Download or read book Models of Voting in Presidential Elections written by Herbert F. Weisberg and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Chapters in this book were originally commissioned for a conference ... held at the Mershon Center on the Ohio State University campus, March 7-10, 2002"--Preface.
Download or read book Making Multicandidate Elections More Democratic written by Samuel Merrill and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-14 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses a significant area of applied social-choice theory--the evaluation of voting procedures designed to select a single winner from a field of three or more candidates. Such procedures can differ strikingly in the election outcomes they produce, the opportunities for manipulation that they create, and the nature of the candidates--centrist or extremist--whom they advantage. The author uses computer simulations based on models of voting behavior and reconstructions of historical elections to assess the likelihood that each multicandidate voting system meets political objectives. Alternative procedures abound: the single-vote plurality method, ubiquitous in the United States, Canada, and Britain; runoff, used in certain primaries; the Borda count, based on rank scores submitted by each voter; approval voting, which permits each voter to support several candidates equally; and the Hare system of successive eliminations, to name a few. This work concludes that single-vote plurality is most often at odds with the majoritarian principle of Condorcet. Those methods most likely to choose the Condorcet candidate under sincere voting are generally the most vulnerable to manipulation. Approval voting and the Hare and runoff methods emerge from the analyses as the most reliable. Originally published in 1988. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Download or read book American Presidential Elections written by Jeffrey A. Smith and published by Greenwood. This book was released on 1980 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamic Models of Voting Behavior and Spatial Models of Party Competition written by Martin J. Zechman and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Activist Mediated Model of Presidential Elections written by Ryan L. Gingerich Claassen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Voting Contagion written by Dan Braha and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. Sources of influence can be divided as external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An important question is how to disentangle the social contagion by peers from external influences. While a variety of experimental and observational studies provided insight into this problem, identifying the extent of contagion based on large-scale observational data with an unknown network structure remains largely unexplored. By bridging the gap between the large-scale complex systems perspective of collective human dynamics and the detailed approach of social sciences, we present a parsimonious model of social influence, and apply it to a central topic in political science--elections and voting behavior. We provide an analytical expression of the county vote-share distribution, which is in excellent agreement with almost a century of observed U.S. presidential election data. Analyzing the social influence topography over this period reveals an abrupt phase transition from low to high levels of social contagion, and robust differences among regions. These results suggest that social contagion effects are becoming more instrumental in shaping large-scale collective political behavior, with implications on democratic electoral processes and policies.
Download or read book Ideology and Spatial Voting in American Elections written by Stephen A. Jessee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-29 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The central feature of democracy is that the will of the people determines the policies enacted by the government. In representative democracies such as the United States, citizens influence the government primarily through voting in elections. The success of democratic governance, therefore, rests in large part on the ability of citizens to select leaders who will act in accordance with their policy preferences. In the end, a government lives up to this democratic ideal (or doesn't) through the enactment of specific policies. How, then, do citizens' votes relate to their preferences over government policy outputs? What intervening factors either assist or interfere with voters' selection of candidates who espouse views closest to their own? Understanding the relationship between citizens' policy views and their voting behavior is central to the evaluation of elections and of democratic governance more generally. This book studies the opinions of ordinary citizens on specific policies and the relationships between these policy views and people's vote choices in presidential elections. Specifically, I focus on testing the empirical implications of spatial theories of voting, which, in their simplest form, assume that each citizen's policy views can be represented by a location on some liberal-conservative policy spectrum, with candidates in a given election each taking a position on this same dimension. Each voter then casts his or her ballot for the candidate whose position is closest to the voter's own ideological location"-- Provided by publisher.
Download or read book A Cross Cultural Theory of Voter Behavior written by Wojciech Cwalina and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid development of democracy and political freedoms has created new and sophisticated psychology-based methods of influencing the way voters choose, as well as political systems based on free market principles. A Cross-Cultural Theory of Voter Behavior uses advanced empirical testing to determine whether the behavior of voters in established and emerging democracies around the world is predictable. The results of the testing suggest the theory is a ground-breaking cross-cultural model with theoretical and strategic global implications. This unique book examines the many facets of political marketing and its direct relationship with the voter. A comprehensive theory meticulously tested in the dynamic political waters of the U.S. and Europe, this text bridges the latest theoretical developments in the emerging and advanced democracies. A Cross-Cultural Theory of Voter Behavior offers an innovative and seldom seen international perspective that integrates up-to-date literature in political science with advanced political marketing to provide readers with useable, unified information. In addition, the text is replete with detailed references and illustrated with a wealth of informative tables and graphics to made pertinent data accessible and easily understood. Some of the topics discussed in A Cross-Cultural Theory of Voter Behavior include politics in an age of manufactured images, partisanship and party identification, candidate-centered politics, political cognition, social categorization of politicians, the role of advertising and emotion, among others. An ideal text for students, academics, and researchers, the information presented in A Cross-Cultural Theory of Voter Behavior is also a vital resource for political practitioners such as consultants, candidates, lobbyists, political action committees, fund-raisers, pollsters, government officials, ad specialists, journalists, public relations executives, and congressional aides.
Download or read book Votes from Seats written by Matthew S. Shugart and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Four laws of party seats and votes are constructed by logic and tested, using physics-like approaches which are rare in social sciences.
Download or read book Computer Simulations of Voting Behavior written by William R. Shaffer and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Learning by Voting written by Rebecca B. Morton and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2000-12-31 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does the sequence of presidential primaries affect the choices voters make?
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Download or read book A Unified Theory of Voting written by Samuel Merrill and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999-09-13 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Professors Merrill and Grofman develop a unified model that incorporates voter motivations and assesses its empirical predictions--for both voter choice and candidate strategy--in the United States, Norway, and France. The analyses show that a combination of proximity, direction, discounting, and party ID are compatible with the mildly but not extremely divergent policies that are characteristic of many two-party and multiparty electorates. All of these motivations are necessary to understand the linkage between candidate issue positions and voter preferences.
Download or read book Using Voter Choice Modeling to Plan the Final Campaign in Runoff Elections written by Wagner A. Kamakura and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even though runoff elections are one of the most (if not the most) common forms of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections has been rarely researched. Two-round elections provide unique opportunities for both political analyst and consultant. They allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior, rather than voting intentions, on a multi-party election on the first round, and validate their predictions on a two-party election in the final round. They provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. We use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide the political campaign in runoff elections. First, we apply a first-order Markov model to the two rounds and show that the two surviving candidates from the first round must focus their attention towards the voters for the eliminated candidates in the second round. We then apply a voter-choice model to the results from the first round in the most recent election (2014) to demonstrate how the political analyst and consultant can use the vote counts observed in the first round to better deploy the remaining campaign resources for the second round during the short time left before the final vote.
Download or read book The American Campaign Second Edition written by James E. Campbell and published by Texas A&M University Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's "theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell's cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists' ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides:a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;a historical summary of many of America's important presidential elections;a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
Download or read book Voting as a Rational Choice written by Aaron S. Edlin and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For voters with "social" preferences, the expected utility of voting is approximately independent of the size of the electorate, suggesting that rational voter turnouts can be substantial even in large elections. Less important elections are predicted to have lower turnout, but a feedback mechanism keeps turnout at a reasonable level under a wide range of conditions. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) to show how, for an individual with both selfish and social preferences, the social preferences will dominate and make it rational for a typical person to vote even in large elections; (2) to show that rational socially-motivated voting has a feedback mechanism that stabilizes turnout at reasonable levels (e.g., 50% of the electorate); (3) to link the rational social-utility model of voter turnout with survey findings on socially-motivated vote choice.
