and mitigated, but the underlying uncertainty remains elusive. Risk is present across all industries and sectors. As a result, organizations and governments worldwide are currently experiencing higher levels of risk and have had to make risky decisions during times of crisis and instability, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and climate perils, and global tensions surrounding terrorism. It is essential that new studies are undertaken to understand strategies taken during these times to better equip business leaders to navigate risk management in the future. Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis examines the impact of crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, which has tested organizational risk and contingency management plans. It provides significant insights that should benefit business leaders on risk and contingency management in times of crisis. It emphasizes strategies that leaders can undertake to identify potential future risks and examines decisions made in past crises that can act as examples of what to do and what not to do during future crisis events. Covering topics such as auditing theories, risk assessment, and educational inequality, this premier reference source is a crucial resource for business leaders, executives, managers, decision makers, policymakers, students, government officials, entrepreneurs, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Download or read book Risk Management in Engineering and Construction written by Stephen Ogunlana and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-09 with total page 709 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today’s businesses are driven by customer ‘pull’ and technological ‘push’. To remain competitive in this dynamic business world, engineering and construction organizations are constantly innovating with new technology tools and techniques to improve process performance in their projects. Their management challenge is to save time, reduce cost and increase quality and operational efficiency. Risk management has recently evolved as an effective method of managing both projects and operations. Risk is inherent in any project, as managers need to plan projects with minimal knowledge and information, but its management helps managers to become proactive rather than reactive. Hence, it not only increases the chance of project achievement, but also helps ensure better performance throughout its operations phase. Various qualitative and quantitative tools are researched extensively by academics and routinely deployed by practitioners for managing risk. These have tremendous potential for wider applications. Yet the current literature on both the theory and practice of risk management is widely scattered. Most of the books emphasize risk management theory but lack practical demonstrations and give little guidance on the application of those theories. This book showcases a number of effective applications of risk management tools and techniques across product and service life in a way useful for practitioners, graduate students and researchers. It also provides an in-depth understanding of the principles of risk management in engineering and construction.

Download or read book Managing the Continuum Certainty Uncertainty Unpredictability in Large Engineering Projects written by Franco Caron and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-24 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.

Download or read book Data Analytics for Engineering and Construction Project Risk Management written by Ivan Damnjanovic and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes. The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments. While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory. The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters. In Part I the authors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.

Download or read book Critical risks in large construction projects and their consideration in cost estimation written by Martin Henschelchen and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2022-05-24 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2022 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,5, University of Western Sydney, course: Financial Management of Projects, language: English, abstract: Early cost estimating has often become a major challenge in large projects. Budget overruns occur time and again, which leads regularly to conflicts between investors, project teams, contractors, and other stakeholders. The cause for these are several factors such as inadequate consideration of project risks, insufficient project information and an unclear project scope, or unforeseen project complexities. The following literature review, therefore, observes the risk identification of major construction and infrastructure projects as one of the major reasons for cost overruns. This review aims to deliver an overview of the different approaches to the identification of risks during the early stage of large projects. In this context, however, no rigid definition of the term "major project" has yet emerged. There is no fixed rule when a project is a major project and should be organized likewise. A major project is characterized by the fact that it differs from the client's usual projects in terms of its planning and implementation duration, its complexity, the large number of participants, or its high social significance. In contrast to small and medium-sized construction projects, where routine can be applied, extensive infrastructure and construction projects are often a multitude of different tasks with several interconnections and interfaces. They often require more complicated organizational structures, and accordingly many risk management requirements. Whether a project is considered a major project depends on the specific individual case. In these projects, decision-makers often rely on intuition, judgment, and their personal experiences to conduct risk assessments and cost estimates. Although various risk assessment models have been developed in recent years, the lack of precise and general data to examine risk effects usually leads to inconsistencies and inaccuracies in risk assessment. This often results in significant budget overruns for large construction and infrastructure projects.

Download or read book Project Risk Management Guidelines written by Dale Cooper and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2004-11-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes philosophies, principles, practices and techniques for managing risk in projects and procurements, with a particular focus on complex or large-scale activities. The authors cover the basics of risk management in the context of project management, and outline a step-by-step approach. They then extend this approach into specialised areas of procurement (including tender evaluation, outsourcing and Public-Private Partnerships), introducing technical risk assessment tools and processes for environmental risk management. Finally they consider quantitative methods and the way they can be used in large projects. International case studies are included throughout.

Download or read book Managing Risk in Construction Projects written by Nigel J. Smith and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1999 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the purpose and value of risk management and illustrates its application to a variety of engineering projects. It shows how the findings of risk analysis can be implemented in practical project management decision making.

Download or read book Contemporary Approaches in Urbanism and Heritage Studies written by Rokhsaneh Rahbarianyazd , Editor and published by Cinius Yayınları. This book was released on 2021-08-01 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an intellectuaJ discourse and a concise compendium of current research in Architecture and Urbanism. Primarily, it is a book of readings of 24 chapters. The book brings together theories, manifestos and methodologies on contemporary architecture and urbanism to raise the understanding tor the futu re of architectur and urban planning. Ovcrall, the book aimed to establislı a bıidge between theory and practice in the built environment. Thus. it reports on the lalesi research fındings and innovative approaches. methodologies for creating, assessing. and understanding of contemporary built environment.

Download or read book Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis written by Dr David Hulett and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-09-28 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Download or read book Modeling Risk and Uncertainty in Complex Projects written by David Leo McLain and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Project Risk Management written by Michael M. Bissonette and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It's not exactly news that putting the concepts of risk management into action can help make a project more successful. In fact, a solid understanding of risk management is a vital component of any project management professional's training, regardless of the industry in which he or she might work. In today's fast-paced, constantly changing, and extremely competitive environment, risk management is more important than ever for businesses hoping to find their footing in the global market. In Project Risk Management: A Practical Implementation Approach, author Michael M. Bissonette not only provides insights into the best ways to implement the traditional techniques of risk management, but also explores innovative new methods that can help modern organizations build their culture, improve financial performance, and ultimately achieve greater success in all of their projects.